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时间:2017年10月21日 18:26:51

Public-information films公共信息电影广告Dont stop, dont look, dont listen莫停留,莫张望,莫听信Scary adverts dont work, yet they are everywhere骇人的广告如同鸡肋却无处不在CHATTERING schoolchildren don colourful anoraks; clutching hands, they depart for a woodland picnic. Elsewhere a young man leaps into his car and speeds off to work. Moments later he careers off the road and his spinning car kills each one of the cheery youngsters. The camera lingers on their dead hands and the now-empty classroom. A grim voice explains that they represent the children killed as a result of speeding in Northern Ireland since 2000.冻得瑟瑟发抖的孩子们穿着鲜艳的厚夹克,手拉手去森林野餐。在另一处一个年轻人跳上车加速行驶赶去工作。片刻之后道路上猛冲的车子失去控制撞向了那一群孩童,孩子们在这场车祸中无一幸免。镜头停留在他们毫无生命力的小手上以及如今空荡荡的教室里。一个恐怖的声音解释道,他们呈现的是自2000年起北爱尔兰因超速受害的儿童。British road-safety adverts are more shocking than those broadcast in America, says Anne McCartt of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, an independent research group there. The British penchant for horror might reflect the nations long tradition of public-service broadcasting, which seeks to entertain and inform at once. But do the ads work?英国道路安全广告比在美国道路安全广告效果要震撼的多,当地一家独立研究机构——公路安全保险学会的安妮·麦克卡特如是说。倾向于使用恐怖元素的英国广告或许反映了国家公共务广播的悠久传统,即能立刻起到兼信息发布的作用。但这真的有用吗?Though gory, shocking public-information films linger in peoples heads, they seem not to alter behaviour much. If the consequences seem too extreme, the threat may seem too far-fetched, says Josh Bullmore, who has both made and studied such adverts. Few may believe that disaster could befall them or adjust their behaviour accordingly. Tessa Langley of the University of Nottingham has compared the impact of smoking campaigns that showed tumours erupting disgustingly out of cigarettes with more positive ones that also urged people to quit. The former proved more memorable, but the latter led more people to ring the national smoking helpline.尽管血淋淋的、震撼人心的公共信息电影广告停留在观众脑海里挥散不去,但人们似乎并没有从中受到多大教育。如果这些电影广告的结局太过极端,那么广告所起到的教育震慑作用就显得过于牵强附会了,乔希·布尔莫如是评价。他也曾参与制作和学习这类广告片。没几个人会相信灾难会降临到自己头上,他们也不会真的通过广告片来审视自己的行为。诺丁汉大学的泰萨·朗利将两种反吸烟运动的影响进行对比,一种是展示出因香烟造成的恶性肿瘤,另一种也是积极的却说人们戒烟。前者被实更加难忘,但后者则引导了更多人拿起电话拨打全国戒烟热线。The budget for public-information films is shrinking. The Central Office of Information, the governments marketing department, was closed in 2011. In 2008-09 the Department for Transport (DfT) spent almost £3m on its drink-drive advertising campaign. In 2013-14 spending fell to less than £1m. Unable to afford as many spots on television, the scaremongers hope their films will be shared on social media. And that is encouraging them to churn out the gory kind. In a recent advert from the DfT, men washing their hands in a pub toilet are startled by the face of a mannequin smashing bloodily through the mirror. The ad suggests a hashtag, publooshocker, for online sharing. Less shocking adverts might work better, but fewer people would see them.公共信息电影广告的预算正在缩水。中央信息办公室,即政府的市场营销部门,早在2011年就关闭了。在2008至年间交通部门(DfT)在它的反酒驾广告运动上花费了近300万英镑。而在2013至2014年间在此花费却不到100万英镑。这种广告的制作商由于无法负担过多电视频道的费用,从而希望他们的电影广告可以通过社会媒体传播。并且那也促使他们大量炮制这种骇人的广告。DfT最近的一部广告中,人们在一个酒吧的洗手间洗手时被打碎镜子、满脸是血的人体模型的脸吓到。这个广告在线上分享时带有一个标签酒吧洗手间惊魂。少一些血腥元素的广告或许更有用,但那就没什么人会去看了。译者:邵夏沁 校对:周晓婷 译文属译生译世 /201501/354571

