赣州注射丰太阳穴99共享

来源:搜狐娱乐
原标题: 赣州注射丰太阳穴爱问面诊
Yael: Hey Don, I bet you think youre pretty smart. Don, 我赌你认为自己很聪明。Don: Well, uhm, Yael, I guess so. I mean, Im no genius or anything. 恩,我猜是的。我的意思是,我不是天才也不是别的。Y: Relax. I just meant that you have a big brain compared to most other animals. 放松。我只是说与大部分其他动物相比你的脑容量会比较大。D: OK. I guess in that sense I am pretty smart--at least compared to a chimp or something. 好吧。从这方面来说那我想我确实相当聪明——至少和黑猩猩一类的动物作比较。Y: But guess what--about ten-thousand years ago there was a race of people who may have been even smarter than we modern humans. 但你想想——一万年前有一个种族甚至会比我们现代人类更加聪明。D: Really? Who where they? 真的吗?他们是谁,他们又在哪?Y: Theyre known as the Boskops because thats the region in South Africa where their fossils were first found. 它们被称为斯科普人。因为他们是在南非的一个地方,在那里人们首次发现了化石。And the cool thing is that the Boskops appear to have had skulls that were a lot bigger than ours. 而且很惊人的是,斯科普人似乎有着比我们还要大的头骨。D: Which would mean that their brains were probably bigger than ours, too! But does that mean they were necessarily smarter? 那也就意味着他们的大脑比我们的还要大!但那足以能明他们比我们更聪明吗?Y: Well, thats impossible to know for sure. 恩,那确实是说不好的。But consider that our bigger brains allow us to imagine possibilities and alternate realities in ways that smaller-brained animals cant, as far as we know. 但据我们所知,我们的大脑能够想象的到一切可能发生的事情而且还能够改变现实,这些都是脑容量小的动物们做不到的。Now, if you imagine a person with a brain significantly larger than normal, it stands to reason that theyd be able to process more information at once and see and imagine things in ways that are beyond us. 现在,你想象有这么一个人,他的脑容量大于正常水平。那么他就足以加工更多的信息而且还能够想象的到我们之前想象不到的事情。D: Thats interesting. But if the Boskops were so smart, where are they now? 那真有趣。但如果说斯科普人那么聪明的话,他们现在又在哪呢?Y: They died out, obviously. And that may be simply because their heads were so big that babies heads had a hard time fitting through the birth canal. 显然,他们都灭绝了。很简单,是因为他们的脑袋太大了以至于婴儿的由很难挤出产道。Maybe too many Boskop babies died in childbirth. 也许太多的斯科普小宝宝都死在分娩时期。D: So I guess it doesnt always pay to have a big brain. 所以我想有个大脑袋不一定是值得的。Y: Maybe not. 也许不是。201308/253893In the early 70s, when Gil met them, 在70年代早期,当吉尔遇见他们,Filhos De Gandhi were in a bad way, 菲力奥斯·德·甘地正境况不佳,they were the only Bloco Afro in Bahia, 他们是在巴伊亚唯一的桑巴,playing African at ceremonies, that they have few members and werent even taking part in Carnival. 在各种仪式上演奏非洲音乐,他们有几名成员,甚至不是参加狂欢节。Gil joined the group and brought them new fame and popularity with a song about them, 吉尔加入了这一组织,歌曲带给他们新的名誉和声望,but he performed with Gori band.但是他与戈里乐队一起演出。The song helped Filhos De Gandhi win new members and a new following. 这首歌帮助菲力奥斯·德·甘地得到新成员及一件接下来的喜事。In the military era, the resurgence of a black religious carnival group like this was seen a sign of resistance in Salvador. 在军事掌权时代,复兴的黑人宗教嘉年华组织被视若萨尔瓦多阻挠的标志。201305/240318

