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2019年06月25日 03:34:19

On my first day as head of presidential personnel for Barack Obama, I woke to the surprising headline that Senator Tom Daschle of South Dakota had withdrawn his nomination to be health secretary.在我担任巴拉奥巴Barack Obama)总统的人事负责人的第一天,我注意到一条令人意外的头条消息:南达科他州参议员汤达施Tom Daschle)退出了卫生部部长的提名。What seemed like a relatively small tax issue was attracting too much media and he decided to bow out. 看上去相对较小的税务问题却引起了媒体的太多关注,因此他决定退出。Each day thereafter was filled with additional shocks and a schedule of back-to-back interviews, 400,000 CVs to review and background checks 后来的每一天都充满更多的震惊和一个接一个的面试,需要评0万份简历,并展开背景调查。all amid constant media predictions, which usually had no connection to reality.同时媒体一直在预测,而这些预测通常都与现实毫无关系。For a new US administration to begin work straight after inauguration day, a daunting number of decisions have to be made within the weeks following the election. 新一届美国政府要在总统就职后马上开展工作的话,必须在选举后的几周之内做出数量惊人的决定。This is particularly true in 2016, where policy differences with the outgoing administration are stark. 2016年尤其如此,因为新政府与即将卸任的政府之间的政策分歧明显。Had Hillary Clinton won, it would have been a friendly process, with less pressure to replace people or policy. 如果是希拉里.克林Hillary Clinton)获胜,这会是一个友好的过程,替换人员或政策的压力较小。Yet even the most professionally managed transitions are chaotic. 然而,即便是管理最专业的过渡也会是混乱的。If Donald Trump hopes to avoid disruption to the work of government, he needs to organise quickly, starting with personnel.如果唐纳特朗Donald Trump)希望避免他的政府工作中断,他需要迅速组织,从人事开始。More than 4,000 White House and executive branch positions need to be filled, including more than 1,000 that require Senate confirmation. 有超000个白宫和行政部门职位需要填补,其中1000多个需要参议院确认。Picking the appointee is merely the first stage and triggers Federal Bureau of Investigation security clearance, political vetting and a review by the Office of Government Ethics to avoid financial conflicts. 物色人选只是第一步,接下来是联邦调查局(FBI)的安全检查、政治审查和政府道德办公Office of Government Ethics)为避免财务利益冲突所做的评估。For some individuals, it comes as a surprise that they must lay bare all of the activities from their adult lives and unwind financial holdings to remove conflicts. 一些个人会吃惊地发现,他们必须报告他们成年后的所有活动,并卖掉金融资产,以消除利益冲突。This takes weeks, where seemingly minor queries cripple the wider appointments process.这需要数周时间,在这个过程中,看似微不足道的调查会拖慢整个任命程序。President-elect Trump’s transition team has to take some key decisions right now. 当选总统特朗普的过渡团队需要马上做出一些重要决定。First, they must be clear with nominees about their redlines on lobbying, representing foreign governments, employing illegal immigrants, infidelity or whether they have used marijuana (even in a state where it is legal). 首先,他们必须让被提名者清楚他们在游说、代表外国政府、聘用非法移民、不忠或者他们是否吸食大麻(即使是在吸大麻合法的州)等方面的红线。They will also need to consider the different standards of Senate committees; the banking committee has higher standards on tax issues for example. 他们还需要考虑各参议院委员会的不同标准;例如,业委员会在税务问题上的标准较高。Being upfront will avoid future embarrassment, as the FBI uncovers everything.开诚布公将避免未来的尴尬,因为联邦调查局会揭露一切。Second, the transition team needs to decide the importance of diversity in its administration. 第二,过渡团队需要确定新政府多样性的重要性。Once one position is decided, it will dictate the make-up of other appointments. 一旦确定某个职务,它将影响其他任命。And third, they will need to decide the balance of power in picking appointees in the cabinet agencies: does the cabinet secretary or White House make the final call?第三,他们需要决定内阁部门人员遴选中的权力平衡:做出最终决定的是内阁秘书长还是白宫?Concerns have been expressed that the Trump transition is behind schedule and is struggling to get organised.有人担心,特朗普政府的过渡工作已落后,而且忙乱没有条理。During the Obama transition, by this stage we had detailed policy plans and agency review teams in place, as well as lists of pre-vetted appointees for the positions requiring Senate confirmation y on election day. 