This weekend I had a chance to see President Obamas speech to the graduating class at Howard, the nations best known historic black university. He talked to them about voting and voting rights—but not quite the way you might think.It was a highly impressive speech.It seems to me that in recent weeks Obama seems to have gotten his groove back as an orator. He seems looser, much more like the hope-inspiring leader of 2008 than the careworn president.Possibly this is because he knows he will be a private citizen again in less than nine months.He praised a young woman named Ciearra Jefferson, the daughter of a single mom who works in an auto plant. Ciearra, the president said, intends to come back to Detroit to help her community have access to the health care they need.That was a legitimate feel-good story. But I found the presidents remarks on voting especially compelling.Suddenly, after talking about the need for change, he changed tone with the new graduates.;Your plan better include voting—not some of the time, but all the time,; he said.He admitted there is still discrimination, and said that half a century after the Voting Rights Act, ;there are still too many barriers in this country to [voting], and ;there are still too many people trying to erect new barriers.;Still, he gently reminded them that what they had to face was nothing compared to their ancestors, who risked their lives to vote.He told them when the nations first black president was running for reelection four years ago, ;nearly two in three African-Americans turned out.In 2014, only two in five turned out.You dont think that made a difference in terms of the Congress Ive got to deal with?;Finally he said, ;you know what? Just vote. If you have more votes than the other guy, you get to do what you want. Its not that complicated.;The students laughed, and the President had a point. But maybe it is a little more complicated. The day before he spoke at Howard, I had lunch with a freshman state representative from Detroit named Leslie Love.Shes a woman in her mid-forties, with a background in both theater and human resources. She told me she had turned to politics because she wanted to make a difference for her community.At one point we started talking about voting, and why so many African-Americans dont. Representative Love is perhaps a bit closer to the street than the president. She told me that for people with limited education, the ballot can be terrifying.;For example, it might say, ;vote for not more than two,; candidates and they wont be sure exactly what that means. Does it mean you have to vote for two?She told me many black folks are too proud to ask for help, and so they dont vote at all.Add the fact that theres no early voting in Michigan, too few polling places in inner city areas, false rumors about the police waiting at the polls to serve warrants, and poor turnout becomes much easier to understand.The President was right: Everyone needs to vote, and it is easier for some than it once was. But for too many, not easy enough.Jack Lessenberry is Michigan Radios political analyst. Views expressed in his essays are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Michigan Radio, its management or the station licensee, The University of Michigan.201605/442844

