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2019年06月25日 03:57:23    日报  参与评论()人

济南市哪家医院做孕前检查做得好山东省妇幼保健医院专科医院山东济南阳光女子医院人流医院 Julian Barnes’ The Sense of an Ending is a good novel. We know it#39;s a good novel because lots of people like it, and because it won the Man Booker, one of the biggest prizes in English-language literature. But here’s the funny thing. After the book won the prize, people didn#39;t like it as much! Its rating on the site Goods took a sudden plunge. And it wasn#39;t the only book to suffer that fate. A recent paper by sociologists Balázs Kovács and Amanda J. Sharkey studied a group of 32 English-language novels that won major literary awards. After the prize, their ratings on Goods dropped from an average of just under 4 to about 3.75. A group of comparably rated novels that were short-listed for prizes, but didn#39;t win, showed no such diminution.朱利安·巴恩斯的小说The Sense of an Ending不错。很多人都喜欢这部小说,并且它还获得了布克奖——英语文学的重量级奖项之一。但是奇怪的事儿来了。在获奖之后,人们没有从前那么喜欢这部小说了。它在Goods上的排名骤然下滑,而且它并不是唯一遭此厄运的小说。最近社会学家巴拉兹·卡瓦茨和阿曼达·J·莎克里发表了一篇论文,其中研究了一组共32部英语小说,它们都曾获得过重要的文学奖项。在获奖之后,它们在Goods上的排名平均下滑3.75到4个位次。另外一组研究对象则是入围但是最终并未获奖的小说,它们跟获奖小说的水平相当,但是却未出现如此现象。When a book wins a Booker, that ought to make us think it’s good. Every sociologist—OK, every human being over the age of 12—knows we like things more when we hear that other people like them. So what explains the Booker backlash?如果一本书能够获得布克奖,我们会理所当然的认为它是本好书。每一位社会学家,好吧,每一个12岁以上的人,都知道如果我们听说有其他人也跟我们一样喜欢一样东西,那我们会更加喜欢它。那又如何来解释“布克反弹”现象呢?At least in part, it’s a quirk of statistics called Berkson#39;s fallacy. If you know one thing about correlation, it’s that correlation is not the same as causation. Two variables, like height and math scores in school kids, may be correlated, even though being good at math doesn’t make you taller, or vice versa. What’s going on is that older kids are both taller and better at math. Correlation can arise from a common cause that drives both variables in the same direction.从某种程度来说,它是一种被称之为伯克逊谬误的统计失真。如果你对相关性略知一二,你会知道相关并不代表因果关系。比如两个变量,学生的身高和数学成绩,它们可能具有相关性。虽然数学成绩好并不能让你长高,同样的,你再长得高点,也不能提高你的数学成绩。事实是,年龄大一点的孩子通常个子高一些,同时他们的数学成绩也会好一些。基于一个共同的原因,使得两个变量朝着相同的方向发展,由此两者之间产生了相关性。But that#39;s not the only way misleading correlations can pop up. Joseph Berkson, the longtime head of the medical statistics division at the Mayo Clinic, observed in 1938 that correlations can also arise from a common effect. Berkson#39;s research was about medical data in hospitals, but it’s easier to explain the phenomenon in terms of the Great Square of Men.但是这并不是误导相关产生的唯一原因。约瑟夫·伯克逊,长期担任Mayo诊所的医学统计部领导,他在1938年发现共同的影响也可以导致相关性。伯克逊的研究是基于医院的医学数据,但是我们可以通过“大方块中的男人”这个例子,来更容易的解释这个现象。Suppose you’re a person who dates men. You may have noticed that, among the men in your dating pool, the handsome ones tend not to be nice, and the nice ones tend not to be handsome. Is that because having a symmetrical face makes you cruel? Does it mean that being nice to people makes you ugly? Well, it could be. But it doesn#39;t have to be.假设你在和男人约会。你可能会注意到,在你的候选人员中,那些帅哥的脾气更加不好,而那些友好的男人又往往更丑些。这是否意味着对人友好会把人变丑?好吧,也许是的。不过不是非得这样。Behold the Great Square of Men. (And I#39;d like to note that you can find more stunning hand-drawn illustrations just like this one in How Not to Be Wrong.)让我们回到“大方块中的男人”。(而且我想提醒你,在How Not to Be Wrong.中你会找到比下图更惊人的手绘插图)Now, let’s take as a working hypothesis that men are in fact equidistributed all over this square. In particular, there are nice handsome ones, nice ugly ones, mean handsome ones, and mean ugly ones, in roughly equal numbers.现在,让我们做一个有效的假设,即方块中的男人实际上是等分布的。