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2019年09月17日 21:13:08|来源:国际在线|编辑:安心晚报
Rents in Hong Kong, home to some of the world’s most expensive shopping streets, are forecast to fall by up to 20 per cent this year as luxury retailers suffer because of the corruption crackdown and economic slowdown in mainland China.预计今年香港门店租金将最多下跌20%,原因是中国内地的反腐运动和经济放缓令奢侈品零售商受到冲击。全球最昂贵的一些购物街位于香港。Surging Chinese demand for jewellery, watches and designer goods sent rents in Hong Kong’s most famous shopping streets rocketing in recent years, overtaking New York’s Fifth Avenue, Paris’s Champs-#201;lysées and London’s Bond Street.最近几年,中国对珠宝、手表以及设计师产品的需求飙升,推动香港最知名购物街的门店租金直线上涨,超过了纽约第五大道(Fifth Avenue)、巴黎香榭丽舍大街(Champs-#201;lysées)和伦敦邦德街(Bond Street)。But as lower Chinese spending started to hit rents, Hong Kong’s Causeway Bay lost its crown as the world’s most expensive retail district to Fifth Avenue at the end of last year, according to Cushman amp; Wakefield, a property agency.但房地产经纪商高纬环球(Cushman amp; Wakefield)的数据显示,随着中国内地游客削减出的行为开始冲击到门店租金,去年年底,香港铜锣湾将全球最昂贵零售街区的桂冠拱手让与纽约第五大道。Now investment bank Credit Suisse and estate agent Savills expect rents to fall by 20 per cent this year, while JLL, another property company, expects a 10-15 per cent drop.如今,投行瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)和房地产经纪商第一太平戴维斯(Savills)预测,今年香港的门店租金将下跌20%,另一家房地产务公司仲量联行(JLL)预计,租金将下跌10%至15%。“Because of the anti-graft drive in China there are fewer people buying gifts and less show of wealth, at the same time as there’s been a slowdown in the Chinese economy,” said Nick Bradstreet, head of leasing for Savills in Hong Kong. “It’s also become cheaper to buy luxury goods in South Korea, Japan or Europe because of the exchange rate.”“由于中国的反腐运动,购买礼品的人和炫富现象都有所减少,另外中国内地的经济也一直在放缓。”第一太平戴维斯驻香港的租赁业务主管尼克#8226;布拉德斯特里特(Nick Bradstreet)表示,“还有,由于汇率因素,现在在韩国、日本或欧洲购买奢侈品要便宜一些。”Credit Suisse forecasts that retail sales in Hong Kong will fall by 5 per cent this year to HK9bn (.5bn), the biggest annual drop since 2000, with sales of jewellery, watches and luxury goods sliding by 12 per cent.瑞信预测,香港零售额今年将下滑5%,至4690亿港元(合605亿美元),为2000年以来的最大年度降幅。珠宝、手表和奢侈品销售额将下滑12%。In addition to the anti-corruption push and slower economic growth, Chinese tourists have also been deterred because of growing protests against their presence by Hong Kong residents frustrated at the jump in visitor numbers.除了反腐运动和经济增长放缓,中国内地游客还因一些香港居民日益反对他们出现在香港而取消了赴港计划。之前中国内地赴港游客人数激增令这些香港居民感到不满。The number of mainlanders visiting Hong Kong, which is governed semi-independently under the “one country, two systems” arrangement, fell by 10 per cent year-on-year in March, according to the Hong Kong Tourism Board.根据香港旅游发展局(Hong Kong Tourism Board)的数据,今年3月,赴港内地游客人数同比减少10%。香港依照“一国两制”拥有高度的自治权。Joyce Kwock, a property analyst at Credit Suisse, believes falling currencies in Japan, South Korea and the eurozone have accelerated the move away from Hong Kong as more adventurous Chinese tourists fly further afield in search of discounts.瑞信房地产分析师Joyce Kwock认为,日本、韩国以及欧元区汇率的下跌加快了中国内地游客远离香港的速度,越来越多喜欢探索的中国内地游客飞到更遥远的地方寻找打折商品。