Social change社会的改变The weaker sex弱男子Blue-collar men in rich countries are in trouble. They must learn to adapt在发达国家的蓝领男性群体正处于困境中,他们必须学会适应。AT FIRST glance the patriarchy appears to be thriving. More than 90% of presidents and prime ministers are male, as are nearly all big corporate bosses. Men dominate finance, technology, films, sports, music and even stand-up comedy. In much of the world they still enjoysocial and legal privileges simply because they have a Y chromosome. So it might seem odd to worry about the plight of men.父系社会现在咋一看似乎正兴盛。超过90%的国家总统总理,和几乎所有大型公司的大boss都是男性。男性统治着经济,科技,企业,体育,音乐,甚至连说相声的都基本是男的。在大多数国家里男人仅仅因为拥有一条Y染色体便享有在社会和法律上的特权,这样看来,担心男性的“悲催命运”般的困境似乎是在杞人忧天。Yet there is plenty of cause for concern. Men cluster at the bottom as well as the top. They are far more likely than women to be jailed, estranged from their children, or to kill themselves. They earn fewer university degrees than women. Boys in the developed world are 50% more likely to flunk basic maths, ing and science entirely.但有却又大量的原由让人不得不担心。男性群体从渣男到精英男,他们在被关进监狱啊,被他们的孩子疏远嫌弃啊,或者自杀率啊都远远大于女性,却在取得更多的大学学位上败给了女性。在发达国家中,有50%左右的男孩会在基础数学,阅读和科学学科上挂掉。One group in particular is suffering. Poorly educated men in rich countries have had difficulty coping with the enormous changes in the labour market and the home over the past half-century. As technology and trade have devalued brawn, less-educated men have struggled to find a role in the workplace. Women, on the other hand, are surging into expanding sectors such as health care and education, helped by their superior skills. As education has become more important, boys have also fallen behind girls in school (except at the very top). Men who lose jobs in manufacturing often never work again. And men without work find it hard to attract a permanent mate. The result, for low-skilled men, is a poisonous combination of no job, no family and no prospects.在男性群体中又有一类人尤其遭罪。在过去的半个世纪里,发达国家里的受教育程度低的男性已经非常难应对发生了巨变的劳工市场和家庭。现代技术革新和贸易已经使原先的靠劳力形式的肌肉男的价值直线下降,缺少教育的男性,不得不在职场中苦苦挣扎,才能得一席之地。相反的,女性却依靠着自身出众的技能,在像医疗卫生和教育这样的领域里大放异。教育已经变成更重要的事情,而男孩却学校里被女孩甩在了身后(尖端领域学科除外)。从工厂失业的男性常从此不再去工作。而没有工作的男性会发现去吸引永久的伴侣是件非常难的事。由此导致低技术的男性被无工作,无家庭,无前景的“三无”剧毒环环围住。From nuclear families to fissile ones从核心家庭到易碎家庭Those on the political left tend to focus on economics. Shrinking job opportunities for men, they say, are entrenching poverty and destroying families. In America pay for men with only a high-school certificate fell by 21% in real terms between 1979 and 2013; for women with similar qualifications it rose by 3%. Around a fifth of working-age American men with only a high-school diploma have no job.持左翼 的人倾向于专注于经济,他们认为减少男性工作的机会会加剧贫穷,并,并摧毁家庭。在美国,只有高中学历的男性的实际收入,从1979年到2013年减低了21%,而同等学历的女性,在此期间的实际收入却提高了3%。约有5分之一的只有高中学历的处在工作适龄的男性,处在失业中。Those on the right worry about the collapse of the family. The vast majority of women would prefer to have a partner who does his bit both financially and domestically. But they would rather do without one than team up with a layabout, which may be all that is on offer: American men without jobs spend only half as much time on housework and caring for others as do women in the same situation, and much more time watching television.持右翼的人担心着家庭的崩溃。绝大多数的女性倾向于和愿兼顾家里财政收入职能和家务劳动职能的男性成为两口子。她们宁愿单身也不愿随便和一个游手好闲的卢瑟勉强过一辈子,而这是有依据的:美国失业男性仅仅只付出同等条件下失业女性的一半的时间来做家务事和照顾彼此的生活,这些男人会花更多的时间来看电视。Hence the unravelling of working-class families. The two-parent family, still the norm among the elite, is vanishing among the poor. In rich countries the proportion of births outside marriage has trebled since 1980, to 33%. In some areas where traditional manufacturing has collapsed, it has reached 70% or more. Children raised in broken homes learn less at school, are more likely to drop out and earn less later on than children from intact ones. They are also not very good at forming stable families of their own.