更具体点说,我们把这些男人分为4类,既友好又长得帅的,友好但是长得丑的,不友好但长得帅的和不友好又长得丑的,每一类的人数都差不多。But niceness and handsomeness have a common effect: They put these men in the group of people that you notice. Be honest—the mean uglies are the ones you never even consider. So inside the Great Square is a Smaller Triangle of Acceptable Men:但是友好和帅气具有一个共同的效应:只有这些人你才会注意到。说实话,那些脾气又臭长得又丑的男人根本不在你的考虑范围之内。因此在这个大方块中,只有一个小三角才是你的选择范围。Now the source of the phenomenon is clear. The handsomest men in your triangle, over on the far right, run the gamut of personalities, from kindest to (almost) cruelest. On average, they are about as nice as the average person in the whole population, which, let’s face it, is not that nice. And by the same token, the nicest men are only averagely handsome. The ugly guys you like, though—they make up a tiny corner of the triangle, and they are pretty darn nice. They have to be, or they wouldn#39;t be visible to you at all. The negative correlation between looks and personality in your dating pool is absolutely real. But the relation isn#39;t causal. If you try to improve your boyfriend’s complexion by training him to act mean, you#39;ve fallen victim to Berkson#39;s fallacy.至此,这个现象产生的根源已经很清楚了,在你的三角中,最帅的人位于最右边的线上,它几乎囊括了人的所有品性,从最宽厚的到(几乎)最残忍的。平均而言,他们的友好程度跟全体男人的平均友好水平差不多,但是,我们必须正视,这个友好程度并不十分友好。同理可得,最友好的男人的相貌也只达到全体男人的平均水平。而那些你能看上的丑男们,他们可真是友好的不像话啊,虽然他们只占了三角中的一个很小的角落。不过他们必须得是这样的,否则怎么入得了你的法眼。约会对象的相貌和品性之间具有负相关性,这是绝对真实的。但是这种相关性并不具备因果关系。千万别想着通过训练男友行为卑劣,就能使他们的相貌增色几分,否则你就沦为伯克逊谬误的牺牲品了。The fallacy works, too, as a driver of literary snobbery. Why are popular novels so terrible? It’s not because the masses don’t appreciate quality. It’s because the novels you are the ones in the Acceptable Triangle, which are either popular or good. So within that group, the good ones are less likely to be popular, for the same reason the handsomer men are bigger jerks. If you force yourself to unpopular novels chosen essentially at random—I#39;ve been on a jury for a literary prize, so I#39;ve actually done this—you find that most of them, just like the popular ones, are pretty bad. And I imagine if you dated men chosen completely at random from OkCupid, you’d find that the less attractive men were just as jerky as the chiseled hunks. But that’s an experiment I can’t recommend, not even for the sake of mathematical enlightenment.此谬误也是文学上的势力现象产生的驱动力之一。为什么流行小说评价如此糟糕?并非是大众不懂得欣赏,而是因为每个人读的小说只在自己能接受的三角范围内,它们要么流行,要么很好。在这个范围内,好的小说更可能不那么流行,就好比那些比较帅气的男人更可能是个大混蛋!如果你强迫自己读一些完全随机选择的非流行小说(我曾经当过一个文学奖的评委,所以我确实这么干过),你会发现它们中的大多数,都非常的糟糕,就跟流行小说的表现一样。而且我能想像,如果你从OkCupid上完全随机的选择约会对象,你会发现那些不怎么具有吸引力的男人和俊朗的帅哥一样混蛋。不过我可不推荐这个实验,即便是打着数学启蒙的旗号。And now what happened to Julian Barnes is pretty clear. There are two reasons you might have The Sense of an Ending and rated it on Goods. It might be because it’s exactly the kind of novel you’re apt to like. Or it might be because it won the Booker Prize. When a book wins a prize, then its audience expands beyond the core group of fans aly predisposed to love it. That’s what every author dreams of, but more frequently inevitably means less universally liked.至此,朱利安·巴恩斯的遭遇已经相当明了。你可能已经读过The Sense of an Ending,并且在Goods上给它打了分。这其中的原因可能有两个,一个是因为它恰好就是你会喜欢的那类小说,另一个是因为它获得了布克奖。如果一本书获了奖,那么它的读者就不仅仅是那些之前就已经很热爱它的核心粉丝群体了。获奖是每一个作家梦寐以求的事情,但是一本书被读到的越频繁,喜欢它的读者的比例就越低。 /201406/305772济南阳光妇科医院治疗不孕不育好吗

