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2019年08月24日 08:50:52|来源:国际在线|编辑:管常识
With Asia-Pacific leaders gathering for a summit meeting in Beijing, forecasts that smog would envelop the capital this weekend were bad news not just for China’s leaders, who hoped to present the city in its best light for the occasion, but for officials charged with ensuring clean air.预报称,北京周末会被雾霾笼罩。由于亚太地区领导人将相聚北京参加峰会,这对于希望借此机会展现北京最佳形象的中国领导人,以及负责确保空气清洁的官员来说,都是一个坏消息。On Friday, The Economic Daily reported that 24 officials in Shijiazhuang, the capital of Hebei Province, which encircles Beijing, would be disciplined for their failure to control air pollution levels, and that five leaders of the most-polluting companies in the city would face administrative detention and fines.周五,《经济日报》报道称,在北京周边的河北省省会石家庄,24名官员将因控污工作不力遭受处分,五家污染最为严重的企业的负责人将被行政拘留,并处以罚款。Inspection tours, which were carried out on Wednesday by the Ministry of Environmental Protection in Beijing and surrounding regions to check air quality, identified dozens of workplaces in Shijiazhuang in violation of pollution control regulations. The inspection teams found that 33 enterprises in Shijiazhuang had not halted or cut back on production as directed, and that work had continued as usual at 18 construction sites. In addition, the inspectors reported that road dust in the city exceeded acceptable levels, and that the burning of trash and straw was rampant.周三,环保部派出督查组在北京及其周边地区检查空气质量,确认石家庄的几十个工作场所违背了污染控制规定。督查组发现,石家庄的33家企业未按要求进行停产、限产,18个施工场地未按要求停止施工。除此之外,督查人员报告称,石家庄市的道路扬尘超过可接受水平,秸秆垃圾焚烧问题严重。In October, in preparation for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Beijing, the government said it would enact stringent air pollution controls in a 200-kilometer, or 124-mile, radius of the capital, reducing traffic and industrial production from Nov. 1 to 12. Shijiazhuang, which is reported to have some of the worst air pollution in China, received special attention.今年10月,为了准备北京亚太经合组织会议,中国政府称他们将在北京周边200公里(约合124英里)的范围内实施严格的空气污染控制规定,在11月1日至12日期间减少车流量与工业生产。石家庄受到特别关注,该市据称是中国污染最为严重的城市之一。On Thursday, after the China Meteorological Administration forecast that Beijing would experience smog into Tuesday, the government extended the emergency pollution reduction measures even farther south to include Jinan, the capital of Shandong Province.上周四,在中国气象局预报称北京的雾霾天将持续至周二之后,政府将紧急减霾举措的实施范围扩展至包括山东省省会济南市在内的南部地区。In Beijing, state news media reported that the huge number of fireworks that were set off on Tuesday evening in a rehearsal for the planned Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation display might have contributed to an increase in pollution levels.官方媒体报道称,北京市于上周二晚间燃放了大量烟花,为亚太经合组织会议期间的表演活动排,这可能在一定程度上导致污染水平上升。Meanwhile, the Ministry of Environmental Protection designated Henan Province as its next target for closer supervision, after summoning the mayor of Anyang, Ma Linqing, to Beijing to discuss his city’s failures in carrying out pollution regulations.与此同时,环保部将河南省定为下一个进行严密监督的目标。环保部在此之前将安阳市市长马林青召至北京,讨论安阳市在实施污染防治规定方面出现的问题。Henan, the province south of Hebei, is a center for copper-smelting, iron and steel mills, and coking plants. According to the ministry, despite the emergency antipollution measures ordered for this week, some heavily polluting enterprises either continued production as usual or discharged pollutants at night in an effort to hide them.位于河北南部的河南省是炼铜厂、炼钢厂及焦化厂的聚集地。环保部表示,尽管政府下令在本周实施污染防治举措,一些污染严重的企业要么像往常一样继续生产,要么在夜间排放污染物,进行遮掩。 /201411/341772