因此工人阶级的家庭变的更易解体。双亲家庭这种形式还是精英阶层的标配,而这种家庭形式却在穷人中正在消失。在发达国家,非婚生子占新生儿的比重比1980年高出了3倍,已经达到了33%。而在一些传统制造业崩坏的地区,这一比例达到70%甚至更高。生活在破碎家庭里的孩子比起一般家庭的孩子而言,在学校里会学的更少,更可能辍学和收入较低。同时,因为不善于处理家庭问题,他们自己日后的家庭也趋于不稳定(简言之单亲家庭的孩子长大后更易于组成新的单亲家庭)。These two sides often talk past each other. But their explanations are not contradictory: both economics and social change are to blame, and the two causes reinforce each other. Moreover, these problems are likely to get worse. Technology will disrupt more industries, creating benefits for society but rendering workers who fail to update their skills redundant. The OECD, a think-tank, predicts that the absolute number of single-parent households will continue to rise in nearly all rich countries. Boys who grow up without fathers are more likely to have trouble forming lasting relationships, creating a cycle of male dysfunction.这两种政治倾向的讨论话题往往会相互交叉重叠。但二者的观点却并不矛盾:经济状况和社会这二者的变革都是造成此类现状的原因,而这二者还互为因果,形成恶性循环。此外,这些问题可能变得更糟。科技将瓦解更多的行业,为社会创造更多的价值,但也将使更多的无法升级自身技能的劳动者失业。 经济合作与发展组织里的一个诸葛天团预测单亲家庭的比例定会继续在所有发达国家中上升。在没有父性角色的家庭长大的男孩,将更可能不能处理好长久关系(如夫妻关系)以至于形成新的单亲家庭,由此形成一个男性功能紊乱的死循环。Tinker, tailor, soldier, hairdresser锅匠,裁缝,士兵和美发师What can be done? Part of the solution lies in a change in cultural attitudes. Over the past generation, middle-class men have learned that they need to help with child care, and have changed their behaviour. Working-class men need to catch up. Women have learned that they can be surgeons and physicists without losing their femininity. Men need to understand that traditional manual jobs are not coming back, and that they can be nurses or hairdressers without losing their masculinity.那么问题来了,我们能做什么呢?其一在于改变文化态度。在过去的一代,中产阶层的男士知晓了他们需要帮忙照看小孩,并由此改变了他们的行为。工人阶层的男士们需要加紧脚步赶上来了。女士知晓了她们可以成为外科医师和物理学家而不失其女性魅力。男人们需要明白传统的体力工作一去不复返,他们可以成为护士或美发师而不失其男性霸气侧漏之美。Policymakers also need to lend a hand, because foolish laws are making the problem worse. America reduces the supply of marriageable men by locking up millions of young males for non-violent offences and then making it hard for them to find work when they get out (in Georgia, for example, felons are barred from feeding pigs, fighting fires or working in funeral homes). A number of rich countries discourage poor people from marrying or cohabiting by cutting their benefits if they do.政府决策人也需搭把手,因为愚蠢的法令会令问题变得更糟。美国减少了对被关押的以百万数计的非暴力犯罪的处于适婚年龄的年轻男子的持,并在他们出狱后找工作这种事上还要制绊脚石造(以乔治亚州为例,罪犯被禁止从事养猪,救火或在殡葬馆工作)。在一些发达国家,为了阻止穷人结婚或者同居这一目的,通过如果他们这么干的话就砍掉他们的福利这种手段来达到。Even more important than scrapping foolish policies is retooling the educational system, which was designed in an age when most men worked with their muscles. Politicians need to recognise that boysunderachievement is a serious problem, and set about fixing it. Some sensible policies that are good for everybody are particularly good for boys. Early-childhood education provides boys with more structure and a better chance of developing verbal and social skills. Countries with successful vocational systems such as Germany have done a better job than Anglo-Saxon countries of motivating non-academic boys and guiding them into jobs, but policymakers need to reinvent vocational education for an age when trainees are more likely to get jobs in hospitals than factories.不过比起废弃愚蠢的政策,改革设计于大多数男人都是用肌肉(而非脑)工作的年代的教育系统显得更为重要。政治家门应该意识到男孩们的学习成绩不良师一个很严峻的问题,并应立足于改善之。一些明智的政策是为每个人都好,特别是对男孩。