德州市中医院治霉菌阴道炎怎么样市中区妇幼保健院如何 According to the Guinness Book of World Records, the hottest peppers in the world are the Carolina Reaper peppers grown in South Carolina by Ed Currie of PuckerButt Pepper Co.根据吉尼斯世界纪录的认,世界上最辣的辣椒是美国南卡罗来纳州的男子艾德-柯里种植的“卡罗来纳死神”。Currie spent more than four years working with students at Winthrop University to alter a sweet hot pepper from the Caribbean. During tests at Winthrop, the Reaper averaged just shy of 1.6 million Scoville Heat s. To put that in perspective, a standard jalapeno pepper registers around 5,000 on the Scoville scale.柯里花了四年多的时间,和温斯洛普大学的学生们一起合作,改良了一种来自加勒比海的甜辣椒。在温斯洛普大学进行的测试中,“卡罗来纳死神” 的平均辣度为惊人的160万度(以史高维尔辣度单位来衡量)。让大家有个辣度概念:正常的墨西哥辣椒约5000度。The previous record holder, the Trinidad Moruga Scorpion pepper, was measured by New Mexico State University#39;s Chile Pepper Institute with a mean of more than 1.2 million Scoville Heat s.之前“世界上最辣的辣椒”的纪录保持者是千里达魔蝎椒,根据新墨西哥州立大学辣椒研究所的测量,千里达魔鬼毒蝎椒的平均辣度为120多万。Those are just the averages… The hottest batch of Currie#39;s peppers, code named HP22B clocked in at 2.2 million on the Scoville scale.不过这也只是平均水平。卡罗来纳死神中有一批代号为HP22B的辣椒的辣度高达220万度。Currie sells Carolina Reaper seeds and hot sauces on the PuckerButt Pepper website. With names like “I Dare You Stupid” and “Purgatory,” Currie makes it fairly obvious he isn’t kidding about the heat.柯里在PuckerButt辣椒网站上出售卡罗来纳死神辣椒的种子和辣椒酱。他给这些产品命名为“我猜你没那么傻”和“炼狱”,就是想跟潜在顾客说清楚:他可没在开玩笑。This warning also helps to clarify that it might be wise to think twice before trying one of these sauces at home:他还给出了一个警告提示,提醒大家在决定买辣椒酱之前要三思而后行:“After touching or handling hot peppers always remember to wash your hands with a product containing acidity such as lime or lemon juice. Some of our peppers are smokin’ hot and if not properly handled will temporarily damage skin tissue. When sharing your hot peppers with others, please let them know to use with caution.”“在碰了我们的卡罗来纳死神后,一定记得要用酸性产品(比方说柠檬或柠檬汁)洗手。我们的辣椒真的非常非常辣,如果没有妥当处理,会对皮肤组织造成暂时伤害。在跟其他人分享让他们尝我们的辣椒时,也记得让他们小心品尝。” /201401/271216章丘市妇幼保健院体检收费标准

济南长清区妇幼保健院打胎流产好吗Thanksgiving break is here, which means it#39;s time for the “Turkey Drop”.感恩节假期来临,这也意味着“放弃火鸡”的时候到了。Many college freshmen are home this week for the first time since August. They’ll retreat to what is comfortable – spending time with family, old friends, and for some, a high-school sweetheart. Thanksgiving will also be a time for big questions, particularly for those freshmen still in high-school relationships. Did they take advantage of their first three months in college, or did they lose out by spending too much time on Skype? During their first trip home, freshmen have to decide whether they stick it out with their first love, or succumb to what is known as the “Turkey Drop”— the phenomenon of high-school couples breaking up when they come home for their first Thanksgiving.本周很多大学新生都会回到家中,这也是自八月以来的首次。他们将重返舒适的生活——与家人、老朋友、对一些人来说,还有高中时的男女朋友呆在一起。感恩节也是解决一些大问题的日子,尤其是那些还保持着高中时期情侣关系的大学新生们。他们是否充分利用了大学的前三个月呢?或者他们是否因为花费太多时间在网络电话上而过于松懈了呢?在他们第一个归家假期里,大一新生们必须要作出决定——是要继续他的初恋,还是向著名的“放弃火鸡”理论屈。(“放弃火鸡”理论是指高中情侣们纷纷在第一个感恩节放假回家时提出分手的现象。)Much of my own freshman year in college was determined by one recurring scene. A friend knocks on my door. She tells me her plans for the night – maybe a sorority party or a pregame in a friend’s room – and asks me if I want to come along. I look at her, all dolled up in heels and a cute crop top, and then I look back at my bed, soft and warm, offering a Saturday night of TV, calls with high-school friends, and microwavable macaroni and cheese. Do I push myself to meet new people (and risk spending the next four hours smiling and saying “hey, where are you from?” so many times that my face starts to hurt), or do I fall back on the familiar?我大一那年总是反复出现这样一个场景。一个朋友敲响了我的房门。她告诉我她今晚的计划——可能要去一个朋友的房间参加一个女生联谊会或者一个赛前准备活动——问我要不要加入。我看着她,穿着高跟鞋,装扮可爱,然后目光又定格在自己的床上,温暖舒适,似乎过一个周六电视夜,叫上高中时的朋友,再准备一些微波通心粉和奶酪才是我想要的。