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2019年12月16日 05:41:30
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Deleveraging in America美国“去杠杆化”进程Debt calm债务削减Consumers are borrowing again, but the economy has been slow to respond虽然消费者们再次把手伸向了“信用卡”,但经济增长的回应却很慢ECONOMISTS trying to explain the feeble pace of Americas recovery regularly blame deleveraging: the multi-year process of paying off the debts accumulated before the crisis. Yet for households, at any rate, deleveraging has stopped. Mortgage debt bottomed out in the middle of last year and is now rising again. Student and car loans are rising briskly. Only home-equity and consumer loans continue to shrivel. In absolute terms, household debt is rising again (see chart). Relative to household income, it peaked at 135% in 2007, fell to 109% at the end of 2012, and has roughly stabilised around that level.那些想要解释美国经济复苏进程放缓的经济学家们,一如既往地表示该问题的罪魁祸首乃“去杠杆化”一个长年以来的过程,以偿还经济危机发生之前所积累的债务。然而对于普通民众来说,无论从何种角度来看,“去杠杆化”已成过去。抵押信贷规模在去年中期触底反弹,而今年则再次呈现出增长的态势。学生贷款和车辆贷款量迅速上升。而只有房屋抵押贷款和消费信贷仍保持“萎靡不振”。如果按绝对量来计算,美国家庭信贷负担再次处于上升阶段。相对于家庭收入水平而言,2007年上述绝对量的指标为现有的135%,而到了2012年末则跌至现有的109%,并随即粗略地稳定在该水平。Banks, after years spent rebuilding capital and appeasing regulators, are ramping up lending. Total bank credit grew at a 7.5% annual rate in the second quarter, the fastest since 2007, with growth in most categories of loans. “There are lots of people out there, lots of banks out there with a lot of liquidity, competing for loans,” the chief financial officer of Wells Fargo, one of the countrys biggest lenders, recently told analysts. Competition to lend to car buyers has become so fierce that the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a regulator, has warned of deteriorating standards, with loans routinely exceeding 100% of the cars value.多年来,一直都在重新积累资本,都在对市场监管者进行安抚工作,而现在则开始扩大自己的信贷业务规模。在本年第二个季度里,总放贷量录得7.5%的提升,且大部分资金级别的贷款业务均得到了增长,而这是自2007年以来的单季最高增长速度。富国的CFO近日向分析师透露:“现在不仅有着大量需要贷款的人,同时也有大批具有充足流动性并且能够提供贷款的存在,后者要通过竞争来抢夺客户。”目前,汽车贷款市场的竞争已经十分激烈,作为监管者的美国货币监理署正警告着信贷机构,要他们留意日益下降的放贷审核标准,因为汽车贷款的规模已经一如既往地突破了车辆销售总额。That borrowing is on the rise again should come as no surprise. Two studies, one by two economists, Carmen and Vincent Reinhart, and one by the McKinsey Global Institute, a think-tank within a consultancy, both found that prior episodes of post-crisis deleveraging lasted six to seven years on average—just like the present one.信贷总量的再次攀升并不应该让人感到惊讶。一份由两位经济学家Carmen和Vincent Reinhart完成的报告,以及另一份由麦肯锡公司内部的智库麦肯锡全球研究所所完成的报告,两份资料都发现了在上一次的“后经济危机时期”当中,“去杠杆化”的债务削减总体来说持续了六到七年,正如此次经济危机所发生的一样。In theory, deleveraging should end when debts are at a sustainable level, but that is difficult to measure. A recent working paper by three economists at the European Central Bank points out that the debt consumers can bear varies with interest rates, house prices, the rate of home-ownership, the share of the population aged 35-54, the deposit first-time house-buyers are required to make and the foreclosure rate. American debt exceeded the “equilibrium” level by some 25% of household income at the start of the recovery. Since then an improvement in many of these variables has raised the equilibrium even as debt has fallen, bringing the two into line.