早期儿童教育会提供男孩们更系统并更能更好的发展他们的口语能力和社会技能。有着成功的职业教育系统的国家如德国,在鼓励男孩去学术化,重职业化,并指导他们工作上,已经做的比起盎格鲁-撒克逊国家而言要好的多了。但政策制定者应将恢复职业教育的重心放在使受训者更倾向于日后在医院工作而不是在工厂工作这种时代要求上。More generally, schools need to become more boy-friendly. They should recognise that boys like to rush around more than girls do: it’s better to give them lots of organised sports and energy-eating games than to dose them with Ritalin or tell them off for fidgeting. They need to provide more male role models: employing more male teachers in primary schools will both supply boys with a male to whom they can relate and demonstrate that men can be teachers as well as firefighters.更广泛而言,学校需要变得更亲男孩化一些。他们应该意识到男孩比起女孩而言就是会更可能到处闯祸:比起给他们吃药或告诫他们不要乱动而言,最好还是提供给他们一些有组织的运动和耗费精力的游戏。他们需要男性榜样角色:在小学阶段,雇佣更多的男性教师,这不但可以给男孩子提供他们可以认同的男性角色,还可以为男人可以像成为消防员一样的成为教师提供实。The growing equality of the sexes is one of the biggest achievements of the post-war era: people have greater opportunities than ever before to achieve their ambitions regardless of their gender. But some men have failed to cope with this new world. It is time to give them a hand.男女越来越平等是战后我们取得的重大成就之一:比起以前,现今人们不论性别都可以拥有更好的机会去实现他们的梦想。但是一些男士未能适应这个新的世界,是时候对他们伸出援手了。 译者:张家铭 译文属译生译世 /201506/379374

Demography人口统计学The strange case of the missing baby婴儿的离奇流失As the financial crisis hit, birth rates fell in rich countries, as expected. But a persistent baby bust is a real puzzle正如人们所预料那样,金融危机的冲击导致发达国家的出生率下降。但持久的生育低谷才是一个真实的谜团。HE IS not exactly leading by example, but Pope Francis wants more babies. “The great challenge of Europe is to return to being mother Europe,” he said last year, while suggesting that young people might be having too few children because they preferred holidays. Europe certainly lacks young souls, particularly in Catholic countries such as Italy and Spain. But the baby shortage is broader: mother America and mother Australia have gone missing, too.他自己并非以身作则,但教宗方济各想要有更多的婴儿出生。他在去年说道,“欧洲所面临的重大挑战就是,恢复作为一名欧洲母亲的身份,”同时也暗示,年轻人也许不喜欢多生几个孩子,因为他们更喜欢假期。确实,欧洲缺乏年轻人,尤其是在意大利和西班牙这样的天主教国家。但婴儿短缺的范围更为广泛:美国母亲和澳大利亚母亲也越来越少了。They were certainly present a decade ago. Although birth rates were low in the former communist countries of eastern Europe, and in traditionalist places where it is hard to combine work with motherhood—think Japan, South Korea and southern Europe—many countries were having a baby boom. In the decade to 2008, the total fertility rate (the number of children a woman can expect to have in her lifetime based on present patterns) rose in much of the rich world. In Britain it went up from 1.68 to 1.91; in Australia from 1.76 to 2.02; and in Sweden from 1.5 to 1.91. America even managed to reach the “replacement rate” of 2.1, meaning its population was sustaining itself, without taking migration into account.在十年前,他们是确实存在着的。尽管在东欧的前社会主义国家,以及难以将工作与母亲身份结合的传统之地中,如日本、韩国和欧洲南部地区,出生率低下—但许多国家都经历过婴儿潮时期。到2008年为止的十年间,大部分发达国家的生育率均上升了(生育率是指在既有模式下,一位女性希望在其一生中生育的孩子的数量)。在英国,生育率从1.68上升至1.91;在澳大利亚,生育率从1.76上升至2.02;在瑞典,该指标从1.5上升至1.91。美国甚至达到2.1的“人口置换率”,这意味着,在不考虑移民的情况下,该国人口基本保持不变。There were two reasons, says Tomas Sobotka of the Vienna Institute of Demography. First, women who had delayed having children while they studied and started careers hurried to the maternity wards while they still could. Births to women in their 30s, which had been rising gently for years, went up further in Norway and elsewhere. Second, fertility among women in their 20s stopped falling.维也纳人口统计学研究所的托马斯·索特卡表示,导致这种现象的原因有两个。