我是应该让自己去认识一些新的人(并且冒着花费接下来的四个小时不停地微笑、寒暄“嗨,你家是哪的?”直到面部僵硬为止的风险),还是继续过我熟悉的那种生活?One Princeton junior told me that, during her first three months in college, she stayed in her room every Friday and Saturday night. She didn’t go out because her high-school boyfriend didn’t want her to. The first time she drank alcohol, he “fell apart.” When she signed up to join a sorority, he started a screaming match. She knew she was missing out on important college experiences, but there was still something that made her stay with him for the first few months.一个普林斯顿的大三生告诉我,在大学的前三个月里,她每个周五周六都呆在自己的房间。她不出去是因为她高中的男朋友不希望她出去。她第一次喝酒,他“崩溃”了。她报名参加一个女生联谊会,他开始大呼小叫。她知道她错过了很多重要的大学经历,但是在这几个月里总有些什么让她觉得不能和他分手。“First semester of freshman year, you don’t have that many real friends, so when my high-school boyfriend would show up, I would be like, ‘Yes, here is someone I trust, that I can actually tell things to,’” another junior said. “He was someone who would just instantly understand what was happening with me emotionally. I would want to just hole up in my room for the rest of the weekend, talking to him.”“大一的上学期,没有什么真心朋友,所以当我高中的男朋友出现时,我就会觉得‘对,他就是我信任的人,我可以倾诉的人’”,另一个大三生说道。“他就是会立刻懂得我在想什么的人。我愿意整个周末都把自己关在房间里,跟他聊天。”So when does this affinity for the familiar start to change? In the first few months of college, there are those long, lonely freshman nights – times when you wonder whether you’ve actually made any real friends. By November, however, most freshmen have gotten over the worst of their homesickness. The “Turkey Drop” happens in part because freshmen realize they no longer need the safety blanket of their high school significant other.那么这种亲密的关系是从什么时候开始改变的呢?在大学里的前几个月,总会有一些漫长又孤寂的新生夜——那些夜晚你会不住地想自己是否有真正的朋友。然而到了十一月,大多数新生都从想家最折磨的阶段恢复了出来。“火鸡”现象的发生部分是因为新生们意识到他们已经不再需要高中那个至关重要的另一半带来的安全感。According to Dr. Christopher Thurber, a psychologist at Phillips Exeter Academy, going home for Thanksgiving – being surrounded by people they love – can actually help freshmen to get over their homesickness. “When you’re homesick, your actions – being tearful, staying in your room a lot – will cue in the people around you, and prompt an appropriate social response,” said Thurber. “People will reach out to you, and that often will boost the student’s confidence. This in turn will help them overcome feelings of homesickness.”Christopher Thurber士,一个菲利普斯埃克塞特学院的心理学家表示,回家过感恩节——周围都是自己爱的人——会让新生们的恋家情绪不治而愈。“在你想家的时候,你的行为——眼泪汪汪,经常闷在自己的房间——会给你周围的人发出一个信号,带来一个适当的社会反应,”Thurber说道。“人们会去接近你,这也会提高学生的自信。反过来,这也会帮助他们克恋家情绪。”When I came home for Thanksgiving my freshman year, I was also shocked by how much I’d changed. I went to a high school where the majority of students had been living in the same town since kindergarten. Most people had similar views on political issues and didn’t have experience with cultures different from our own. Then I moved into my freshman dorm, and met a roommate who had just flown in from South Korea. At Thanksgiving, it felt strange to reunite with my group of high school girlfriends, who all grew up within a 20-mile radius.在我大一那年回家过感恩节的时候,我完全被自己的改变震惊了。我就读的高中大多数学生都从幼儿园起就住在一个镇上。大多数人对于政治问题都保持着相似的见解,也没经历过和我们小镇不同的文化氛围。之后我搬进了新生寝室,室友刚刚从韩国来。感恩节的时候,再和我高中的朋友们重聚显得些许怪异,她们都在二十英里以外的地方长大了。;A freshman will think, ‘When I was with this girl in high school, I thought we were going to be together forever. Then I got to college and saw that there was so much going on – different people and places and things.’ The committed match that you had in your mind might not look the same when you go home for Thanksgiving,” said Thurber.“新生可能会觉得‘高中时我们俩在一起的时候,我以为我们一辈子都会在一起。