Lots of people have had dreams that seem to foretell thefuture.许多人都做过一些好像可以预知未来的梦。Some psychologists attribute this to “retrieval cues.”心理学家把这种现象归因于“提取线索”。Retrieval cues?提取线索?A retrieval cue is a coincidence in the real world thattriggers a dream memory which otherwise would have goneunnoticed.提取是一种巧合:现生活中的某个场景让你回忆起一个不被注意梦境。For example, did you know you dreamed about a little dog before the real dog showed up?比如,你知道你梦到的那只小出现在真实的之前吗?Oh, yes, I was thinking about it all morning.是的。我整个早上都在想这个梦。Really?真的吗?Welll, I think so.我想是吧。Maybe, or maybe the real event triggered a recollection of a dream, which not seems like itmust have been in your thoughts all along.也许吧,有或许是真实事件让你回忆起某个梦境,而这个梦境不一定一直都在你的脑海中。By the way did you have any other dreams last nightthat didnt come true?顺便问一下,你昨天晚上还做了其它没有实现的梦吗?Hmm, I dont remember what other else I dreamed.嗯,其他做过的梦都不记得了。Why not? Some studies suggest we have literally hundreds of dreams each night.为什么不记得了呢?有研究称我们每天晚上要做数百个梦。Ok, I get the point.好,我知道了。Maybe this dreaming the future stuff is more like picking and choosingdreams when they happen to fit. 也许梦见未来这种事更像是从成千上百个梦的中挑选一个碰巧合适情景的。Coincidences are bound to come up.所以,巧合就发生了。And if the coincidence acts as retrieval cue, the sensethat you predicted something can be pretty convincing…even if its just a dream.如果巧合作为提取线索,你能预测未来就相当有说力,尽管那只是一个梦。201406/303191German roads德国公路Charging the neighbours向邻居收费Bavaria is getting Germany to make foreigners pay for driving on its roads巴伐利亚正努力促使德国向使用本国公路的外国人收取费用。BAVARIANS have long been cranky about having to pay road tolls every time they drive through Austria, say, whereas foreigners pay nothing to drive on German roads. Last year the Christian Social Union (CSU), a party that exists only in Bavaria but is the partner of Angela Merkels Christian Democratic Union (CDU), campaigned on “plugging this justice gap.” Mrs Merkel found the proposal silly, and against European Union rules. But the CSU made it a condition of joining a coalition government.每当开车去奥地利的时候都要交通行费,而外国人在德国公路上行驶啥都不交。巴伐利亚人提到这事就抓狂,忍了很久了。去年基督教社会联盟(CSU)—这个党只存在于巴伐利亚州但它是Angela Merke所领导的基督教民主联盟的伙伴—宣称要“塞上这个公平的缺口”。默克尔觉得这项提议很荒唐,而且违反欧盟法令。不过CSU却把这条当作加入联合政府的一样条件。On July 7th Alexander Dobrindt, the transport minister and a rising talent in the CSU, unveiled a plan to square a tricky circle. The new law must charge foreign drivers on German roads; but, second, impose no extra costs on German drivers; and, third, comply with EU law, which forbids discrimination against other EU citizens.在7月7日的时候,Alexander Dobrindt,这位德国交通运输部部长和CSU正在崛起的天才,目前揭示了一项计划,用以打破紧箍咒。首先,新法令规定必须向在德国公路上行驶的外国驾驶员收费;不过其次对于德国驾驶员而言,并不收取额外的费用;而第三点是遵循欧盟法令而言的,禁止对他过欧盟公民的歧视。Mr Dobrindt proposes to charge everybody, foreign or German, for driving on any German road from January 2016. Drivers will have three options: a ten-day pass for 10 (.60), a two-month one for 20, or an annual one. The third of these, which all German drivers need by default but foreigners may also buy through the internet, would cost 88 on average, but vary with the size and emissions of the car.Dobrindt 承诺2016年1月开始,只要在德国公路上开车,就对所有人收费,无论是外国人还是德国人。驾驶员将有三种选择:10天的过路许可为10欧(13.60美元),两个月的过路许可为20欧,或者选择一个年许可。对于第三项选择,所有德国驾驶员不用理会而外国人也可以通过网上渠道办理,平均费用为88欧,但具体花费要根据车型和排放量而定。To ensure that Germans will not pay any more overall, Mr Dobrindt simultaneously wants to reform Germanys vehicle tax. Drivers of cars registered in Germany would be given a new tax exemption worth the exact amount of their new annual road-user charge.