理论上来说,债务削减应该在负担的债务本身能够持续周转为基准,在该标准下停止进行,但这是很难衡量的一件事。一份由三位欧洲中央的经济学家所完成的工作报告中指出,消费者们能够负担的债务各自不同,而影响该结果的因素包含了利率、房屋价格、住房拥有率、35岁至54岁人口的比例、购房首期款的付率和房屋赎回率等等。美国人们的债务规模超过了“均衡”收入水平,在经济复苏的初期负债总量超过了全国人民总收入的25%。从那时开始,上述影响信贷的因素都在逐渐向好的一面发展,而随着债务水平的下降,收入与贷款的平衡也开始逐渐恢复。The end of deleveraging has not stoked the economy as much as many hoped. In the first quarter of the year the economy shrank by 2.1% on an annualised basis. But there may just be a lag: growth is the second quarter was a much perkier 4%. Goldman Sachs projects that debt will rise faster than income over the next few years, keeping growth above 3%.信贷削减的终结并没有像许多人所期待的那样给经济体打下强心针。在本年的第一季度里,经济总量下降的幅度约为年化2.1%。但这也许只是发生了滞后的现象:第二季度的经济增长态势比前面一个季度要好得多,达到了4%。高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)预计债务总量将会在未来几年里取得比收入增长更高的增速,将保持在3%以上。However, Richard Dobbs of McKinsey points out that although consumers are no longer cutting back, the public sector is only just beginning to tighten its belt and businesses never stopped adding to their debts. He reckons overall deleveraging, including firms and government, could go on for another four or five years.然而,麦肯锡公司的Richard Dobbs表示,虽然消费者们不再省吃俭用地过日子,但社会公共部门的财政紧缩计划只是刚开始,而企业们也不会停止增加自身的负债。他认为,包括公司和政府在内的机构,都会在未来的四年或者五年内保持“去杠杠化”的状态。 /201408/318728上饶玉山县治疗蝴蝶斑多少钱上饶妇幼保健医院打溶脂针多少钱Asian business亚洲商业A world to conquer征世界Asian business is reforming. Its emerging multinationals will change the way we all live亚洲商业正在改革,其新兴的跨国公司将改变我们的生活BUSINESS power follows economic power. In the 1920s British firms owned 40% of the global stock of foreign direct investment. By 1967 America was top dog, with a 50% share. Behind those figures lie cultural revolutions. The British sp the telegraph and trains in Latin America. American firms sold a vision of the good life, honed by Hollywood and advertising. Kelloggs changed what the rich world ate for breakfast, and Kodak how it remembered holidays. The next corporate revolution, as we describe in our special report this week, is happening in Asia. This too will change how the world lives.商业能力紧随经济实力。1920年代,英国公司拥有40%的全球海外直接投资股票。截至1967年,美国以50%的市场份额雄霸世界。这些数字的背后是文化革命。英国将电报机和铁路传至拉丁美洲。美国公司则通过好莱坞和广告营造了一副美好生活的憧憬。氏公司改变了发达国家人们桌上的早餐,柯达则定格了人们对于假期的美好回忆。下一场公司革命,就如同我们在本周的特别报道中描述的一样,将发生在亚洲。这也同样会改变我们生活的世界。Arrested development发展受阻Asian capitalism has brawn. The continents share of global GDP has risen from a fifth to 28% since 1984. It is the worlds factory, a diverse region of rivals bound together by supply chains. But it lacks brains and global savvy. Asia smelts 76% of the worlds iron and emits 44% of its pollution, but hosts only a tenth of its most valuable brands and venture-capital activity. Its multinationals punch below their weight, owning 17% of the worlds foreign direct investment. Wealthy Japan and South Korea have a cast of superstars, such as Toyota and Samsung. But few other firms command the world stage.