“Hong Kong street-store rents have been boosted to such a high base in the last few years so they are very vulnerable to a downturn,” she said.她表示:“过去几年,香港购物街门店租金被推升到一个很高的水平,因此很难抵御不景气的冲击。”Analysts believe individual landlords will bear the brunt of the slowdown, while high-end shopping malls have a better chance of sustaining rents because they offer a more varied shopping environment and help retailers with marketing.分析师认为,受冲击最大的将是个人房东,而高端购物商场有更大可能维持租金水平,因为它们可提供更加多样的购物环境并帮助零售商营销。While some landlords and luxury brands including Burberry suffer, cheaper retailers like Zara and Mango could benefit from the opportunity to open in high-profile streets at lower rents.一些房东以及包括柏利(Burberry)在内的奢侈品品牌将受到冲击,但Zara和芒果(Mango)等较低端零售商可能会成为受益者,因为门店租金的降低为它们在知名购物街开店提供了机会。“Fast fashion and affordable cosmetics brands should be able to find good locations that they couldn’t get three years ago,” said Tom Gaffney, head of retail at JLL. “We will see a change in the look of the shopping streets in Hong Kong and that is good for the retail sector because now it’s boring, with so many watch and jewellery stores.”“快速时尚以及平价化妆品品牌应该能够拿到3年前无力负担的好地段。”仲量联行零售业主管汤姆#8226;加夫尼(Tom Gaffney)表示,“我们会看到香港购物街的格局发生变化,这对于零售业是件好事,因为该行业现在有些无趣,手表店和珠宝店太多。” /201505/377691In Confucian philosophy it is taken for granted that children will look after their parents. In 21st-century China, things are proving to be very different. With most adults working full time, plus the demographic issues resulting from the one-child policy, the country presents a fascinating case for those interested in the social and economic challenges of ageing populations, not to mention the business opportunities.按照儒学观点,子女照顾年老父母是天经地义的。但在21世纪的中国,情况已经变得大为不同。由于大多数成年人都有全职工作,加上独生子女政策引发的人口问题,中国不仅给研究人口老龄化所引发社会与经济挑战的人提供了一个极有吸引力的例子,而且因为老龄化而蕴含着巨大商机。For just this reason Florian Kohlbacher moved to China in August after 11 years studying demographic change in Japan — almost 50 per cent of the population of Japan is aged 50 or older.正因如此,弗洛里安#8226;科尔巴赫(Florian Kohlbacher,见上图)去年8月来到了中国。此前,他花了11年研究日本人口变化——该国50岁以上人口已经占到总人口的近50%。Now he is associate professor of marketing and innovation at the International Business School Suzhou, part of Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, where he will head up the Research Institute on Ageing and Society.科尔巴赫现为苏州西交利物浦大学国际商学院的营销与创新学副教授,并将领导老龄化与社会研究所(Research Institute on Ageing and Society)。The business school will take the lead in the institute to focus on the business implications of population ageing, though at least 10 other departments, including public health, architecture and industrial design, will be involved,该商学院将牵头组建该研究所,重点研究人口老龄化蕴含的商业意义,而包括公共卫生、建筑和工业设计在内的至少10个其他院系也将参与研究。Nationwide problems全国性问题With a population of 1.4bn, part of the issue in China is its scale, says Prof Kohlbacher, although the one-child policy has exaggerated the demographic trend. On top of this is China’s economic status. Japan was rich before the rise in its ageing population; China is not there yet. “The whole social system is not y for this,” warns Prof Kohlbacher.科尔巴赫表示,由于拥有14亿人口,中国的部分问题与其规模有关,但独生子女政策又放大了这种人口老龄化趋势。