为了保总体上德国人不必为过路费问题而花钱,Dobrindt同时想改革德国的交通税。在德国登记注册测量的车主将享受新的免税政策,其所免额度相当于他们办理新的年度许可所花费的费用。The Netherlands and Austria threaten to take Germany to court if the law passes. Siim Kallas, the EUs transport commissioner, has so far given “no green or red light.” German opposition parties ridicule the idea as bureaucratic overkill. Even members of the ruling coalition are rolling their eyes. But as so often before, the Bavarians must be accommodated to keep the peace.荷兰和奥地利威胁德国人,如果这项法令得以通过,就将德国告至欧盟法院。欧盟交通运输委员会委员Siim Kallas目前为止并未“明确提出行还是不行”。德国反对党嘲笑这个想法,认为这是官僚式的矫揉造作。即便是联合政府的同盟们也睁大眼睛对着这项法案滴溜查看。不过和之前一样,巴伐利亚人必须忍耐,保持淡定。 /201407/311749

Online business and security网络商业及网络安全A digital heart attack电子心脏病A flaw in popular internet-security software could have serious consequences for all sorts of business广泛使用的网络安全软件出现漏洞,可能会殃及几乎所有企业THE Heartbleed bug sounds like a nasty coronary condition. But it is in fact a software flaw that has left up to two-thirds of the worlds websites vulnerable to attack by hackers. “This is potentially the most dangerous bug that we have seen for a long, long time,” says James Beeson, the chief information security officer of GE Capital Americas, an arm of GE. Since its existence was revealed on April 7th by researchers at Codenomicon, a security outfit, and Google, countless companies around the world that rely on the internet for part or all of their business have been scrambling to fix the flaw.“心脏流血”,听起来像是某种严重的心脏病的名称。但事实上,它是一个软件漏洞的名字,此漏洞使得全球三分之二的网站暴露于被黑客攻击的危险之中。“这可能是近些年来发现过的最危险的漏洞了,”通用电气旗下的通用电气金融务公司的首席信息安全官詹姆士·比森说道。这个漏洞是由网络安全研究团队Codenomicon和谷歌于四月七日发现的,自从那时起,全球范围内,只要是或多或少依靠互联网的公司,都火急火燎地在修补漏洞。Ironically, the bug was discovered in OpenSSL, encryption software that was designed to make the internet more secure. Available free, this open-source code is popular with businesses and governments, which use it to help secure everything from online credit-card transactions to public services. On April 9th, for instance, Canadas tax authority shut off public access to its online services while it checked the security of its systems in the light of news about the bug.讽刺的是,这个漏洞是在OpenSSl中发现的,而后者是一个用于提升网络安全的加密软件。OpenSSL是一个免费的开源软件,被企业和政府部门广泛使用,用于保护信用卡交易或公共务的安全。比如加拿大税务部门的提供的公众网络务就使用了OpenSSL,在得知漏洞的存在后,税务部门便在四月九日关闭了务。The flaw makes it possible for hackers to trick a server into spewing out data held in its memory. OpenSSL has a feature known as a “heartbeat” that allows a computer at one end of an encrypted link to send occasional signals to the computer at the other end of it, to check that it is still online. The researchers discovered that a hacker with knowledge of the bug could replicate this signal and use it to steal all manner of data from a remote computer.“心血”漏洞增加了黑客套取存储在务器上的数据的可能性。OpenSSL有一个名为“心跳”的功能,允许加密链接一端的电脑随机发出一条信息,确认另一端的电脑是否仍然在线。研究人发现,一个熟悉“心血”漏洞的黑客,可以通过复制这个信号来盗取远程计算机上的所有数据。Those data could include encryption keys that let hackers decipher traffic. To make matters worse, the researchers found that the bug, which is present in some versions of OpenSSL that have been available since March 2012, allows attacks to be mounted without leaving a trace in targeted computers “server logs”, so victims are unaware their systems have been compromised. That means it is impossible to tell for sure what damage has been done.