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时间:2019年08月21日 15:01:56

At least one group in Germany did not seem relieved when Friday’s deadly shooting in Munich turned out to be the work not of jihadi terrorists but of a lone German-Iranian gunman lacking an apparent political motive.上周五的慕尼黑击事件并非出自圣战恐怖分子之手,而是一名没有明显政治动机的伊朗裔德国手单独所为,对此德国至少有一个组织并没有感到松了一口气。The rightwing populist Alternative for Germany party (AfD) had tried to exploit the carnage. With an eye on forthcoming regional elections, the party held Chancellor Angela Merkel and her migration policy responsible for the “terror in Germany and Europe右翼民粹主义政党“德国新选项党AfD)曾尝试利用这次大屠杀。为了在即将到来的地区选举中争取持,德国新选项党称,德国总理安格#8226;默克Angela Merkel)和她的移民政策要为“发生在德国和欧洲的恐怖行为”负责。So far, their message has had little effect. In the aftermath of Munich where 10 people died, including the gunman moderate politicians and citizens alike showed calm and solidarity.到目前为止,这一观点没有引起多大反响。在慕尼黑事件——包括手在内,共有10人死亡——之后,立场温和的政治家和公民都表现出了冷静和团结。That incident, however, came in the wake of an axe attack by an Afghan refugee on a train in Würzburg on July 18, and it was followed by two incidents on Sunday that both involved Syrian asylum seekers: one who had pledged allegiance to Isis blew himself up outside a music festival in Ansbach, injuring 12 people; and another killed a woman with a machete in Reutlingen, in what police suggest was “a crime of passion然而,在这起事件发生前8日,一名阿富汗难民在维尔茨Würzburg)一列火车上持斧伤人。而在慕尼黑事件后的周日(4日)又发生了两起跟叙利亚难民有关的袭击事件:一名曾对“伊斯兰国Isis)宣誓效忠的男子在安斯巴赫(Ansbach)一场音乐节现场外炸死自己,造成12人受伤;还有一人在罗伊特林Reutlingen)持刀杀死一名女性,警方称之为“犯罪”。It appears that Germany is vulnerable, but the attempts of the AfD to use Munich for political advantage drew opprobrium. It was striking that while President Fran#231;ois Hollande of France condemned Friday night’s “act of terrorism few German politicians outside the AfD used the term.看起来德国很脆弱,但新选项党试图利用慕尼黑事件获取政治利益的举动遭到了抨击。引人注目的是,尽管法国总统弗朗索瓦#8226;奥朗Fran#231;ois Hollande)谴责了上周五晚间的“恐怖主义行径”,但在德国,除了新选项党之外几乎没有政治家使用这个措词。While, after Ansbach, Winfried Bausback, Bavaria’s justice minister, wrote that “Islamic terror has reached Germany so far there has been no talk of the kind of “war against terrorismthat Mr Hollande declared in France.尽管德国巴伐利亚州司法部长温弗里#8226;鲍斯巴克(Winfried Bausback)在安斯巴赫事件之后写下了“伊斯兰恐怖活动已扩散到德国”这样的话,但迄今为止,德国人并未谈论奥朗德在法国宣布的那种“反恐战争”。From a German perspective, military action against terrorists in a volatile global situation has to be part of a wider strategy. The country will, however, have to step up its engagement to help stabilise the Middle East, north Africa and the Sahel, where failing states, rampant Islamism and displacement of populations represent a significant risk to Europe.站在德国的角度来看,在当今动荡的国际局势下,打击恐怖分子的军事行动必须被纳入一项更宏大的战略之中。然而,德国将不得不更深地介入,以帮助稳定中东、北非和萨赫勒地the Sahel)的局势,在这些地区,走向失败的国家、伊斯兰主义的流行以及民众流离失所,对欧洲构成了重大风险。Despite the four incidents taking place in quick succession, there has been no groundswell of support for a crackdown by the secret services. For the time being, the debate in Germany on the appropriate domestic response is far removed from that in France, where the state of emergency is the “new normal尽管在短时间内相继发生四起袭击事件,德国并未出现持由特工机关实施镇压行动的强烈呼声。