还有一个问题是中国的经济状况。日本在出现人口老龄化问题之前已经是个富国,而中国目前还不是富国。“整个社会体系并未准备好迎接人口老龄化,”科尔巴赫教授警告称。A Chinese government report published in September pointed out that 8 per cent of China’s consumption related to products and services for older people, a market worth Rmb4tn.去年9月中国政府公布的一份报告指出,与老年人相关的商品和务占中国国内生产总值(GDP)的8%,老年市场潜力达4万亿人民币。By 2050, according to the report, that proportion of gross domestic product will rise to a third.该报告预测,到2050年,老年人消费占GDP的比例将提高至三分之一。“This is a real business opportunity,” says Prof Kohlbacher. “Though 2050 might be far away, this is something to work on immediately. But companies are not putting much thought into it.”“这是一个实实在在的商机,”科尔巴赫教授说,“虽然2050年还很遥远,但现在就要采取行动,而企业界对此并未予以太多关注。”It is an attitude he finds hard to fathom. “Managers have problems converting these trends into specific applications. Management is about uncertainty, but demographics is one area where forecasting actually works.”他觉得这种态度令人费解。“企业管理者在具体利用这些趋势方面存在问题。管理必然面对不确定性,但在人口问题上,预测确实有用。”Impact on business对商业的影响First there is the ageing workforce. In China women usually retire at 55 and men at 60, so companies are losing people with tremendous experience and knowledge.首先是存在老年劳动力。在中国,女性一般55岁退休,男性60岁退休,因此企业正在流失具有丰富经验和知识的人才。Second, life expectancy in China is now 76, which means a healthy old age is increasingly achievable, which could lead to a tremendous demand for products and services for the “silver-hair market” as it is known in China, either through the adaptation of existing products or the development of new ones.其次,中国目前的预期寿命是76岁,这意味着健康的晚年可期,将导致对“银发市场”商品与务的巨大需求,企业可以通过对现有产品进行改造和开发新产品,满足这种需求。The travel industry is a prime example, says Prof Kohlbacher. “It was something they [older people] couldn’t do in their youth because China was cut off.”科尔巴赫教授说,旅游业就是一大例子。“由于中国以前比较闭塞,他们(老年人)年轻时无法旅游。”Need for innovation创新需求Pharmaceuticals is another obvious market, as are care homes and nursing services. And in the west premium cars are popular with older people, says Prof Kohlbacher. What is more, in China, older people have money to spend. Traditionally they passed on wealth to their children and grandchildren, but the one-child policy has changed this and they are now thinking more about themselves.制药业是另一个显而易见的市场,还有养老院和护理机构。科尔巴赫教授说,在西方,高端护理在老年人当中很受欢迎。此外,中国老年人手头有钱。传统上,他们会把财富留给子女和孙辈,但独生子女政策改变了这种情况,他们现在会更多为自己着想。“This means things are special in China. It can aly serve as a laboratory for us to study an ageing society,” he says. He believes this research will become more significant in future. “A lot of things here have to be built from scratch, so it is a new approach.”他说:“这表明中国有着特殊的情况。中国已经可以成为我们研究老龄化社会的一个实验室。”他认为,这种研究在今后会变得更加有意义。“中国的许多东西都要从零开始,因此这是一条新的道路。”Alternative research其他研究项目In the US, Boston College has an institute for ageing and work, while MIT Sloan has its AgeLab focusing on the labour market. But given the scale of the problem, rues Prof Kohlbacher, the levels of research are woeful.在美国,波士顿学院(Boston College)设有一个老龄化与工作研究所,麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院(MIT Sloan)设有专门研究劳动力市场的老龄实验室(AgeLab)。但科尔巴赫教授遗憾地表示,由于老龄化问题已经相当严峻,当前的研究水平还很低。 /201504/369401