这些数据可能包括可以让黑客解码之前通信内容的密钥。更糟糕的是,研究人员发现,此漏洞从2012起就开始在OpenSSL的一些版本中出现;而且,黑客通过此漏洞攻击时不会在其目标计算机的“务器日志”中留下痕迹,所以,受害者无法察觉到自己的系统已经被入侵了。The bug has forced companies to find out fast how many of their systems employ the vulnerable versions of OpenSSL. “Everyone knows they have to patch their customer-facing internet websites, but that is only the tip of the iceberg,” says Jonathan Sander of STEALTHbits Technologies, a security firm that is helping one of Americas biggest banks work out where it has deployed the buggy software. Web-connected systems that handle things such as accounting and personnel data will also need to be checked for the bug.这个漏洞促使企业迅速查明它们自己有哪些系统使用了存在漏洞的OpenSSL。“所有人都知道要去修补他们面向客户的网站,但那些只是冰山一角,”安全公司STEALTHbits Technologies的乔纳森·桑德说。该公司正在帮助美国的一家大型定位其系统上的漏洞。其他联网系统,例如处理帐务和私人信息的联网系统,都有必要检查一下是否有漏洞。Mr Sander likens the discovery of the Heartbleed bug to finding a faulty part in nearly every make and model of car. The problem is that the internet cannot be recalled. Big web companies such as Google and Yahoo have moved fast to deal with the bug. But millions of smaller e-commerce sites and other businesses face the worrying prospect of being attacked by hackers alerted to the bugs existence as the firms race to fix the problem.桑德说,发现“心血”漏洞,就好比汽车厂商在它的每款车里都发现一个同一个缺陷。但问题是,互联行业里没有召回这一说。像谷歌和雅虎这样的大型网络公司已经立即处理了漏洞。但是还有大量的小型的电商网站和其他类型的小公司只能一边抢修,一边担心被那些获悉漏洞存在的黑客的攻击。The cure includes applying a software “patch” and then choosing new encryption keys to replace those that may have been compromised. Once this has been done, customers will often need to change their passwords too. Tumblr, a blogging service owned by Yahoo, has urged its users to change the passwords they use for all of the secure online services that hold sensitive data about them. Some companies even chose to suspend services while they were working on a fix. Bitstamp, a Bitcoin e-currency exchange, temporarily suspended new account registrations and logins to its existing accounts.补救的办法包括给软件打“补丁”,然后用新密钥替换那些可能被盗取的密钥。完成了这两步之后,用户通常还需要更改他们的密码。雅虎旗下提供务的Tumblr就强烈建议用户更改所有包含他们敏感信息的务的密码。有些公司甚至在其修补漏洞期间暂停了务。比特币交易网站Bitstamp就暂时关闭了注册和登录务。Another Y2 K?另一个千年虫?Perhaps the risk posed by the Heartbleed bug will turn out to be overblown. But if it emerges that companies systems have indeed been hacked because of it, this could open a legal can of worms. Firms could argue that they ought not to be punished for using widely trusted security software. But aggrieved customers—and their lawyers—may see things differently.也许,“心血”漏洞可能造成的风险被夸大了。但是一旦真的有公司因此漏洞被黑客入侵了,就可能引起极为棘手的法律纠纷。企业可能会自辩说其不应该因使用被广泛信任的安全软件受罚。但受害的用户和他们的律师可不会这么想。Quite how the bug got into the OpenSSL software in the first place is a mystery. Bruce Schneier, an internet-security expert, argues in a blog post that “the probability is close to one” that intelligence agencies have exploited the glitch to nab the encryption keys needed to decipher information about their targets. His guess is that the glitch is the result of a coding error rather than the handiwork of spies, though he says he cannot be sure.