眼下,德国有关国内应如何恰当应对当前局面的辩论与法国大为不同,在法国,紧急状态已成为“新常态”。The tone may change if the attacks continue and more evidence appears linking refugees to terrorist organisations, and this could have implications for the country’s migration debate.如果继续发生袭击事件,并且有更多据表明难民与恐怖组织有联系,那么德国的舆论或许会发生变化,这可能对该国关于移民问题的辩论产生影响。While the federal government has increased spending on integration, the question of how to assimilate, in particular, unaccompanied minors has become especially pressing since the Würzburg attack, which was carried out by a 17-year-old. Moreover, Ms Merkel’s liberal stance on migration retains public support only because the numbers entering Germany fell so dramatically after a fragile deal with Turkey this year.尽管德国联邦政府已增加了在移民融入方面的开,但如何同化移民——尤其是孤身无伴的未成年人——的问题在维尔茨堡事件后已变得特别紧迫。维尔茨堡袭击是由一名年7岁的人发起的。此外,默克尔在移民问题上的自由立场之所以仍获得公众持,是因为今年与土耳其签订了一份脆弱的协议之后,进入德国的移民数量显著下降。Up to now, the government has managed to convey a sense of control. A poll conducted in the three days following Würzburg showed sustained support for the parties in the governing coalition, while the AfD’s rating dropped to 11 per cent. So far, the AfD and other anti-immigration movements have failed to sow distrust and fear, as populists in other countries have done.到目前为止,德国政府成功地传递了一种掌控着局面的感觉。在维尔茨堡事件发生后三天内进行的一份调查显示,执政联盟中的政党依然受到民众持,而新选项党的持率下降至11%。迄今为止,新选项党等反移民组织没能像其他国家的民粹主义者那样成功地散布猜忌和恐惧情绪。After the Munich shooting, Germans stood together in a remarkable way. The city was in lockdown within minutes, with all public transport closing.在慕尼黑击事件之后,德国人令人惊讶地团结在一起。事件发生不久全城封锁,所有公共交通停运。Meanwhile, the hashtag “offenetuer(open door) trended on Twitter as citizens gave shelter to strangers.同时,“打开大门”标#offenetuer)在推Twitter)上流行起来,市民们为陌生人提供栖身之所。This reaction is a hopeful sign in a society that, like others in the west, will have to get used to being targeted, from within and without. That resilience will be put to the test if the attacks continue.在这个将不得不与其他西方国家一样习惯被当作攻击目标——包括来自内部和外部的攻击——的社会,这种反应是一种让人充满希望的迹象。如果继续发生袭击事件,那么这种韧性将面临考验。来 /201607/456955

Now we can be sure. 现在我们可以确定了。Donald Trump will never tack to the middle. 唐纳#8226;特朗Donald Trump)永远不会向中间立场靠拢。Let Trump be Trump, is his team’s new motto, which is baffling since he has not tried anything else. 让特朗普做他自己,是其团队新的座右铭。这句话让人摸不着头脑,因为他从未尝试其它策略。By recruiting Stephen Bannon of Breitbart News, the far right conservative website, to run his campaign, Mr Trump has banished whatever doubts still lingered: his White House bid is chiefly about inciting white resentment. 通过聘请极右翼保守派网站Breitbart News的斯蒂芬#8226;班农(Stephen Bannon),特朗普打消了一切尚存的疑虑:他的竞选策略主要是煽动白人的怨恨。For the next 10 weeks, he will trigger every dark fear he can find. 在接下来的竞选阶段,他将唤醒他找得到的所有黑暗恐惧。It has been more than a generation since Richard Nixon ended America’s long national nightmare by resigning the presidency. Mr Trump’s version still has a way to go. 自理查德#8226;尼克Richard Nixon)以辞去总统之位来终结美国漫长的国家噩梦以来,已经过去了40多年。特朗普版的噩梦还将延续很久。There is little reason to think it would come to an end if he lost.如果他竞选失败了,我们也没什么理由认为这一切会随之结束。The former reality television star’s debt to Nixon is as much about psychology as ideology. 