When hundreds of Californians invaded the state capitol last week to demand the right not to vaccinate their kids, they were playing out a very modern conflict: science versus belief systems. Scientists tell parents that vaccinations are safe. But many parents prefer to trust their gut instinct that they’re not safe. This dialogue of the deaf is becoming the norm. Increasingly, people make their own decisions on health and diet, instead of outsourcing them to scientists, doctors or governments.不久前,数百名美国加州人闯入州议会大厦,要求拥有不让自己的孩子接种疫苗的权利,他们演绎了一场极为现代的冲突——科学vs观念体系。科学家告诉家长接种疫苗是安全的,但许多家长宁愿相信自己的直觉——接种疫苗不安全。这种鸡同鸭讲式的对话已成常态。人们在健康和饮食方面越来越自作主张,而不是相信科学家、医生或政府。If you want to change people’s behaviour, don’t recite science at them, says Alan Dangour, nutritionist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). Rather, to nudge people to better decisions, we need to understand how they decide. Behavioural economics has identified cognitive biases that influence our decisions about money. Here are some biases and misjudgments that shape decisions on health and diet:伦敦卫生暨热带医学院(London School of Hygiene amp; Tropical Medicine)营养学家阿伦#8226;丹古尔(Alan Dangour)表示,如果你想改变人们的行为,不要跟他们大讲科学道理。相反,想劝人们作出更好的决定,我们需要去了解他们是怎么做决定的。行为经济学已发现多种影响人类消费决定的认知偏见。以下是一些影响人们决定健康和饮食方式的偏见和错误观念:“‘Natural’ is good.”“‘天然的’就是好的”When faced with complex problems, people often resort to a heuristic: a pragmatic, simplified mental shortcut. A common shortcut is to use labels such as “natural”, “organic”, “local” or “homeopathic” as proxies for healthy. Conversely, “artificial” gets equated with unhealthy. This heuristic appeals partly because it relies on words. Not everyone understands science but we all know language.当面对复杂问题时,人们往往会采用启发法(heuristic),这是一种务实、简单化的心理捷径(mental shortcut)。常见的捷径之一是使用“天然”、“有机”、“本地”或“顺势疗法”等标签代表健康。反之,“人造的”就等同于不健康的。这种启发法之所以具有吸引力,部分在于它依靠文字。不是人人都懂科学,但所有人都懂语言。Sometimes, natural actually is good. The World Health Organisation announced last month that the world’s most common weedkiller, glyphosate, can probably cause cancer. But often natural isn’t good. For instance, homeopathy is ineffective for treating any medical condition, concluded Australia’s National Health and Medical Research Council last month, echoing a report for Britain’s House of Commons in 2010.有时天然的确是好的。世界卫生组织(WHO)在今年3月宣布,全球最常见的除草剂草甘膦可能会致癌。但多数情况下,天然的并不好。比如,澳大利亚国家健康与医学研究理事会(National Health and Medical Research Council)也在今年3月发表了一个结论,顺势疗法对治疗任何疾病都毫无疗效,附和了2010年提交到英国下议院的一份报告的结论。Likewise, “natural” organic foods aren’t more nutritious than other foods, said researchers from the LSHTM, after reviewing 50 years of studies. A Stanford analysis of 237 studies concurred.此外,伦敦卫生暨热带医学院的研究人员回顾了50年来的研究成果之后,表示“天然”有机食品并不比其他食物更有营养。斯坦福大学(Stanford)从237项研究中也得出了同样结论。“All ‘scientific’ studies are equal.”“所有‘科学的’研究都是平等的”In fact, as Eula Biss explains in her book On Immunity, any single study in medicine is meaningless. To e medical researcher John Ioannidis: “Most published research findings are false.” A single study might have been small, poorly conducted or produce findings that are due simply to chance. “What matters,” says Ioannidis, “is the totality of evidence.” That’s why the gold standard of medical research is the meta-study, such as the ones cited above on organic food, which aggregate previous research on a topic. Nonetheless anti-vaccinators still cite one now-retracted study of 12 children, published by Andrew Wakefield and others in 1998, which suggested that vaccinating children might cause autism.事实上,正如尤拉#8226;比斯(Eula Biss)在其著作《免疫》(On Immunity)中所述,医学上的任何单一研究都毫无意义。引用医学研究人员约翰#8226;约安尼季斯(John Ioannidis)的一句话:“大多数业已发表的研究成果都是虚假的。”单一研究有可能规模很小,操作不当,或者仅仅是偶然状况下得出的结果。约安尼季斯说:“重要的是所有据的总和。”