亚洲资本强劲有力。亚洲大陆占全球GDP的份额自1984年以来已经增长了五分之一,至28%。 这里是世界工厂,由供应链连结起来的竞争多元化的地区。但是它“力大无脑”,缺乏对全球市场的领悟能力。亚洲熔炼了76%的世界钢铁并排放了44%的污染物,但是只掌握了十分之一最有价值的品牌和风险资本活动。这里,跨国公司的实力与其规模并不相称,只拥有世界17%的外国直接投资。富裕的日本和韩国有众多的明星企业,例如丰田和三星。但是,其他能够在世界舞台上占领一席之地的公司却是屈指可数。That is because Asian capitalism has been too cosy. In the boom between 2002 and 2010 easy profits were made at home—growth was fast and labour and credit cheap. Two-thirds of big Asian firms are state-controlled or “business houses” (often family-run). These incumbents tend to be chummy with the government and get cheap land and loans. Half of all billionaire wealth in Asia has been made in sectors, such as property, that are prone to cronyism, versus 15% in the West. Outside Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, innovation has been neglected. Mahindra amp; Mahindra and Great Wall, car champions from India and China, have a combined research-and-development (Ramp;D) budget that is 3% of Volkswagens.这是因为亚洲的资本主义是“温室里的花朵”。从2002到2010年,唾手可得的利润在家里就能轻松赚到——快速的增长以及廉价劳动力和信贷。三分之二的亚洲大公司都是国有的或者家族式经营的商号。它们都与政府有着密切的关系,能够得到廉价的土地和贷款。亚洲近半数的亿万富豪都是从政府有关部门发家的,例如极易产生裙带关系的房地产业,相比之下在西方只占15%。除了日本、台湾和南韩之外,创新都遭到了忽视。马恒达和长城这两个印度和中国的汽车业龙头,其研究开发经费加起来也不过是大众汽车的3%。For Western firms, Asias shortcomings have been a relief. The iPhone shows why: although it is made by the hands of Chinese workers, it is the brains behind it, at Apple and at high-tech component-makers in the rich world, that take nearly all the profits. Now, however, the rules that have governed Asian capitalism for the past two decades are changing. Asian firms are having to become brainier, more nimble and more global.对于西方公司来说,亚洲的短板令他们从中得利。iPhone就是和很好的例子:尽管都是出自中国工人的双手,但从中赚取几乎全部利润的“大脑”,是背后的苹果公司和发达国家的高科技元件市场。然而,这个曾经在过去二十年里管理着亚洲资本的游戏规则正在改变。亚洲企业正在变成更为灵活和全球化的“大脑”。The immediate motivation is underperformance: growth has slowed, and Asian shares have lagged American ones by 40% in the past three years. Three deeper trends are also at work. First, labour costs are rising, not least in China, and East Asias workforce is ageing. Second, Asias middle class is becoming more demanding. They are no longer satisfied with fake Louis Vuitton handbags; they want clean air, safe food and more leisure, and are madly in love with the internet. Third, competition has intensified from Western multinationals, which have invested trillion in Asia. They also now use the same cheapish labour, and they generally have much more sophisticated supply chains, brands and Ramp;D.最直接的动力是表现不佳:增长在减缓,在过去的3年里,亚洲的份额滞后于美国40%。三个更深层次的趋势正在起作用。首先,劳动力成本在上升,尤其是在中国,东亚的劳动力正在面临老龄化。其次,亚洲中产阶级的需求正在变高。他们不再仅仅满足于山寨LV手包,他们想要干净的空气、安全的食品和更多的休闲,同时也越来越迷恋网络世界。第三,来自西方跨国公司的竞争愈发激烈,他们已经在亚洲投资超过2万亿美元。他们现在也有相对廉价的劳动力,除此之外他们大都还拥有成熟的供应链、品牌和研发。