这位前真人秀明星与尼克松相像的地方既有意识形态层面的,也有心理学层面的。America’s 37th president collected resentments like philatelists do stamps. 身为美国7届总统的尼克松收集怨恨就像集邮家收集邮票。Nixon never met a grudge he did not want to nurse. 尼克松从未遇到过他不想耿耿于怀的愤怒。Roger Ailes, the disgraced founder of Fox News, made his name by training Nixon to smile more and treat TV as his friend in his winning 1968 campaign. 福克斯新Fox News)不光的创始人罗#8226;艾尔Roger Ailes)当年成名,就是因为他968年总统竞选中训练尼克松增加微笑、把电视当作自己的朋友,最后赢得大选。It is no coincidence that Mr Ailes is now coaching Mr Trump for his televised debates with Hillary Clinton. 并非巧合的是,艾尔斯现在指导特朗普与希拉#8226;克林Hillary Clinton)进行电视辩论。He has his work cut out. 他的任务十分艰巨。Mr Trump may have borrowed Nixon’s 1968 playbook by running a fear-based campaign that appeals to law and order. 特朗普或许会借鉴尼克968年的剧本,搞一场以恐惧为本的竞选,呼吁法律和秩序。But today’s silent majority is way less white than it was back then. 但是如今沉默的多数派中的白人比例远不及当初。As an electoral strategy, Mr Trump’s campaign is flirting with suicide.以此作为竞选策略,特朗普无异于玩火。Yet it works as a media strategy. 不过,作为媒体策略,该策略行得通。Nixon believed people respond to fear rather than love. 尼克松认为,能唤起人们反应的是恐惧,而不是爱。They don’t teach that in Sunday school but it’s true, he said. 他们不会在主日学校教这些——但这是事实,他表示。He also harboured a deep hatred of the elites the professors, Ivy Leaguers and experts whom Spiro Agnew, his vice-president, called the effete core of impudent snobs. 他还对精英群体——被他的副总统斯皮#8226;阿格Spiro Agnew)称为无耻势利小人的软弱核心的教授、常青藤毕业生和专家——怀有深深的仇恨。Mr Trump is surrounded by people with the same Nixonian grievances. 特朗普的周围也尽是怀有尼克松式不满的人。His first mentor, Roy Cohn, the legendary New York lawyer, advised people that you should know the judge not the law. 他的第一个导师、具有传奇色的纽约律师罗伊#8226;科恩(Roy Cohn)曾发表高见称,与其了解法律,你还不如了解法官。Roger Stone, Mr Trump’s oldest friend with whom he speaks daily, believes hate is a stronger motivator than love. 特朗普每天都会交谈的的老朋友罗#8226;斯Roger Stone)认为,仇恨是比爱更强烈的动机。Paul Manafort, the former Trump campaign manager, who resigned on Friday, made his fortune as an adviser to paranoid strongmen around the world. 上月辞职的特朗普前竞选经理保#8226;马纳福特(Paul Manafort)凭借为世界各地的偏执狂强人担任顾问而起家。Mr Bannon’s website is dominated by conspiracy theories. 班农的网站充斥着各种阴谋论。Now he has a golden chance to turn his paranoia into a presidential campaign. 如今他得到了一个黄金机会,可以把他的偏执狂转化为总统竞选策略。What will it look like?那会是什么样的?Nixon’s ghost was aly visible in the Trump campaign’s content. 尼克松的魅影已经在特朗普的竞选内容中浮现。Unlike Ronald Reagan, Nixon was happy with big government he added more federal agencies than any president since. 与罗纳德#8226;里根(Ronald Reagan)不同,尼克松喜欢大政府——他增设的联邦机构超过之后任何一届总统。Mr Trump’s success with white middle-class voters derives partly from his pledge to leave federal entitlements, such as social security, in place. 特朗普成功赢得白人中产阶级选民的持,部分源自于他承诺保联邦福利,比如社会保障制度。Unlike Reagan, Nixon pursued a foreign policy based more on national interest than American values. 与里根不同,尼克松奉行的外交政策更多地是基于国家利益,而非美国价值观。Such pragmatism en-abled him to override the anti-communist hawks and do the historic deal with Mao’s China. 这样的务实主义使他得以顶住反对共产党的鹰派,与毛泽东主政的中国达成历史性协议。