With growth slowing, and foreign manufacturers gaining share, many of China#39;s auto industry players could face extinction. 随着增长放缓以及外国生产商市场份额扩大,许多中国本土汽车厂商可能面临绝境。Some Chinese car makers are looking to the Beijing auto show, which opens to the media Sunday, as a chance to fight back by forging stronger bonds with Chinese car buyers through branding or woo them with popular products. 一些中国汽车厂商将北京车展视为反击的机会,试图利用品牌或高人气产品与中国购车者建立更紧密的联系。北京车展周日向媒体开放。Zhejiang Geely Holding Group said Friday it was scrapping its three separate brands--Emgrand, Gleagle and Englon--in favor of a single Geely brand. Chairman Li Shufu said multibrand strategy had stretched Geely beyond its capabilities by forcing it to develop vehicles in three different categories. 浙江吉利控股集团(Zhejiang Geely Holding Group)周五说,将撤销三个单独的品牌帝豪(Emgrand)、全球鹰(Gleagle)和英伦(Englon),采用统一的吉利品牌。吉利董事长李书福说,多品牌战略迫使吉利开发三个不同类别的车辆,超出了吉利的能力范围。SAIC Motor Corp.#39;s MG brand, Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Co., or JAC, and Chongqing Lifan Industry Group Co. will each release a compact sport-utility vehicle, which is increasingly popular in China. Great Wall Motor Co. will launch its H8 SUV, which had been delayed over quality concerns. 上海汽车集团股份有限公司(SAIC Motor Co., 简称:上汽集团)旗下MG品牌、安徽江淮汽车股份有限公司(Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Co.,简称: 江淮汽车)和重庆力帆实业(集团)有限公司(Chongqing Lifan Industry (Group) Co.)将分别发布一款紧凑运动型多用途车(SUV),这种车在中国越来越受欢迎。长城汽车股份有限公司(Great Wall Motor Co. 简称:长城汽车)将发布H8 SUV,这款车之前因质量问题被推迟发布。These companies are hoping to persuade car buyers such as Ying Guohua, a 49-year-old self-employed Beijing resident, to remain loyal to Chinese brands. Mr. Ying used to drive a Zhonghua, a brand once owned by BMW#39;s China partner Brilliance China, that cost him around 180,000 yuan, or ,200. #39;It wasn#39;t really what I expected,#39; he said. #39;Overall, it was aesthetically appealing, but it just didn#39;t feel sturdy when I drove it.#39; He upgraded to a 450,000 yuan Audi. #39;It was exactly the type of car I wanted because it#39;s German...It feels powerful to drive and it#39;s sturdy.#39; 这些公司希望说像应国华(音)这样的购车者继续忠于中国品牌。49岁的应国华是北京人,从事个体经营。应国华以前开一辆花了约人民币18万元(合29,200美元)购买的中华汽车(Zhonghua),这个品牌曾经归宝马(BMW)的中国合作伙伴华晨中国(Brilliance China)所有。他说,那辆车没有真正符合他的期望,车子总的来说很漂亮,但开起来感觉不够皮实。他换了一辆人民币45万元的奥迪(Audi)。他表示,那才是他想要的那种车,因为它是德国牌子。他说,奥迪车开起来动力强劲,而且很皮实。Chinese brands are struggling to win Chinese consumers, a trend that appears to have accelerated in the first quarter. Geely#39;s Hong Kong-listed unit reported sales of 89,607 vehicles, down about 37%. Warren Buffett-backed BYD Co. sold 103,500 cars in China in the first quarter, a drop of about 28% from the same period the previous year. Chery Automobile Co. reported a 25% fall to 109,000 vehicles. 中国品牌难以赢得中国消费者的芳心,这个趋势似乎在第一季度有所加快。吉利在香港上市的子公司宣布一季度销量为89,607辆,下滑约37%。巴菲特(Warren Buffett)投资的比亚迪(BYD Co.)一季度在中国销量为103,500辆,同比下降约28%。奇瑞汽车有限公司(Chery Automobile Co.)宣布一季度销量下滑25%,至109,000辆。Chinese brands including minivans held nearly 39% of the market in the first three months of the year, compared with 43% in the year-earlier period, according to the government-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. 