With their home markets no longer quite so safe, Asian firms are adapting—and becoming stronger. In response to rising wages, production (of clothes, for example) is shifting from China to South-East Asia and Africa, led by Japanese firms which are also worried about a war with the Middle Kingdom. Chinese firms such as Haier, which makes fridges, plan to automate factories and get into cleverer products. And as the Chinese push upmarket, the Koreans are redoubling efforts to stay ahead. Samsungs spending on Ramp;D rose by 24% in 2013. If they get their act together, India and Indonesia, Asias bumbling giants, will attract lots of factory jobs. Their best firms are also getting brainier. Once dismissed as “body shops”, Indias IT-outsourcing firms are now leaders in big data.亚洲企业的本土市场不再是高枕无忧,所以他们也在适应——同时也在变强。由于上升的工资成本,产品生产(例如装)正在从中国转到东南亚和非洲,日本公司由于担心与中国将爆发战争所以首先采取了这种措施。中国公司例如生产冰箱的海尔,计划加强工厂自动化并生产更智能的产品。随着中国高端市场的发展,韩国正竭力保持其领先地位。三星在2013年的研发经费增长了24%。如果印度和印尼能共同进退,这两个笨手笨脚的亚洲巨人将会吸引大量的工厂就业。他们中最好的公司也正变成“大脑”。曾经被忽略为代工车间的印度IT外包公司现在已经成为大数据的领军者。Rising consumer aspirations are helping internet firms disrupt traditional industries. Alibaba, a Chinese internet giant, is expanding into banking, telecoms and logistics. Analysts think it might be worth 0 billion, more than Chinas steel industry. Chinas drive to reform its state-owned firms is meant to make them more responsive to customers. Xi Guohua, the boss of China Mobile, plans to give shares to his staff. Across Asia demand for health care is likely to create a whole new generation of companies—the industry comprises only 4% of the regions stockmarket, compared with 12% in the rich world.消费者日益增长的需求意愿正帮助互联网企业打破行业传统。阿里巴巴作为一个中国互联网企业巨头,已经将业务扩张到业、电信业和物流业。分析师认为其市值可能达到1500亿美元,超过了中国钢铁行业总和。中国实施国企改革的决心意味着国企要更多的回应消费者的需求。中国移动董事长奚国华计划让自己的员工持有本企业的股份。纵观亚洲,对于医疗保健的需求很有可能会创造一批全新的公司——该行业的份额只占地区股票市场的4%,而在发达国家则占12%。In order to challenge foreign rivals, Asian firms are globalising, following the example of Samsung and Toyota. Lenovo, a thriving Chinese computer firm, has Western-style governance and many foreign staff. Huawei has overtaken Ericsson in telecoms equipment. Indias Sun Pharma is now one of the worlds biggest generic-drugs firms. Tencent, Chinas Facebook, has hired the footballer Lionel Messi to advertise its services abroad. Sprawling business houses are evolving into focused multinationals. Tata Sons is now a superb IT firm and luxury-car maker tied to a ragbag of Indian assets.为了应对国外竞争对手,亚洲公司(例如三星和丰田)正在全球化。作为一家繁荣兴旺的中国计算机企业,联想拥有西式的管理和众多外籍员工。华为在电信设备方面也超越了爱立信公司。印度的太阳药业现在已经跻身为全球最大的非注册商标类药品公司之一。腾讯是中国版的facebook,聘任足球明星莱昂内尔·梅西为其务进行海外宣传。粗放式发展的商业模式已经进化成集中而专业的跨国企业。塔塔之子公司这家优秀的IT公司和豪华汽车制造商,已经成为印度资产大杂烩中的一员。Cereal killers麦片杀手Asian business needs to do much more. Big firms are spending 50% more on Ramp;D than five years ago, but must get better at breakthrough innovations. Conglomerates must focus on a few areas where they can achieve global scale. Governments can do their bit, by freeing state firms from meddling and ensuring that powerful incumbents do not stifle entrepreneurs.亚洲商业前路依然漫长。