Mr Trump’s admiration for autocrats, such as Russian president Vladimir Putin and even North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, shows a similar disregard for US sensibilities. 特朗普对威权领导人——比如俄罗斯总统弗拉基米#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)、甚至朝鲜的金正Kim Jong Un)——的敬佩,展现了类似的对美国情怀的漠视。But it was Nixon’s cultural message, the stoking of white middle-class anger, that really feeds Mr Trump. 但是,真正滋养特朗普的是尼克松的文化信息——点燃白人中产阶级的愤怒。It will increasingly dominate what remains of his campaign.这将日益主导特朗普余下的竞选之路。Is there any way it could succeed? This is where Mr Trump and Nixon part company. 该策略可能成功吗?这便是特朗普和尼克松有所不同的地方。The latter was the political genius of his age. 后者是他那个时代的政治天才。Nixon certainly cashed in on white resentment against the civil rights reforms of the 1960s. 尼克松当然利用了白人对上世纪60年代民权改革的怨恨。But even at the peak of his southern strategy, he was careful never to express clear racist views. 但即便是在他南方战略的巅峰时期,他也小心翼翼地从不表达裸的种族主义观点。Mr Trump can barely finish a sentence without offending some ethnic group. 而特朗普几乎没有哪句话是不冒犯某个少数族裔的。Nixon also pivoted to the centre after winning the Republican nomination. 在赢得共和党总统提名后,尼克松转向了中间立场。Mr Trump is doing the opposite. 特朗普截然相反。Not only is Mr Trump moving further to the extreme for the general election a tactic for which there is no precedent in US presidential contests he also mocks standard practice, such as setting up professional operations in the swing states. 他在迎接大选之际进一步走向极端——该策略在美国总统竞选中是史无前例的——还嘲笑常规惯例,比如在摇摆州建立专业竞选运作。Mr Bannon, like Mr Manafort, has no campaign experience. 和马纳福特一样,班农也没有竞选经验。Mr Trump is an outsider, advised by outsiders, appealing to voters who see themselves as outsiders. 特朗普是个局外人,其顾问是局外人,吸引的选民自认为是局外人。Nixon would be aghast. 尼克松对此会感到错愕。This is not how you win elections.这不是赢得竞选的方式。But it is a great way to leverage your brand. 但是,这是一个品牌运作的极好方式。Many have doubted whether Mr Trump really expected to win the Republican nomination, let alone have a shot at the presidency. 很多人都怀疑特朗普是否真的期待过自己能赢得共和党提名,更不用说有机会迎接大选了。They suspected his candidacy was just another way of boosting the Trump name. 他们猜测,特朗普竞选总统只是另一种推广其品牌的方式。In the process, Mr Trump found a huge market of people who respond to white identity politics. 在竞选过程中,特朗普发现了白人身份认同政治的巨大市场。In their view, Fox News has become the establishment. 在这个白人群体看来,福克斯新Fox News)已经成为体制的一部分。Its ousted founder, Mr Ailes, is at a loose end. 该机构被驱逐的创始人艾尔斯现在闲着。Mr Trump has 11m Twitter followers, which is a multiple of Fox’s nightly audience. 特朗普在Twitter上拥100万粉丝,是福克斯夜间观众的数倍。What better response to defeat than to monetise your base by launching a Trump News Channel? Stranger things have happened. 面对失败,有什么能比从你的持者获益——开设特朗普新闻频道——更好的回应方式吗?更奇怪的事都发生了。Such a venture would convert all those resentments into hard cash. 这样的项目将把所有那些怨恨转化为现金。As a media baron, Mr Trump could also play chief thorn in the side of Mrs Clinton’s administration.作为媒体大亨,特朗普还可以扮演希拉里政府首席刺儿头的角色。There would be a certain poetry to that. 这种局面将有一些诗意。Mrs Clinton worked as a legal aide to the Watergate committee that brought down Nixon. 当年希拉里在迫使尼克松下台的水门事件调查委员会中担任法律助理。All politics is personal in Mr Trump’s world. 在特朗普的世界里,一切政治都是个人层面的。What more fitting way of completing the circle than avenging the ghost of Nixon?还有什么能比为尼克松的魅影报仇更适合的方式来完成这个轮回呢? /201609/465594