中国汽车工业协会发布的数据显示,今年第一季度,包括微型客车在内的中国自主品牌汽车的市场份额下滑至接近39%,低于上年同期的43%。By contrast, many foreign auto makers are posting solid Chinese gains. Ford Motor Co. sold 271,321 cars here in the first quarter, up 45%. 相形之下,许多外国汽车厂商的在华销量强劲上扬。福特汽车(Ford Motor Co.)一季度在华销量增长45%,达到271,321辆。Poor quality, uninspiring marketing and an inefficient industry structure lie at the heart of Chinese auto makers#39; woes. Compounding these problems, foreign car makers and their Chinese joint-venture partners are increasingly looking to produce low-cost cars as they anticipate a boom in demand as hundreds of millions of rural Chinese move to cities to seek jobs, housing and cars. 质量差、营销弱、行业结构缺乏效率是中国自主品牌汽车陷入困境的根源。令形势更加严峻的是,外国汽车厂商和它们的中方合资伙伴已经开始着眼于生产低价车,因为它们预计随着上亿中国农村人口进入城市寻找工作、购买住房和汽车,低价车的需求将迅速上升。The Chinese government also requires foreign auto makers to work with their local partners to develop low-price brands for China. Nissan Motors and partner Dongfeng sold 10,487 of their joint brand Venucia in the first three months of this year--just slightly less than sales of Nissan#39;s popular Qashqai SUV. This translates to added competition for Chinese car companies, especially those that don#39;t have a foreign partner. 中国政府也要求外资汽车厂商与中国合作伙伴共同开发适合中国市场的低端品牌。日产汽车(Nissan Motors)和中国东风汽车公司(Dongfeng)的合资品牌启辰(Venucia)一季度的销量达到10,487辆,只略低于日产汽车人气SUV逍客(Qashqai)的销量。这意味着中国本土汽车公司将面临更大的竞争压力,尤其是那些没有与外资合作的本土公司。#39;Chinese brands are still very weak and I have no idea how long that will continue,#39; said Dong Yang, executive vice chairman and secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. 中国汽车工业协会常务副会长董扬说,中国自主汽车品牌依然十分弱小,这样的局面不知道要多久才会改变。In China, between 60% and 70% of car purchases are made by first-time buyers, according to Paul Gao, head of consulting firm McKinsey amp; Co.#39;s automotive team in Asia. He said that with greater experience, car buyers pay more attention to the overall cost of owning a car, examining factors such as fuel efficiency and maintenance costs--areas where foreign brands excel. 咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey amp; Co.)的亚洲汽车行业团队负责人高旭(Paul Gao)认为,中国60%至70%的购车者是首次购车。他说,有了更多的经验之后,购车者会更加关注拥有汽车的整体成本,考察诸如燃油效率和维护成本之类的因素,而这正是外国品牌占优势的地方。Dongfeng Motor Group Co. Chairman Xi Ping said last month that while great progress had been made by Chinese auto brands, they still weren#39;t as strong as those from other countries. #39;I am convinced China will surely...produce a strong auto brand,#39; he said. 东风汽车董事长徐平上个月说,虽然中国汽车品牌取得了很大的进步,但实力仍然不及其他国家的品牌。他说,他相信中国肯定会打造出强大的汽车品牌。There is some indication that Chinese car makers are building better cars. Last year marked the first time four Chinese brands ranked above industry average in J.D. Power#39;s study of more than 27 best brands in China in terms of initial quality, something Geoff Broderick, vice president at the company#39;s Shanghai office, described as a #39;breakthrough.#39; 有一些迹象表明中国汽车厂商正在制造更好的汽车。去年J.D. Power对逾27个中国最好的汽车品牌进行了研究,其中四个品牌的新车质量首次高于行业平均水平。J.D. Power上海办事处的副总裁布罗德里克(Geoff Broderick)说,这样的情况是一种突破。