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2019年09月19日 22:42:24 | 作者:豆瓣社区 | 来源:新华社

Whatever you think of the UK prime minister, Theresa May has a very rough road ahead. If Hillary Clinton becomes US president, she will join Mrs May at the top of the glassiest of “glass cliffs”.无论你对英国新首相持何看法,特里萨#8226;梅(Theresa May)的未来之路将非常坎坷。如果希拉里#8226;克林顿(Hillary Clinton)当选美国总统的话,她将与梅一道站在最危险的“玻璃悬崖”上。The phrase describes the tendency for women to be preferred over men for precarious jobs. Among chief executives, lawyers, prospective members of parliament, even secondary school student representatives, studies show women are often assigned the intractable tasks, the risky cases and, according to analysis of UK elections, the harder-to-win constituencies.“玻璃悬崖”描述了一种倾向性,即女性比男性更易于被推上危险职位。对首席执行官、律师、准议会成员、甚至中学学生代表等群体的研究显示出,女性常常被分派棘手的任务、高风险的案件以及(对英国大选的分析显示出)较难赢下的选区。Hurrah for that, you may say: it should be cause for celebration that women don’t shy from such roles. I suppose it is a perverse sign of progress that, after centuries of men serving as dud presidents, failed youth leaders and losing barristers, women should get their shot. But the reasons women seem to get these tricky roles are a depressing sign of the sluggishness of advances towards gender parity. Worse, the consequences if these women fail could set back future generations of aspiring female leaders.这太棒了,你或许会说:这应该值得庆祝,因为女性没有回避这些角色。我认为,这是一种不正常的进步迹象,表明在男性充当无用的总统、失败的青年领袖及失意的大律师等角色几个世纪后,应该轮到女性大显身手了。但是,女性看似得到了这些棘手的职位,其背后的原因却是性别平等进展缓慢的令人沮丧的信号。更糟糕的是,如果这些女性失败的话,结果可能打击到未来几代有抱负的女性领导者。Professors Michelle Ryan and Alex Haslam of the University of Exeter did the first detailed research into the idea, and adopted the term “glass cliff”, after a lazy article in The Times in 2003 implied that appointing women to boards “wreaked havoc on companies’ performance”.英国埃克塞特大学(University of Exeter)教授米歇尔#8226;瑞恩(Michelle Ryan)与亚历克斯#8226;哈斯拉姆(Alex Haslam)率先对这一现象进行了详细研究,并引入了“玻璃悬崖”一词。此前,《泰晤士报》(The Times)2003年刊发的一篇蹩脚文章暗示称,任命女性进入董事会“对公司业绩造成了严重破坏”。The Times article was a correlation-does-not-equal-causation classic. Not only did women board members not trigger share price collapse, their appointment tended to follow periods of underperformance, whereas men were winning board seats at companies with more stable stocks.这篇文章是一个“相关不等于因果”的典型范例。女性董事会成员不仅没有引起股价暴跌,她们的任命还往往是在企业股价表现不佳之后,而男性通常会在股价更稳定的公司获得董事会席位。At about the same time, I interviewed Jack Welch, a self-confessed “neanderthal” on gender balance, who mused that he was worried that three prominent female chief executives — Carly Fiorina, then at Hewlett-Packard, Pat Russoof Lucent (later Alcatel-Lucent) and Anne Mulcahy of Xerox — had been handed impossible tasks. If they failed, he said, it would set back efforts to develop more women for such roles.大约在同一时期,我采访了在性别平等方面自称持古老看法的杰克#8226;韦尔奇(Jack Welch)。他沉思道,自己担心三位杰出的女性首席执行官——当时执掌惠普(Hewlett-Packard)的卡莉#8226;菲奥莉娜(Carly Fiorina)、朗讯(Lucent,后来的阿尔卡特-朗讯(Alcatel-Lucent))的陆思(Pat Russo),以及施乐(Xerox)的安妮#8226;马尔卡希(Anne Mulcahy)——被交予了不可能完成的任务。他说,如果她们失败了,将挫伤让更多女性担当此类角色的努力。Ms Fiorina and Ms Russo’s fortunes did slide — and men took over from them. Ms Mulcahy led a turnround of Xerox and passed the baton to company insider Ursula Burns.菲奥莉娜、陆思的命运确实不济——男性接替了她们的职位。马尔卡希领导施乐实现了扭亏,并将指挥棒交给了公司内部的乌苏拉尔#8226;伯恩斯(Ursula Burns)。Such “sample of one” anecdotes vex the academics. But the point stands. Some women won’t even approach the edge of the cliff if they see their role models slipping over it. The phenomenon could lead to stagnation in women’s progress.此类“个例”令学者苦恼。但道理还是成立。如果看到自己的偶像从悬崖跌落,有些女性甚至将不愿再向悬崖边缘靠近。这种现象可能导致女性进步的停滞。