Lech Walesa, the former Polish president and hero of the anti-communist movement, was a paid informant for the Soviet-era security services, Polish investigators said yesterday, citing recently unearthed documents.波兰调查人员昨日援引最近重见天日的文件表示,该国前总统、当年反共运动的英雄莱赫瓦文Lech Walesa)曾是苏联时代安全部门的有偿线人。Mr Walesa, who founded and led the Solidarity trade union that ultimately brought down communist rule in Poland and helped bring an end to Soviet control of eastern Europe, agreed to become a paid informant for the communist secret services between 1970-76, Poland’s National Remembrance Institute said.瓦文萨是团结工会(Solidarity)的创始人和领导人。团结工会最终推翻了波兰的共产党统治,并帮助整个东欧摆脱了苏联的控制。波兰国家纪念研究所(IPN)现在称,他曾970年至1976年同意成为共产党安全部门的有偿线人。The claim, which Mr Walesa denies, comes just months after the return to power of Poland’s conservative nationalist Law and Justice party, which believes that communist-era officials still hold positions of power in the EU’s sixth-largest economy and need to be rooted out. Law and Justice leaders say too many have been able to carry influence, wealth and authority into the post-1989 era and that not enough has been done to prosecute them.瓦文萨否认这一说法。该指控出炉仅仅几个月前,波兰法律与正义PiS)重新掌权。这个立场保守的民族主义政党认为,共产党时代的官员仍把持着波兰(欧盟第六大经济体)的实权职位,这些人需要被扫地出门。法律与正义党领导人表示,这些人当中有不少人989年后的时代能够继续拥有影响力、财富和权力,官方没有采取足够行动对他们提起公诉。The state-run institute said a cache of documents uncovered this week showed Mr Walesa using the code name “Bolekprovided information to the regime’s secret police.国营的国家纪念研究所表示,本周发现的一批文件显示,瓦文萨——使用代号“Bolek”——当年向政权的秘密警察提供了信息。“There is a handwritten commitment to co-operate with the security service, signed: Lech Walesa, ‘Boleksaid the institute, set up in 1998 to investigate crimes committed by Nazi and communist authorities in Poland between 1939 and 1989.“有一份与安全部门合作的手写承诺,签名是:莱赫瓦文萨,‘Bolek’,”该研究所表示。这家研究所成立998年,使命是调939年至1989年期间纳粹和共产党当局在波兰犯下的罪行。Mr Walesa, 72, an international celebrity and cold war hero who was awarded the 1983 Nobel Peace Prize for leading the campaign to restore democracy to Poland, has always denied claims that he collaborated with the regime he went on to campaign against.现年72岁的瓦文萨是国际名人和冷战英雄,他曾因领导在波兰恢复民主的运动而在1983年被授予诺贝尔和平奖。他一贯否认他曾与自己后来公开反对的政权合作的说法。In 2000, he was cleared of any collaboration by a special court. Before the announcement this week, Mr Walesa wrote on his personal blog: “There cannot be any files related to me...I will prove that in court.000年,一个特别法庭判决他是清白的,称没有他与当局勾结的据。在本周的宣布作出之前,瓦文萨在他的个人客中写道:“不可能存在与我有关的任何文件……我将在法庭上明这一点。”Taking office in 1990 as the first freely elected president of Poland for 63 years, Mr Walesa’s popularity has waned over the past decade, amid accusations of collaboration and deep divisions in Polish society.瓦文萨在1990年成为波3年来首位自由选举产生的总统。但在勾结指控和波兰社会深刻分歧的背景下,过0年他的人气下降。The documents were uncovered at the house of Czeslaw Kiszczak, the last communist-era interior minister of Poland, after his widow reportedly attempted to sell them.相关文件是在波兰共产党时代最后一任内务部长切斯瓦夫蘒什恰克(Czeslaw Kiszczak)家里发现的,此前有报道称,他的遗孀试图出售文件。来 /201602/427285


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