#39;Quality is improving, but the customer doesn#39;t perceive that,#39; Mr. Broderick said. #39;Chinese love brands and the perception among Chinese consumers is that if you have the wherewithal you#39;ll buy a foreign brand.#39; 布罗德里克说,中国品牌的质量在改善,但消费者还没有感受到。他说,中国人喜欢品牌,中国消费者的看法是,如果你有钱,就要买外国品牌。Libra Hu, a 23-year-old technology company employee in Beijing, drives a 600,000 yuan Audi--a wedding gift from her and her husband#39;s parents. #39;The whole car was produced and imported from Germany. We trust its quality and [Audi#39;s] service.#39; 在北京的23岁科技公司员工Libra Hu开的是一辆人民币60万元的奥迪车,这是她父母和公公婆婆送给她的结婚礼物。她说,这辆车是德国产、从德国进口的,她全家都信任奥迪的质量和务。In China, a hodgepodge of companies--state and privately owned Chinese companies and their foreign joint-venture partners--vie for car buyers#39; attention. China has roughly twice the number of brands and models that the U.S. has, according J.D. Power#39;s Mr. Broderick. He#39;s forecasting a capacity utilization rate of around 44% for Chinese car manufacturers this year--around half the levels seen at the factories of global players in China. 在中国,众多公司(包括国有和民营中资公司以及它们与外国的合资公司)争相吸引购车者的注意。J.D. Power的布罗德里克说,中国的品牌和车型数量差不多是美国的两倍。他预计中国汽车厂商今年的产能利用率在44%左右,大约是在华外国品牌工厂产能利用率的一半。Talk of consolidation is common. 有关行业整合的言论十分普遍。Ford Chief Executive Alan Mulally said in an interview in Beijing he expects larger Chinese companies with Western partners will buy out weaker, small players. #39;The economics will take over,#39; Mr. Mulally said. #39;If you don#39;t have scale, you just won#39;t be able to be competitive.#39; 福特首席执行长穆拉利(Alan Mulally)在北京接受采访时说,他预计规模更大、与西方企业合作的中国公司将会收购较为弱小的公司。穆拉利说,经济因素将会占据主导,如果没有足够的规模,就无法与他人竞争。Yet Geely#39;s Mr. Li said he has his hands full running his own car company and has no plans to drive a consolidation wave. 但吉利的李书福说,他运营自己的汽车公司就已经忙得不可开交,并无推动整合浪潮的计划。Some are investing in foreign names abroad for brand cachet and know-how. In March, Dongfeng purchased a stake in France#39;s PSA Citro#235;n. Beijing Automotive Industry Holdings Co. has also said it is actively scouting acquisition prospects in Europe and the U.S. 一些中资厂商投资外国品牌,以此获得品牌效应和专有技术。今年3月,东风汽车收购了法国汽车生产商标致雪铁龙(PSA Peugeot Citroen)的部分股份。北京汽车工业控股有限责任公司(Beijing Automotive Industry Holdings Co.,简称:北汽控股)也说,正在积极考察在欧洲和美国的并购前景。At home, some industry players have begun to collaborate. Guangzhou Automobile Group Co. and Chery formed an alliance in 2012 to cooperate on issues including research, the development of energy-efficient #39;green cars#39; and auto-parts production. SAIC Motor is taking advantage of its partnership with GM to build its sedan Roewe 950 on the Buick platform. Geely is working with Volvo, the Swedish brand it acquired in 2010, to develop new vehicles. #39;There will be more and more of that going forward, #39; said Mr. Gao of McKinsey. 在国内,一些汽车厂商已经开始合作。2012年广州汽车集团股份有限公司(Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.)和奇瑞联手,在研发节能“绿色汽车”和汽车零部件生产等方面展开合作。上汽集团利用与通用汽车(GM)的合作关系,基于别克(Buick)平台打造其荣威(Roewe) 950轿车。吉利正与其2010年收购的瑞典品牌沃尔沃(Volvo)合作开发新车型。麦肯锡的高旭说,这种情况将会越来越多。 /201404/289535

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