至于究竟这个漏洞最初是如何出现在OpenSSL中的,这还是一个谜。网络安全专家布鲁斯·施奈尔在他的一篇客里称,“毫无疑问”,情报部门已利用此漏洞盗取密钥以获取其监控目标的信息。虽然他不能完全肯定,但他认为漏洞是编程失误的结果,不太可能是间谍的杰作。No matter who is to blame, this episode is another reminder of the security challenges companies face as ever more economic activity shifts online. According to eMarketer, a research outfit, worldwide business-to-consumer e-commerce sales are likely to grow by just over a fifth this year, to .5 trillion. That is a huge commercial opportunity, but it will also encourage cyber-crooks to target businesses even more vigorously. Expect more computer-security heartburn in boardrooms.不管幕后黑手到底是谁,这个事件再一次提醒我们,在企业不断将经济活动向线上转移的过程中,它们将面临大量的安全挑战。据一个名为eMarketer的市场调查公司称,今年全球B2C电商的销售总额将有望达到1.5万亿美元,同比增长超过五分之一。这是巨大的商机,同时也会让网络罪犯们更坚定地咬住企业这块肥肉。就让董事会的老爷们为此烧心窝火吧。 /201404/288732

Business商业报道British law firms英国律师事务所Taking the magic abroad进军梦幻般的国外市场Londons big law firms are expanding their global footprints伦敦的大型律师事务所正在进行全球扩张LAWYERS are cautious folk.律师是十分谨慎的人群。So the recent collapse of Dewey amp; Leboeuf, a big American law firm, has scared them.因此,最近美国大型律师事务所Dewey amp; Leboeuf的倒闭已经吓坏了他们。Dewey failed because it tried to grow too fast, by borrowing too much money.Dewey律师事务所之所以倒闭,是因为急切扩张,借贷了大量贷款。Other firms still want to grow, but they are doing so slowly and carefully.其他事务所仍然寻求发展,但他们做的比较缓慢和小心。Consider Londons top five law firms, known as the magic circle.以伦敦最大的五家律师事务所为例,他们被称为梦幻集团。Allen amp; Overy and Clifford Chance released results early this week, and Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer and Linklaters were expected to do so later.Allen amp; Overy和Clifford Chance在周初发布了他们的业绩报告,Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer 和 Linklaters随后也将发布业绩报告。Allen amp; Overy had a good year, with its revenues growing by 6% and its profits by 7%. Clifford Chance, the biggest, did even better, with revenues up by 7% and profits up by 13%.Allen amp; Overy事务所的收益不错,总收入增长6%,利润增长7%。最大的Clifford Chance事务所表现的更好,总收入增长7%,利润增长13%。Emerging markets are where the growth is.这种增长来自于新兴市场。Allen amp; Overy now gets 22% of its revenue from such places, up from 15% a few years ago.Allen amp; Overy事务所来自于新兴市场的收入从几年前的15%增长到22%。It opened an office in Vietnam a month ago and another in Jakarta 17 months previously.它一个月前在越南开了一个营业处,17个月前在雅加达同样开了另一个。As for China, so many Western firms have piled in that they have competed each others fees down,对于中国,涌入了如此多的事务所以至于他们相互低价竞争。but Wim Dejonghe, Allen amp; Overys boss, is still optimistic:但Allen amp; Overy的比利时老板Wim Dejonghe仍然很乐观,他表示:the centre of gravity has moved from Shanghai to Beijing, he says, as the focus has shifted from inbound mergers and investment to Chinese money flowing out.市场的中心已经从上海转移到北京,因为焦点已经从入境兼并和投资转移到中国资金的外流。David Childs, the boss of Clifford Chance, is also bullish on China.Clifford Chance的老板David Childs同样看好中国市场。His firm cut partners during the recession,在经济萧条期间他的公司削减了合作伙伴,but not in Asia, the Middle East or Brazil.但不是在亚洲,中东和巴西。As for downward pressure on fees, Mr Childs says, slowly, They are very careful buyers…in Asia, before insisting that his firm has no trouble with pricing there.