首先,那些因为学习或者事业刚起步而延迟怀的女性都趁自己身体状况允许的条件下着急生育。这些年来,30几岁才生育的女性数量一直在缓慢增加,在挪威以及别的地方增长得更快。其次,20几岁生育的女性数量也逐渐减少。The financial crisis abruptly turned the boom to bust. Countries in the European Union delivered 5,469,000 babies in 2008 but only 5,075,000 in 2013—a drop of over 7%. That was too much for Kimberly-Clark, the maker of Huggies nappies, which announced in 2012 that it would pull out of most of Europe. In America the fertility rate fell from a peak of 2.12 in 2007 to 1.86 in 2014. Ken Johnson, a demographer at the University of New Hampshire, estimated that America was missing 2.3m babies.金融危机突然地将婴儿潮转变为生育低谷。在2008年,欧盟国家共有5,469,000名婴儿出生,而在2013年,仅有5,075,000名——下跌超过7%。这对于好奇纸尿布的制造商金佰利克拉克而言,实在是太多了。金佰利在2012年宣布将退出大部分欧洲市场。在美国,生育率从2007年的顶点值2.12跌至2014年的1.86。新罕布尔什大学的人口学家肯·约翰逊估计,美国已流失230万婴儿。The crunch was unsurprising: anxiety about jobs and money puts people off children. But a rich-world baby bust that began predictably turned into a puzzle.这一窘境在人们意料之中:对工作和金钱的担忧使得人们推迟要孩子的计划。但原本可预计的生育低谷发生在发达国家却变成了一个谜。 译文属译生译世 /201605/444566

Europe Greece and the euro欧洲 希腊与欧元Toil and trouble受苦受难The government gets its latest austerity measures through, but only just希腊新一轮紧缩政策终以微弱优势通过Greece’s fragile coalition government only narrowly averted disaster on November 7th when it won parliamentary approval for a drastic new austerity package. The package scraped through with 153 votes to 128 in the 300-member house.11月7日,希腊风雨飘零的联合政府终于在国会通过了新一轮大规模财政紧缩的一揽子计划,但全过程命悬一线。在300人组成的国会中,该计划仅以153票对128票的微弱优势勉强得到通过。Antonis Samaras, the prime minister, made the best of it, saying that “Greece has turned a page.” Meanwhile furious anti-austerity protesters outside parliament hurled stones and Molotov cocktails at police in what has become a grim ritual.希腊总理安东尼斯·萨马拉斯(Antonis Samaras)对此大加吹捧,表示此刻“希腊翻开了崭新的一页”。而与此同时,紧缩政策的反对者们十分愤怒,他们在国会外向警察投掷石块和燃烧弹,这一严峻的事实已令人习以为常。The debate over the latest austerity measures, the toughest yet, had turned angry even before lawmakers studied the 500-page “poly-law” before them. Presenting the four-year programme to parliament’s economics committee, Yannis Stournaras, the finance minister, fended off attacks from Syriza, the leftist opposition party, pointing out that if it were voted down Greece would lose a desperately needed 31.5 billion euro( billion) slice of its bail-out funding, would default on its next debt repayment and would surely then make a disorderly exit from the euro.本次财政紧缩是目前规模最大的一次,甚至在立法机关亲自研究了这500页的“多方法案”之前,关于该政策的论辩已被激化。向国会经济委员会递呈这项四年计划的是希腊财长亚尼斯·斯图纳拉斯(Yannis Stournaras)。面对左翼反对党派“希腊极左翼联盟”(Syriza)的抨击,他回应称,若该计划未得到通过,那么,希腊将失去其急需的一笔315亿欧元(约400亿美元)救助金,进而无法在下一规定时间完成债务偿还,最终必然退出欧元区,引发经济混乱。Mr Stournaras had gradually given ground over four months of negotiations with the “troika” of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the IMF on the package to be implemented in 2013 and 2014. Greek proposals for cuts in government operating costs were rejected as unrealistic. So they were replaced by “permanent” spending reductions, code for slashing salaries and pensions.斯图纳拉斯财长与“三驾马车”(troika,即欧盟、欧洲央行和国际货币基金组织)就本次预计于2013年至2014年实行的紧缩计划进行过谈判。在这场长达4个多月的谈判中,斯图纳拉斯不断陷入被动。希腊政府曾提议削减政府运营资本,但“三驾马车”认为该计划不够现实而予以否决。因此,最终希腊政府接受了“永久性”减少政府开,这表示公务员的收入和年金将遭到大幅削减。Many elderly Greeks’ worst fears were realised when the law was unveiled. The biggest chunk of savings next year, about 4.6 billion euro, comes from reducing pensions, starting with a 5% cut for those on a modest 1,000 euro a month. “It feels as if the troika has selected the old for special punishment,” commented Constantina Athanassakis, a 70-year-old retired hairdresser.