之后我上了大学,发现未来的路还很长——不同的人,不同的地方和不同的事。’你脑海中曾经坚定的想法可能在你回家过感恩节的时候又不一样了,”Thurber说道。Almost everyone I interviewed said there was no way to casually be in a long-distance relationship in college. If you were weren#39;t together everyday on campus, then you had to make sacrifices, and you didn#39;t make sacrifices if things weren#39;t serious. One junior told me that, freshman year, her high-school boyfriend revealed his plans to propose the day after graduation. She broke up with him a few weeks later.几乎所有受访者都表示在大学里维持长距离的关系可能性不大。如果你们不能在大学里每天在一起,就必须得做出一些牺牲,而如果不够认真你就不会做出牺牲。一个大三生称,大一时,她高中时的男朋友透露说毕业的第二天就会向她求婚,而几周后,她就提出分手了。;The nice thing about the college atmosphere in terms of relationships is that you can ease in to them – you don’t have to know where you stand, you don’t have to be really certain,” said a current college junior. “But with long distance, there’s the implication that you’re in it for the long haul. Having a long-distance relationship in college doesn’t just mean long distance. It means long distance, long term.”“对于关系,大学氛围最好的一件事就是你可以轻松地享受这段关系——你不需要知道你在哪,也不需要十分确定,”一个现在就读大学三年级的人说道。“但是长距离的关系就意味着你要长期维持。大学里的异地恋不仅仅意味着距离远,也是在说双方的感情要维持很久。”By late November, you realize that the long-distance, marriage-proposal kind of commitment is fundamentally opposed to the ideals we’re taught to associate with college. A lot of women told me they felt guilty about having a high-school boyfriend because it just wasn’t what you were “supposed” to do as a freshman. When I asked them exactly what they were supposed to be doing instead, no one had a concrete answer. A few vaguely mentioned drinking more heavily, or being free to consent to a dance floor make-out, but there was clearly something else.到十一月下旬,你就会意识到长距离,以婚姻为目标的承诺和我们与大学联系在一起的想法是完全相悖的。很多女性都告诉我有一个高中男朋友让她们感到很内疚,因为这并不是一个大学新生应做的事。我反问她们那个时候到底应该做些什么时,没人给我一个具体的答复。有几个人含糊地回答说应该多喝些酒,作为“自由人”去赴舞池约会,但当然不止这些。From movies like Animal House, Van Wilder, and 21 and Over, we get this idea that college is the only time in our lives when we can do stupid, drunken things and not get in too much trouble. The bridge of Asher Roth’s legendary rap anthem, “I Love College,” offers freshmen just one piece of advice: “Do something crazy!” In college, you’re supposed to make mistakes because those mistakes become cool stories – the kind that build character and street cred. But it’s hard to feel free to make bad decisions when you’ve got someone from home sending you a constant stream of text messages on Saturday night.从《动物爱回家》,《留级之王》,《21玩过界》等电影中,大学是我们生命中唯一一段可以做愚蠢的事却惹不上大麻烦的时光。罗斯(Asher Roth)的传奇饶舌颂歌的桥梁,“我爱大学,”给大学新生们提出了一条意见:“做点儿疯狂的事!”在大学里,你应该犯错,因为这些错误日后都会变成很酷的故事——能塑造性格和名声的那种。但是如果家那边有个人总在周六的晚上给你发一条又一条的信息,你可没办法去自由地做这些事。There’s more to this cultural idea of college than wild parties. Leaving home, we’re told that the next four years will be a time to experiment and figure out what we want to contribute to the world. Most juniors and seniors I know chose to major in a department different from the one they listed on their college application. That’s because we’ve all taken risks, learning about topics we didn’t expect to love. The whole process is trial and error: Try a lot of different things, and see what works. The biggest pressure for freshmen to “turkey drop” comes from knowing that we may never again be this free to explore.而大学的文化层面甚至比聚会狂欢还包含更多。一离开家,我们被告知接下来的四年试验并搞清楚我们想为世界贡献些什么的时间。我认识的大多数大三生和大四生都选择了和他们大学申报表上填写的不同专业,这是因为我们都冒了险,学习一些我们没预料到会喜欢的内容。整个过程就是反复试验:尝试很多不同的东西,看哪个好用。大学新生“火鸡放弃”最大的压力就是明白我们可能再也没法这样自由地去探索了。 /201312/267168 济南齐鲁医院有微创手术吗济南打孩子多少钱

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