就收费走低的压力的问题,Childs先生缓缓地说:亚洲人是很谨慎的买家。随后他坚持,在亚洲他的公司没有定价方面的困扰。The firms revenues grew by 28% in Asia this year, thanks in part to a push into Australia.transaction flows.今年公司在亚洲地区的收入增长了28%,部分是得益于进入澳大利亚市场。Next year will be tougher: though bank regulatory work and dispute resolution are providing steady fees, Id much rather have healthy明年的形式可能会困难一些:尽管监管工作和调解纠纷在提供稳定的酬金,我更希望拥有可观的交易佣金收入。The magic circle may be getting a new competitor.梦幻集团可能会有一个新的竞争者。Herbert Smith, a second-tier firm, announced a merger with Freehills, one of Australias biggest, on June 28th.6月28日,位于行业第二集团的Herbert Smith事务所宣布与Freehills事务所进行合并,后者是澳大利亚最大的律师事务所之一。With revenues of over billion, the merged firm will be bigger than Slaughter and May.合并后的事务所将以10亿美元的收入超过Slaughter and May事务所。It will push for work related to Austrialias commodity boom and Asian capital markets.它将推进与澳大利亚商品市场和亚洲资本市场等相关的工作的发展。But David Willis, Herbert Smiths boss, is keen to stress the firms un-Dewey-like gradualism:但Herbert Smith的老板David Willis着重强调公司不同于Dewey的增长模式:Were not expecting a huge increase in earnings in year one.我们不期望在一年之内实现收入的大幅增长。Thats not why were doing this.这不是我们进行合并的原因。 /201307/249195Leaders领导人们Investment management投资管理The rise of BlackRock贝莱德来了In 25 years, BlackRock has become the worlds biggest investor. Is its dominance a problem?贝莱德二十五年间成为世界上最大资产管理公司,一家独大会出问题吗?ASK conspiracy theorists who they think really runs the world, and they will probably point to global banks, such as Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase.问问阴谋论者到底是谁主宰着世界,他们很可能会将矛头指向跨国,比如花旗、美国、根大通,Oil giants such as Exxon Mobil and Shell may also earn a mention.石油巨头埃克森美孚、壳牌可能也会躺。Or perhaps they would focus on the consumer-goods firms that hold billions in their thrall: Apple, McDonalds or Nestlé.或许,还会有人揪着几家资产亿万的消费品公司不放:苹果、麦当劳、雀氏,诸如此类。One firm unlikely to feature on their list is BlackRock, an investment manager whose name rings few bells outside financial circles.有一家公司不大可能会入其法眼,那就是贝莱德集团,这家投资管理公司出了金融界可谓是知之者甚少。Yet it is the single biggest shareholder in all the companies listed above.然而,贝莱德却是上述所有上市公司中最大的一家。It owns a stake in almost every listed company not just in Americabut globally.贝莱德持有几乎所有上市公司的股票,不仅仅持有美国公司的股票,而是世界各国上市公司的股票。Its reach extends further: to corporate bonds, sovereign debt, commodities, hedge funds and beyond.贝莱德涉猎领域远不止这些:企业债券、债权债务、商品期货、对冲基金等其他投资项目都可以看到他的身影。It is easily the biggest investor in the world, with .1 trillion of directly controlled assets and another trillion it oversees through its trading platform, Aladdin.贝莱德直接管理的资产总值为4.1万亿美元,还通过Aladdin交易网络监管着11万亿美元的投资,这就使得贝莱德毫不费力便可登上全球最大投资公司的宝座。Established in 1988 by a group of Wall Streeters led by Larry Fink, BlackRock succeeded in part by offering passive investment products, such as exchange-traded funds, which aim to track indices such as the Samp;P 500.1988年,拉里芬克带着一帮华尔街精英成立了贝莱德集团,公司的成功在一定程度上要归功于推出诸如交易所交易基金的被动投资产品,该产品以同标普500这样的基础指数保持联动关系为目的。These are cheap alternatives to traditional mutual funds, which often do more to enrich money managers than clients.同传统的共同基金相比,该基金成本更低,通常投资公司会比客户收益更高。