在奥巴马政府过渡期间,到现在这个阶段,我们已经有了详细政策计划和部门评估团队,经过预审的需要参议院确认的岗位人选名单在选举日就准备好了。We still entered a world of organised chaos. 即便这样我们还是进入了一个有序混乱的世界。Our best-laid plans did not survive very long.我们设计最完美的计划也没有坚持很长时间。Given the apparent lack of planning, Mr Trump’s transition will encounter an exacerbated version of these challenges. 鉴于明显缺乏计划,特朗普的过渡团队将遭遇更严峻的挑战。The appointments and confirmation process may be messier, particularly at levels below the cabinet where it seems even fewer preparations have been made. 任命和确认程序可能会更加混乱,尤其是内阁以下职务,特朗普在这方面的准备似乎做得更少。This will have a knock-on effect: without these appointees in place, the administration will not be able to implement its policy and budget priorities.这将产生连锁效应:如果这些被提名人选没有到位,特朗普政府将无法实施其政策和预算优先任务。Perhaps in the coming weeks, we will see a more organised personnel process from Mr Trump. 或许未来几周,我们将看到特朗普制定出一个更有条理的人事任命程序。Failure to do so will mean a less capable leadership and further confusion in Washington. 否则这将意味着领导能力不足,美国政府将更加混乱。Suspicion will increase in foreign capitals too about Mr Trump’s ability to lead the US.外国政府也将更加质疑特朗普领导美国的能力。来 /201612/481654山东中医药大学附属医院联系电话Inflation in Venezuela is expected to reach 720 percent this year, with the largest bolívar bill now worth just five US cents on the black market.委内瑞拉的通货膨胀今年预计将达20%,在黑市上,最大面值的玻利瓦尔币现在仅美分。Some shopkeepers have reportedly taken to weighing rather than counting the wads of cash customers hand them, and standard-size wallets have become all but useless in the socialist South American state. 据报道,如今正常尺寸的钱包在这个南美社会主义国家已经彻底派不上用场了,顾客付款时店主不会点钞,而是给大把大把的现金称重。Instead, many people stuff huge volumes of cash into handbags, money belts, or backpacks, in scenes analysts have said are suggestive of ;runaway; inflation.许多人将大量钞票塞满手袋、腰包或背包。分析人士指出,这种情形是通货膨胀失控的征兆。In 2014, plummeting global oil prices decimated Venezuelas economy. 2014年,全球石油价格暴跌使委内瑞拉经济遭受重创。President Nicolás Maduro responded by fixing the official exchange rate and ordering banks to print more cash, which ultimately devalued the currency further, while goods prices soared.该国总统尼古拉斯.马杜罗为此固定官方汇率,命令印制更多钞票,而这些应对措施最终导致货币进一步贬值,商品价格飙升。The country of 30 million does not publish consumer-price data on a regular basis, but observers have said scenes on the streets of the capital, Caracas, are reminiscent of the past centurys most chaotic cases of hyperinflation.拥有3000万人口的委内瑞拉并未定期公布消费者价格指数,但是目击者称,该国首都加拉斯加街头的场景让人联想到上世纪最混乱的恶性通胀危机。Humberto Gonzalez, who runs a delicatessen in the city, said he uses the same scales to weigh slices of salty white cheese and the stacks of bolívar notes handed over by his customers.温贝冈萨雷斯在加拉斯加经营一家熟食店,他说自己用称咸味儿白奶酪的称去计算顾客给他的成堆的玻利瓦尔币;It’s sad,; Mr Gonzalez told Bloomberg. ;At this point, I think the cheese is worth more.;可悲的是,我认为奶酪更值钱冈萨雷斯对彭社表示。Jesus Casique, a consulting firm director, told the news site that although weighing cash was not ubiquitious, it was indicative of a financial crisis.杰西.克拉斯科是一家咨询公司的主管,他对彭社表示,虽然给现金称重的景象并非随处可见,但这也是金融危机的预兆;When they start weighing cash, it’s a sign of runaway inflation,; he said. 他说,人们开始给现金称重,就是通货膨胀失控的标志,;But Venezuelans don’t know just how bad it is because the government refuses to publish figures.;但委内瑞拉人不知道情况有多糟,因为政府拒绝公布通胀数据。Oil makes up a staggering 95 percent of Venezuelas exports, and accounts for a quarter of the countrys economy, with oil-related revenues having historically supplied roughly half the government budget. 石油出口在委内瑞拉的出口总额中占比高5%,占该国经济总额/4。数据显示,委内瑞拉约一半的财政预算来源于与石油有关的税收。This kind of over-reliance on a single export notoriously depresses all other industries in a country, in a phenomenon known by economists as ;Dutch Disease;.众所周知,这种过分依赖单一产品出口的经济模式会遏制该国其他行业的发展,经济学家将这种现象称为荷兰病。