这就是为什么医学研究的黄金标准是元研究,它集合了关于某一课题的以往研究,比如前文中提到的关于有机食品的研究。尽管如此,反疫苗者仍引用一份已经撤销的关于12名儿童案例的研究报告,该研究由安德鲁#8226;韦克菲尔德(Andrew Wakefield)与其他研究人员在1998年发布,他们认为儿童接种疫苗可能引起自闭症。People seize on single studies because we are bad at weighing quantities. We struggle to distinguish between “a little” and “lots”. That’s also why people panic when “traces” of “toxins” show up in a product — traces of mercury in vaccines, for instance. But quantity is crucial. Biss es a toxicologists’ adage: “The dose makes the poison.”人们之所以会抓住一项研究不撒手,是因为我们非常不善于权衡数量。我们很难区分出“少量”与“大量”之间的差别。这也是为什么当某一产品显现出“有毒迹象”时人们会恐慌,比如当疫苗中含有汞成分时。但分量才是关键因素。比斯引用了一句毒理学格言:“只要剂量足,万物皆有毒。”(The dose makes the poison)“Self-denial is good for you.”“弃绝自我是有益的”This religious notion survives in today’s “detox diets”, which often entail forswearing everything except selected “natural” products such as juices. In fact, “sinful” things such as wine, chocolate and coffee (a rare legal, mind-altering, performance-enhancing drug) are healthy in small quantities.这种宗教观念在如今的“节食排毒”(detox diets)饮食理念中得到延续。该饮食方式通常需要戒绝一切食物,只食用果汁之类的选定的“天然”产品。事实上,少量食用“罪恶的”食物对健康有利,比如葡萄酒、巧克力和咖啡(咖啡是一种少有的合法、会改变精神、提高效率的药品)。Confirmation bias确认偏见Our main source of information on health today is Google. However, you can find anything online, and most people gravitate to websites that confirm their beliefs.我们今天关于健康的信息主要来自谷歌(Google)。但是网上可以找到各种各样的说法,而且绝大多数人倾向于那些能明他们观念的网站。Ambiguity aversion模糊厌恶People like certainty. In health, that’s rarely available. Authorities sometimes change their minds: for instance, the US government is expected to announce soon that high-cholesterol foods are OK after all.人们喜欢确定性,但在健康方面确定性很难得到。相关部门不时会改变观点,比如美国政府预计很快将宣布,高胆固醇食物是没有问题的。Instead of seeking certainty, we should make decisions on the balance of probability: vaccinating your kids is very probably smart. But probability feels too ambiguous to be reassuring.在健康问题上,我们不该去追求确定性,而是应该基于概然性来做出决定:给你的孩子接种疫苗非常可能是个明智的决定。但可能性听起来太模棱两可,无法让人放心。Rare, spectacular kinds of death grip our imaginations.我们的想象里充斥着各种稀奇的、耸人听闻的死法People fret about terrorists, sharks, Ebola and plane crashes because of the availability heuristic. The more available a piece of information is to the memory — a terrorist attack, say — the more likely it is to influence our decisions. In fact, terrorism kills fewer people than sitting at a desk.人们担心恐怖分子、鲨鱼、埃拉(Ebola)和飞机失事是因为它们具有“可得性启发”(availability heuristic)。一条信息——比如恐怖袭击——对记忆的启发越多,对我们做决定的影响很可能就越大。事实上,死于恐怖主义的人远远少于死在办公桌前的人。Optimism bias乐观倾向Smokers know that smoking is addictive and lethal. But they tend to believe it will only enslave and kill other smokers, says Jody Sindelar, professor at the Yale School of Public Health. In general, people downplay their unhealthy habits, preferring instead to blame disease on factors beyond their control: their genes or environmental factors such as mobile phones or radiation. You can see why.耶鲁大学(Yale)公共卫生学院(School of Public Health)的乔迪#8226;辛德拉尔教授(Jody Sindelar)表示,吸烟者知道吸烟会上瘾,还会致命,可他们往往相信香烟只会征和杀死其他吸烟者。一般来说,人们会低估自己的不良习惯的影响,而偏向将病因归结于那些他们无法控制的因素,比如基因或手机、辐射等环境因素。个中原因可想而知。Present bias重视眼前的倾向We value the present above the future. The best time to quit smoking is therefore always tomorrow, says Sindelar.辛德拉尔说,比起未来,我们更看重眼前,所以戒烟的最佳时机永远是明天。Scientists and governments need to change tack. Instead of bombarding people with science, they should design policies that use our cognitive biases. One obvious technique is advertising. A gorgeous ad showing a mother cuddling a baby who is being vaccinated might be worth 10,000 scientific studies. Sindelar suggests other methods:科学家和政府需要改变策略。不应该用科学道理去轰炸民众,而是应该根据我们的认知偏差来设计政策。