The sector continues to grow fast, and BlackRock, partly through its iShares brand, is the largest competitor in an industry where scale brings benefits.并且,交易所交易基金的业务增长迅速,在一个规模化才能产生效益的行业中,贝莱德成为了佼佼者。Its clients, ranging from Arab sovereign-wealth funds to mom-and-pop investors, save billions in fees as a result.贝莱德的客户,从阿拉伯的主权财富基金持有者到小投资者却因此省下了数以亿计的费用。The other reason for its success is its management of risk in its actively managed portfolio.贝莱德成功的另一原因在于对投资组合的风险的积极管理。Early on, for instance, it was a leader in mortgage-backed securities.比如,公司在其曾是按揭券行业的领跑者,But because it analysed their riskiness zipcode by zipcode, it not only avoided a bail-out in the chaos that followed the collapse of Lehman, but also advised the American government and others on how to keep the financial system ticking in the darkest days of 2008,通过一步步分析发现风险,不仅规避了雷曼兄弟破产后混乱的救市局面,还在2008年金融市场最黑暗的时候谏言美国政府及其他投资者,如何让市场继续运转下去。and picked up profitable money-management units from struggling financial institutions in the aftermath of the crisis.与此同时,在危机对金融机构带来的冲击余波未息之际,贝莱德自谋出路,甄选可盈利的资金管理项目。Other peoples money借鸡生蛋Compared with the many banks which are flourishing only thanks to state largesse, BlackRocks success—based on providing value to customers and paying attention to detail—is well-deserved.同许多依靠政府援手才能风光无限的相比,贝莱德的成功—基于让客户实现盈利及注重细节—实至名归。Yet when taxpayers have spent billions rescuing financial institutions deemed too big to fail, a 25-year-old company that has grown so vast so quickly sets nerves jangling.然而,当纳税人投入数以亿计的资金拯救一家被视作太大而不可能破产的金融机构时,这家成立仅25年却以惊人的速度发展壮大的公司不免会让人捏一把汗。American regulators are therefore thinking about designating BlackRock and some of its rivals as systemically important. The tag might land them with hefty regulatory requirements.因此,美国监管机构正考虑将贝莱德及其竞争对手定义为极为重要,或许这一标签会让监管部门背上强权机构的恶名。If the regulators concern is to avoid a repeat of the last crisis, they are barking up the wrong tree.如果监管部门想避免上次金融危机重演,那么他们就找错对象了。Unlike banks, whose loans and deposits go on their balance-sheets as assets and liabilities, BlackRock is a mere manager of other peoples money.同借、贷款都会以资产与负债形式计入资产负债表的不同,贝莱德更多只是客户资产管理者的身份。It has control over investments it holds on behalf of others—which gives it great influence—but it neither keeps the profits nor suffers the losses on them.他只是代表客户管理投资—这也让其影响力巨大—却不以投资的盈亏而赚钱或赔本。Whereas banks tumble if their assets lose even a fraction of their value, BlackRock can pass on any shortfalls to its clients, and withstand far greater shocks.只要出现一丁点亏损,便会牵一发而动全身;而无论客户出现任何损失,贝莱德都可以相安无事,即便再大的冲击都是如此。In fact, by being on hand to pick up assets cheaply from distressed sellers, an unleveraged asset manager arguably stabilises markets rather than disrupting them.事实上,通过低价收购亏损方出售的资产,毫无疑问一家独大的投资管理公司能够为市场带来稳定,而非混乱。But for regulators that want not merely to prevent a repeat of the last blow-up but also to identify the sources of future systemic perils, BlackRock raises another, subtler issue, concerning not the ownership of assets but the way buying and selling decisions are made.要不是监管机构不仅希望避免上次金融危机重演,还想确认未来体系风险的来源,贝莱德还会引发另一微妙的问题,不是资产的所有权,而是买入或卖出的决策方式。