Pointing to the cliff can be risky, too, if it reinforces female and male stereotypes. Female leaders are sometimes extolled for stepping up to the brink, as in the occasional suggestion following the UK’s EU referendum that it would take a woman to “clean up the mess the boys made”. When women succeed in such perilous roles, they sometimes get put on a glass pedestal which may be equally precarious — like the one occupied by the Icelandic financiers and politicians who filled the gaps at the top after its financial crisis.指出玻璃悬崖的存在也有风险——如果这样做加深了有关男性与女性的刻板印象的话。女性领导者有时会因站上悬崖而大受赞扬,正如英国公投退欧后不时出现的暗示,即需要一位女性来“收拾男人们留下的烂摊子”。当女性在这些危险角色中获得成功时,她们有时会被送上一个可能同样危险的玻璃高台——就像冰岛金融危机后填补高层空缺的冰岛金融家和政客一样。There are, however, important reasons why everyone needs to chip away at the glass cliff.然而,人人都有责任敲掉玻璃悬崖,其中的原因很重要。When Prof Ryan describes this phenomenon to audiences of women and girls, she says they are often “deflated”. Raising the issue, however, at least forces selection committees to address their unconscious bias.当瑞恩教授向成年和青少年女性听众描述这一现象时,她说,她们常常“会泄气”。然而,提出这一问题至少可以迫使负责选拔人才的委员会克他们无意识的偏见。Understanding the phenomenon helps expose old-fashioned ways of thinking in business and politics. Prof Ryan’s later research found women were sometimes being set up for a fall, while sometimes women get the job because of “men not wanting to fail and taking a step back”, which sounds familiar from the aftermath of the UK referendum.理解这一现象有助于揭露商业和政治领域陈旧的思维方式。瑞恩教授后来的研究发现,女性有时成为应对失败的“替罪羊”,而有时获得任命是因为“男人不想失败而后退一步”——听起来与英国公投退欧后的情况类似。At a time of crisis, organisations have a licence to appoint leaders who look different, not necessarily because they will bring change, but because the decision to appoint them merely signals change. Separate research found, for instance, that Japanese companies in difficulty appointed (male) foreigners as chief executive.危机时期,组织倾向于任命看起来不一样的领导者,未必是因为他们会带来改变,而是因为任命他们的决定本身就预示着改变。例如,另一项研究发现,处于困境中的日本企业会任命(男性)外国人士为首席执行官。As long as men hold most senior positions, women will be set up as fall-girls. Given their chance of a cushier job is more limited, they may feel obliged to accept cliff-edge roles.只要男性掌控着大多数高级职位,被推向高位的女性注定将跌落。考虑到她们得到较轻松职位的机会更为有限,她们也许会感到不得不接受处于悬崖边缘的角色。It would be odd not to want Mrs May to succeed. If she does not, though, she must be judged a failed prime minister, not a failed “female prime minister”. Only then will it be possible to fight another phenomenon: “the saviour effect”.不希望梅成功的想法将很奇怪。不过,如果她没有成功,必须以一位失败的首相评价她,而非一位失败的“女首相”。那时我们才有可能对抗另一现象:“救世主效应”。Women who lead struggling companies are much more likely to be replaced by a man, another recent study shows, as a sign that things have returned to normal. Such is the turmoil in UK and US politics, some stability would be welcome. But this is one norm that should be scrapped.另一项最新研究显示,领导处于困境中的公司的女性更有可能被男性接替——作为公司已回归常态的标志。这就是英美两国政治正在经历的动荡,一定程度的稳定将受到欢迎。但这种模式应被抛弃。 /201607/455929

A controversial Chinese metals entrepreneur plans to acquire Aleris, a privately held American rolled aluminium products producer, for .11bn in cash plus .22bn in net debt.一位引发争议的中国金属制品企业家计划以11.1亿美元现金外加约12.2亿美元净债务收购私有的美国铝压延产品生产商Aleris。The buyer Liu Zhongtian is the founder of China Zhongwang, a Hong Kong-listed, mainland based company that makes and exports aluminium products. 买家刘忠田是中国忠旺(China Zhongwang)创始人,中国忠旺是一家在香港上市的内地公司,主要制造和出口铝产品。Mr Liu has been controversial since Zhongwang’s 2009 Hong Kong IPO, most recently for allegations that the company was primarily responsible for flooding world markets with Chinese aluminium products, writes Lucy Hornby in Beijing.自2009年忠旺在香港首次公开发行(IPO)以来,关于刘忠田一直都存在争议,其最近受到的指控是,该公司要对中国铝制品潮水般涌入国际市场负首要责任。