最易行的手法就是广告。比如拍摄一位母亲怀里抱着正在接种的小宝宝,这样一动人的广告或许比得上一万个科学研究。辛德拉尔还提出了其他方法: Reminders: on sunny days, send people messages suggesting they put on sunscreen.提醒:在阳光明媚的日子,给人们发消息建议他们涂上防晒霜。 Pre-commitments: encourage people to bet that they will lose specific amounts of weight.预承诺:鼓励人们打赌他们能够减掉多少体重。 Financial incentives: pay people to give up smoking.财务奖励:以奖金鼓励人们戒烟。These nudges could do more than scientific findings to change behaviour. In today’s low-trust world, science is in the doghouse with most other authorities.这些温和的规劝比科学发现更能改变人类行为。在如今这个低信任度的世界,科学与其他多数权威都已被打入冷宫。 /201505/374469

If all goes to plan in the coming months, Mike Froman, US trade representative, is set to land arguably the biggest prize in the country’s recent economic history.如果未来几个月一切按计划进行,美国贸易代表迈克#8226;弗罗曼(Mike Froman)即将收获该国近期经济史上可能最重要的奖品。The 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership, now nearing conclusion almost seven years after the US joined negotiations, is daunting in size and scope and dwarfs the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico that went into effect two decades ago.有12国参与的《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership,简称TPP)在美国加入谈判近7年后正接近达成,其规模和范围都很惊人,让20年前生效的美国与加拿大和墨西哥签订的《北美自由贸易协议》(North American Free Trade Agreement)相形见绌。Some 40 per cent of global output will be covered by the TPP, including two of the top three economies in the world (the US and Japan). It will significantly lower tariffs and other trade barriers around the Pacific Rim on everything from rice and steaks to cars and chemicals. It will contain enforceable standards on labour and the environment. It will set benchmarks by delineating rules for state-owned enterprises in the developing world and the digital economy. It will leave rivals in Beijing and Brussels salivating.TPP将涵盖全球约40%的产出,包括全球最大三个经济体中的两个(美国和日本)。它将大大降低环太平洋地区很多商品的关税和其他贸易壁垒,从大米、牛排到汽车和化学品。它将纳入劳动力和环境方面的强制性标准。它将设定基准,为发展中国家的国有企业和数字经济制定规则。它将让中国和欧盟的竞争对手羡慕不已。Yet the TPP is being derided by many inside President Barack Obama’s Democratic party and by the unions it has relied on for its base. At a time when Mr Obama is putting a new “middle-class economics” and the fight against inequality at the centre of his agenda, his push for new trade agreements causes many on his side of politics to squirm.然而,美国总统巴拉克#8226;奥巴马(Barack Obama)所在民主党内部的很多人,以及民主党所仰仗的工会,正嘲笑该协定。在奥巴马将新的“中产阶级经济学”以及反对不平等列为其执政议程核心之际,他对于新的贸易协定的推动,让他所在政治阵营的很多人不安。Such are the politics of trade in the US.这就是美国的贸易政治。The consensus among many Democrats with regard to trade agreements and globalisation is that they have not been kind to the middle class, having contributed to high-paying manufacturing jobs being shipped offshore and wages stagnating.在贸易协定和全球化问题上,很多民主党人的共识是,这些对中产阶层不利,导致高薪制造业工作被外包到海外,并使工资不再增长。Economists such as Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman have raised doubts about TPP. Even as she has made friendly noises on trade, Nancy Pelosi, the powerful Democratic leader in the House of Representatives, has been blunt about the administration’s challenge. “The burden is on [the White House] to demonstrate that this is good for American pay cheques,” she said last week.约瑟夫#8226;斯蒂格利茨(Joseph Stiglitz)和保罗#8226;克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)等经济学家一直对TPP提出质疑。美国众议院颇有影响力的民主党领袖南希#8226;佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)在贸易问题上的态度比较友好,但她还是坦率地谈到了奥巴马政府所面临的挑战。她上周表示:“(白宫的)任务是明,这对于美国人的薪资有利。”But, sitting before the brick hearth in his office, a spitting distance from the White House, Mr Froman is resolute.然而,在距离白宫仅一步之遥的地方,坐在办公室砖砌壁炉前的弗罗曼却态度坚决。