The trillion of assets managed on its Aladdin platform amount to around 7% of all the shares, bonds and loans in the world.Aladdin交易平台上监管的股票、债券、贷款占世界交易的7%左右,涉及资金总额为15万亿美元。As a result, those who oversee many of the worlds biggest pools of money are looking at the financial world, at least in part, through a lens crafted by BlackRock.正是如此,那些监管世界上最大金库的人在一定程度上是通过贝莱德精心打磨的镜头审视金融界;Some 17,000 traders in banks, insurance companies, sovereign-wealth funds and others rely in part on BlackRocks analytical models to guide their investing.近1.7万来自、保险公司、主权财产基金或其他机构的交易员都会关注贝莱德提供的分析模型,进而指导自己的投资。Aladdins geniusAladdin的高明之处That is a tribute to BlackRocks elaborate risk-management models, but it is also discomfiting.上述成就皆源于贝莱德精心设计风险管理模式的馈赠,但问题也随之而来。A principle of healthy markets is that a cacophony of diverse actors come to different conclusions on the price of things, based on their own idiosyncratic analyses.健康市场的一大原则便是不同的参与者会就价格得出不同的结论,任何资产的价值都是不同意见相互妥协而得出最终价格。The value of any asset is discovered by melding all these different opinions into a single price.不论是从政治角度、还是自然角度、亦或是市场角度来讲,一个有单一思维主宰的生态系统是不健康的。An ecosystem which is dominated by a single line of thinking is not healthy, in politics, in nature or in markets. Such groupthink in finance is a recipe for booms.在金融领域,集思广益是市场繁荣、或是萧条的秘诀。Though Aladdin advises clients on investment decisions rather than making them, it inevitably frames how they think of market risk.Aladdin交易网络向客户提供投资决策的建议,而非强迫客户投资,这必然会让客户对市场风险的分析陷入思维定势。The last crisis had many causes.导致2008年金融危机的原因有很多,One of them, which perhaps lay behind all the others, was that investors stopped thinking critically about what they were buying.其根本原因或许是投资者缺乏批判思维,只知道一味的投资却不思考。Too many decided to trust credit-rating agencies, which assured them, for example, that packages of American subprime mortgages were extremely unlikely to default.太多投资者选择了相信信用评级机构,比如,这些机构向他们保美国次级房贷是最不可能违约的贷款项目。BlackRocks models are no doubt better than the clunkers put out by Moodys or Standard amp; Poors up to 2008:毫无疑问,贝莱德模式要比穆迪、标普在2008年前发布的信用评级信息准确的多:the firms relative recent success has proved that.近期贝莱德的成功便是明。But too many investors relying on a single model sps an unhealthy orthodoxy and is likely to make the markets more volatile than they otherwise would be.但是,过多投资者依赖单一模式会造成一个恶性的正统体系,而这很可能会让市场比起多种模式时更加脆弱。That is probably not a serious systemic risk, for it will be self-limiting: the more money follows BlackRock, the more money there is to be made betting against it.或许,这并不是什么严重的系统风险,因为市场会发挥其自身调节作用:贝莱德监管的资金越多,便会有更多资金。The real danger is for investors.真正危险的是投资者,The more they rely on BlackRocks analysis, the smaller the upside when it gets things right and the greater the downside when it gets things wrong—as, one day, it eventually will.他们越是依赖贝莱德的风险分析,当分析结果正确的时候,股价上扬时利润越小,而当分析错误的时候,股价下跌时赔的越多。终有一天,上述情景便会成为现实。Until then BlackRocks single-minded focus on mastering risk is to be commended.到那时,贝莱德一心致力于风险控制的做法将会受到表彰。If its peers in the financial world had taken the same approach in the run-up to 2008, much of the chaos of the past five years would have been averted.如果金融界的同仁在08年金融危机初始阶段采取了同样的措施,过去五年的混乱局面本可规避。 201401/271826

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