The Hong Kong listed firm was also accused last summer by a previously-unknown short seller of inflating sales.去年夏天,香港上市的中国忠旺还被一家此前不为人知的做空机构指责进行虚假销售。Mr Liu will acquire Aleris through his investment company, Zhongwang USA, his statement said. 刘忠田在一份声明中表示,他将通过旗下投资公司忠旺美国(Zhongwang USA)收购Aleris。Aleris was formed from several metals and recycling firms. Aleris当初由多家金属制品和回收公司组建而成。It declared 11 bankruptcy in 2009, brought down by the global financial crisis and heavy debt taken out by its private equity owners.在全球金融危机以及公司私人股本所有者负担的沉重债务的冲击下,Aleris在2009年宣布进入美国破产法第11章(11)的破产保护程序。 /201609/463880

It is not often that labour trumps capital. Opec ministers, together handling the taps for a third of the world’s oil supply, represent the capitalists. Traders had hoped that this group, meeting in Doha over the weekend, might begin to close the spigot. But no agreement to freeze production could be reached, let alone a decision to make cuts. Come Monday, oil fell, and stock markets followed suit. 劳方胜过资方的情况并不多见。石油输出国组织(Opec,简称欧佩克)成员国的石油部长们共同掌控着世界三分之一石油供给的龙头开关,他们代表资方。交易商们曾希望,上周末在多哈举行会议的欧佩克石油部长们或许会开始关闭龙头。然而,该会议没能达成任何冻结石油产量的协议,更不必说减产决定了。到了周一,油价下跌,股市也随之下跌。 More effective were the efforts of labour, in the shape of striking state oil workers in Kuwait, Opec’s number five producer. While Opec ministers failed to take a single barrel off the market, a dispute over public sector wages has led to a reported loss of half of Kuwait’s 3m barrels per day of production. Even if the strike does not last long, 1.5m barrels per day is a lot — close to the equivalent of the US Permian region’s shale oil output. 更有效的是劳方的努力,即欧佩克第5大产油国科威特的国有石油工人的罢工。欧佩克部长们一桶原油都未能从市场上拿掉,而据报道,公共部门薪资纠纷导致科威特每天300万桶的原油产量减半。就算这场罢工不会持续很久,每天150万桶原油也不是小数目——接近美国二叠纪盆地的页岩油日产量。 A knee-jerk reaction of equity prices to the outcome of the Doha meeting makes little sense. There is little evidence that oil prices and major stock indices, such as the Samp;P 500, move together. Share prices soared when oil trod water above 0 per barrel up to mid-2014, and then initially went higher after oil halved. 股价对多哈会议结果的本能反应没有什么道理。没有什么据表明油价和标普500(Samp;P 500)等主要股指步调一致。油价直至2014年年中一直徘徊在每桶100美元以上,其间股价飙升,而油价腰斩后,股价最初还进一步走高。 What does correlate with oil prices (negatively) are credit defaults, 46 so far this year, according to Standard amp; Poor’s. Compare that with about 70 in all of 2009, when oil had fallen far more in a year. Many of these stem from highly indebted US oil explorers, such as Energy XXI, which is now seeking bankruptcy protection. 真正(负)相关的是油价和信用违约数量。根据标准普尔的数据,今年迄今已出现46起信用违约。相比之下,油价全年跌幅大得多的2009年出现的信用违约大约为70起。这些违约许多都来自于债台高筑的美国石油出口商,比如目前正寻求破产保护的能源XXI(Energy XXI)。 Banks that have directly lent to the energy companies are also twitchy. Wells Fargo and Bank of America, big lenders to the US energy sector, both upped their energy loan loss provisions in the first quarter. Both have slashed their exposure over the past year; taking more pain should be easier as the sector bet shrinks. 直接为能源公司提供贷款的也焦虑不安。美国能源业的大债主富国(Wells Fargo)和美国(Bank of America)第一季度都上调了能源贷款损失准备金。两家过去一年都削减了它们的敞口;随着押在这个行业上的赌注缩小,承受更大的损失应该会更容易。 Capital will triumph in the end, though. Oil prices, even after this year’s rebound, are still too low for comfort. European explorers depend even more on bank loans than on markets for capital. UK groups like Premier Oil and Tullow Oil will have to work ever harder to keep their lenders happy as the year goes on. 然而,资方最终会胜出。即使是在今年的反弹之后,油价依然低得难以让市场满意。欧洲出口商在筹集资金方面依赖甚于市场。第一石油(Premier Oil)、塔洛石油(Tullow Oil)等英国石油公司在今年剩余时间里必须更加努力,才能让它们的债主安心。 /201604/438368

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