“We’re doing this to protect American jobs and American workers,” he tells the Financial Times in an interview.他在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示:“我们这么做是为了保护美国的就业和劳动者。”The TPP is, he argues, a way to open up more markets for US goods and services in fast-growing Asia and to create high-paying jobs at home. It is also a way to level the playing field for American workers by including stronger labour and environmental standards that will be enforceable via trade sanctions. And, with Canada and Mexico included, to deliver on President Obama’s long-ago campaign promise to renegotiate Nafta, something the progressive wing of the Democratic party has long sought.他认为,TPP能够在增长迅速的亚洲为更多美国商品和务打开市场,并在国内创造高薪岗位。它还可以纳入能够通过贸易制裁强制执行的更严格的劳动力和环境标准,为美国劳动者创造公平竞争环境。加拿大和墨西哥的加入,将兑现奥巴马总统很久以前提出的就《北美自由贸易协议》重新谈判的竞选承诺,这是民主党进步派长期以来一直寻求的。“There are a lot of people who raise very legitimate concerns about the impact of globalisation on patterns of production, on jobs, on wages. But I think it’s also important not to conflate globalisation with trade agreements,” Mr Froman says.弗罗曼表示:“很多人就全球化对生产、就业和薪资模式的影响提出了非常合理的担忧。但我认为,同样重要的是,不要把全球化与贸易协议混为一谈。”“Globalisation is a force. It exists. The question is whether we can use trade agreements to shape it, or whether we want to just sit and be shaped by it.”“全球化是一种力量。它是存在的。问题是我们能否利用贸易协议来影响全球化,还是说我们甘愿坐等全球化来影响我们。”The US, he says, needs to be at the forefront of setting global rules of commerce. Countries like China are engaged in their own rival bids to create regional blocs that exclude the US and do not include the sort of rules the US is pursuing on labour, intellectual property or the internet. Ceding ground to such rivals “has got to be worse for American workers and the American middle class than even the status quo”.他表示,美国需要走在制定全球商业规则的前列。中国等国正试图创建竞争性的区域集团,这些集团排斥美国,也排斥美国在劳动力、知识产权或互联网领域所力推的那些规则。“对美国劳动者和美国中产阶级而言”,向这些竞争对手让步“比保持现状更糟糕”。Negotiators from the US, Japan and the 10 other countries in the TPP are involved in almost constant discussions. Obstacles clearly remain and negotiations are tough. But a TPP deal is “a small number of months” away, Mr Froman forecast during a Senate hearing last week.来自美国、日本和其他10个TPP国家的谈判代表正在进行近乎不间断的磋商。障碍显然存在,同时谈判相当艰难。但弗罗曼在上周参议院的一次听会期间预测,达成TPP只有“几个月”之遥。The US has told its partners within the TPP that it wants to complete negotiations before the summer so that an agreement can be put to Congress by the end of 2015 and before the 2016 presidential campaign heats up.美国已告诉其TPP伙伴国,美国希望在今年夏季之前完成谈判,这样协定就可以在2015年底之前递交国会,赶在2016年总统大选升温之前。Amid pitched partisan battles on other issues, importantly the new Republican leadership in Congress says it wants to give Mr Obama the “fast-track” authority he needs to close the TPP and, eventually, a parallel negotiation with the EU.尽管两党正在就其他问题展开激战,但重要的是,国会新任共和党领导层表示,希望赋予奥巴马缔结TPP、以及最终与欧盟完成类似谈判所需的“快车道”授权。Business groups, Republicans and the administration all believe a healthy majority in Congress will back a vote on what is formally called Trade Promotion Authority. Asked whether he expects such a vote to succeed, Mr Froman answers: “Yes”.商业组织、共和党人以及奥巴马政府都认为,国会的绝大多数议员都将持就这项正式名称为“贸易促进授权”(Trade Promotion Authority)的措施投票。在被问及他是否预测投票会成功时,弗罗曼的回答是肯定的。The consensus in the US is that Congress is likely to vote on fast-track authority within two-three months and that a TPP deal will be closed shortly thereafter. Mr Froman’s big moment — the US’s big trade moment — may well be not very far away.美国的共识是,国会可能会在两三个月内就“快车道”授权进行投票,TPP将在之后不久达成。弗罗曼的重大时刻——也是美国贸易的重大时刻——很可能不久就要到来了。 /201502/358690

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