When the price of oil on the global market collapsed by two-thirds in 2014, Venezuela had little else to fall back on, so a natural reaction would have been for the bolívar to collapse. 2014年,全球市场石油价格暴跌2/3,这让委内瑞拉的经济失去了依靠,玻利瓦尔币自然会因此贬值。But Mr Maduro, who succeeded Hugo Chávez following the revolutionary leaders death in 2013, instead tried to control the exchange rate, creating a massive black market for currency.但革命领袖雨查维013年去世后,接任总统的马杜罗没有采取控制货币汇率的措施,反而成就了一个巨大的货币黑市。Figuring out scams to get dollars and then sell them for bolívars became hugely lucrative business for Venezuelans, setting off a feedback loop that drove the inflation rate higher and higher.对于委内瑞拉人来说,设局套取美金,然后将其兑换成玻利瓦尔币成了非常有利可图的生意。这个恶性循环让通货膨胀率越来越高。In one of Caracas richer neighbourhoods, the owner of a tiny kiosk selling newspapers, cigarettes and snacks told the Washington Post that every evening he quietly stuffs a plastic bag full of the day’s earnings, around 100,000 bolívars (about 2) in notes of 10, 20, 50 and 100 bolívars. 在首都加拉加斯一处富人区有一家贩卖报纸、香烟和零食的报亭,报亭老板告诉《华盛顿邮报》,每晚他都要把一天的收入悄悄塞进一个塑料袋,每天收入约0万玻利瓦尔币(约42英镑),货币面值为100000玻利瓦尔。Venezuela has one of the highest crime rates in the world, and he said carrying that much cash frightens him.今年42岁的报亭老板表示,委内瑞拉是全球犯罪率最高的国家之一,带着这么多现金让他很害怕;All of Caracas is unsafe,; the 42-year-old told the newspaper, opting not to give his name.这位不愿透露姓名的男子告诉记者,整个加拉加斯都不安全。His best-selling item is cigarettes, he said, which have climbed in price from 250 bolívars to 2,000 bolívars a pack at least 20 bills.他说,销量最好的是香烟,其售价已经从250玻利瓦尔币涨000玻利瓦尔币一包——这至少要二十张钞票。The shrinking value of the currency has meant that withdrawing the equivalent of from an ATM produces a fistful of more than 100 bills. 货币缩水意味着从自动取款机取出100多张钞票才相当于5英镑。Some ATMs now need to be refilled every three hours, because the machines can only hold so much cash. 由于自动取款机装不下太多现金,有些机器现在每3小时就要续款。This means there are often a limited number of functioning ATMs in Caracas, and long queues to withdraw money.这意味着加拉加斯经常只有少数自动取款机正常工作,而为了取钱人们总是排着长队;Electronic payment is increasingly common in the country,; Henkel Garcia, director of the Venezuelan economic think tank Econométrica, told the Washington Post. 委内瑞拉经济智库Econométrica的负责人汉高.加西亚对《华盛顿邮报》表示,;The use of online payments is likely to have soared,; he said.电子付在委内瑞拉越来越普遍,在线付的使用量很可能飙升。But it is expensive for small businesses to buy and set up credit-card machines.但是对于小企业来说,购买和安装信用卡机器的开销太大。Mr Maduro, who has largely continued the socialist policies of his predecessor, blamed the situation on an ;economic war; waged by his opponents in the business community and in the ed States. 马杜罗在很大程度上延续了其前任的社会主义政策,他将如今的状况归咎于美国和其商界对手发动的经济战。But, in a sign his government recognises the severity of the problem, 但他近日宣布预计于明月发行更大面额的货币。he recently announced the issue of larger-denomination bills, expected in January.这一迹象表明马杜罗政府已经认识到问题的严重性。The notes are reportedly set to start at 500 bolivars and reach 20,000 bolivars.据报道,新货币的面值在5000000玻利瓦尔币之间。Until the notes are issued, however, the Venezuelan people are poorer than ever, while the country is awash with cash.等到货币发行后,委内瑞拉便拥有足够现金,但该国人民只会更加贫穷。Bremmer Rodrigues, who runs a bakery on the outskirts of Caracas, said his family are at a loss over what to do with their bags of bills. 布雷罗德里格斯在加拉加斯郊区经营着一家面包店,他表示,成包的钞票让他们一家感到无所适从。Every day his business takes in hundreds of thousands of bolívar, he said, which he hides around his office until packing them up in boxes to deposit at the bank. 罗德里格斯每天的生意收入有数十万玻利瓦尔币,他先把这些钱藏在办公室附近,之后再打包装箱存入。He said if someone looked in on him, he might be mistaken for a drug dealer.罗德里格斯说,如果有人看见他,可能会误以为他是毒品贩子;I feel like Pablo Escobar,; the 25-year-old told Bloomberg. 他告诉彭社,我感觉自己就像巴勃埃斯科巴(注:哥伦比亚毒枭);It’s a mountain of cash, every day more and more.;钱堆得跟山一样,每天越来越多。来 /201611/480840济南市紫荆花妇科医院收费好不好济南哪个妇科医院好点


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