这一法案出炉的同时,众多希腊老人的噩梦成真了。政府明年预计达到的财政储蓄额度中,约46亿欧元的大头将通过降低养老金来获得。而首当其冲的则是对每月1000欧元的低额年金削减5%。“看来三驾马车选择让老人来接受这特殊的惩罚。”年高70的退休理发师Constantina Athanassakis表示。Salaries of better-paid public-sector workers such as central-bank employees, university teachers, judges and hospital doctors, will also be cut. Salaries at public-sector corporations are being reduced by 35% and capped at 5,000 euro a month, which means take-home pay of just 2,900 euro for bosses and fewer perks. Some cuts will be backdated. Next year’s budget assumes the economy will shrink by another 4.5%, but local economists predict that a collapse in spending by cash-strapped consumers could lead to an even bigger fall.而如央行职员、大学教师、法院法官和医院医生这些公共部门的高薪岗位,同样面临减薪。国有企业员工的降薪幅度达35%,月薪将不得高于5000欧元。换言之,领导们的税后月薪将仅为2900欧元,津贴也将大幅缩减。其中,部分减薪还将提前施行。据财政部估计,明年希腊经济规模将再次缩减4.5%。但希腊国内经济学家则预计,本已囊中羞涩的消费者,加上本次开削减,将使希腊经济面临进一步衰退。Antonis Samaras, the centre-right prime minister, promises this will be the “last and final” round of cuts. But Greece’s creditors are not so sure, given the poor record of all Greek governments on reform. The economy is not expected to start growing again before 2015. Few observers expect the government to keep to its new timetable of cutting 110,000 civil-service jobs by 2016. The privatisation programme has been disappointing. With Greece looking politically unstable and facing two more years of recession, it will be hard to attract foreign investors.对此,身处中间偏右派立场的萨马拉斯总理承诺本轮紧缩将是“最后最后一次”。但鉴于希腊政府在改革上鲜有佳绩,其债权国则并不表示乐观。据预计,希腊经济将至2015年才有望再次回升。希腊政府最新出台了2016年前削减11万公务员岗位的安排,但并不为观察家们所看好。另外,其私有化计划也收效甚微。像希腊这样政局动荡,外加后两年经济不振的国家,实非海外投资者的佳选。It does not help that Mr Samaras’s three-party coalition is increasingly fragile. His centre-right New Democracy party is expected to stay loyal at the next parliamentary test, approving the 2013 budget this weekend. Fotis Kouvelis, leader of the small Democratic Left, has also pledged to back the government. But his decision to abstain from the vote on November 7th has undermined his credibility with Mr Samaras. Mr Kouvelis could soon face a leadership challenge.即使财政紧缩计划得到了通过,也无力挽回萨马拉斯总理领导下三党联合政府(由希腊“新民主党”、“泛希腊社会主义运动”与“左翼民主党”于今年6月协商联合成立的政府,译者注)走向衰弱的事实。萨马拉斯总理所在的中右翼“新民主党”(New Democracy)将持下一轮国会的考验,即本周末通过2013年财政预算。联合政府中的小党“左翼民主党”(Democratic Left)党首佛提斯·科维利斯(Fotis Kouvelis)同样宣誓忠于政府决定。但11月7日法案投票当天,科维利斯宣布弃权。这一行为有损于他与萨马拉斯总理间的信任。因此,科维利斯此后不久可能乌纱不保。Many observers also believe that Evangelos Venizelos, leader of the PanHellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok), may be unseated. Mr Venizelos’s reluctance when serving as finance minister to investigate the so-called Lagarde list of 2,000 Greeks with bank accounts in Geneva has annoyed many in his party. Several former ministers think they could do a better job of rebuilding Pasok’s popularity, which is at an all-time low of around 6%, according to the polls. Yet if Pasok fragments, the government risks losing its majority—and the prospect of a Grexit will loom yet again.据众多观察家表示,同样面临失势的还有“泛希腊社会主义运动”(Pasok,简称“泛希社运”)领导人伊万格勒斯·维尼则罗斯(Evangelos Venizelos)。这位前财长在任期间曾拒绝调查所谓的“拉加德名单”,该名单中记录着2000名拥有日内瓦账户的希腊人信息(即2000名有逃税嫌疑的希腊人,译者注)。此行为引来其党内众多人士的不满。据民调显示,泛希社运的持率跌至历史最低的6%。对此,众多前任要员都认为,在重振该党持率上,自己一定比维尼则罗斯要干得出色。但若泛希社运一旦分裂,联合政府可能失去国会的多数席位。随之而来的,将是“希腊脱欧”危机的再一次降临。翻译:沈骜译文属译生译世 /201608/461574


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