跟5年前相比,大公司的研发开增加了50%,但仍需突破性的创新。企业集团需要集中优势到某一些领域并做大到国际规模。政府能帮忙的地方就是解放国企、停止插手并确保大权在握的现任领导不会扼杀企业的发展。Western firms should pay attention. In some industries—aircraft manufacturing, for example—the barriers to entry are still immense, but in other sectors brands and technology will no longer be a shield from emerging Asian competition. The threat to low-paid Western jobs may recede. Haiers Chinese workers are paid 25% of what its American workers get, up from 5% in 2000. Instead it may be copywriters, scientists and designers who feel the chill of competition from the East.西方企业需要注意。某些行业(例如航空制造业)的准入门槛仍然很高,但在其他领域,品牌和科技不再是阻挡新兴亚洲竞争对手的避风港。西方国家低收入工作所面临的威胁可能会减少。海尔中国工人的收入是美国工人的25%,自2000年以来增加了5%。相反的,广告文案、科学家和设计师这些人更有可能需要面对来自来亚洲的竞争。History suggests consumers will adapt fast. In 20 years, miracle cures for the old will come from Japan, the best web apps from India and couture from China. And cornflakes, once a cutting-edge food, will be rivalled by congee and dosas, sold in boxes by a global brand. Asian capitalism will change the world—even, maybe, what it has for breakfast.历史明,消费者需要迅速适应新情况。在未来20年,治愈老人的医疗奇迹将发生在日本,最好的网络应用程序来自印度,而高级时装则来自中国。玉米片这个一度被认为是高科技的食品,将被装在盒子里、贴着全球品牌的稀饭和印度薄饼所取代。亚洲资本将改变世界——甚至有可能是桌上的早餐。 /201406/306687上饶铁路医院玻尿酸多少钱

上饶专业除疤痕上饶市立医院激光祛痘手术多少钱Have you ever wondered why some cuisines, like Indian and Thai, are so spicy and others, like English, are so bland?你是否也曾好奇,为何印度菜和泰国菜辛辣无比,而英国菜却近乎清淡无味?Lets see,India and Thailand are very hot countries,while England is cold and damp.印度和泰国气候炎热,英国则又冷又潮,这么说来,或许每一种菜肴都和当地气候有关吧?So the answer has something to do with the climate associated with each cuisine?每一种菜肴都和当地气候有关?Yes,it sure does.是的,当然。The first one is spices mask spoilage, and in a country with a hot climate and without refrigeration, that can come in handy.一种解释是,辛辣香料能防腐,尤其在气候炎热又没有冰箱的国家,可备不时之需。Some scientists suggest that the spices in hot cuisines help protect humans from certain kinds of bacteria found in food.一些科学家推测,辛辣菜肴中的香料有助杀死食物中的某几种细菌,使人们免受其害。In fact, the hotter the country, the more likely it is that its recipes will use the kind of spices that slow down the growth of bacteria.事实上,所处地带越是炎热,食物的烹饪中越会使用辛辣香料来抑制细菌增长。You mean some ingredients can slow down the growth of bacteria?你的意思是一些原材料可以抑制细菌增长Thats right.是这样的。For example, onion, garlic, oregano and all spice alone all kill or inhibit up to twenty-nine different kinds food-borne bacteria.说得对。比如说,洋葱、大蒜、牛至和多香果就能杀灭或抑制多达29种不同的食物细菌。In fact, most spices inhibit bacteria to some extent.实际上,辛辣香料或多或少都能抑制细菌。And if you think about it, this makes sense.细想一下,这是有道理的。As plants evolved, they had to learn to fight off parasites and bacteria in order to survive.在进化过程中,植物必须击退寄生虫和细菌才能得以生存。Thats how they got their distinctive flavoring in the first place.辛辣香料原有的独特味道就因此而来。 /201404/293155Science and technology科学技术Deep-sea exploration深海探索The age of Aquarius 1宝瓶时代1Inner space is almost as hard to explore as outer space探太空难,察深海亦不易Have you seen Camerons latest?卡梅隆的新作你看了吗?JAMES CAMERON knows how to make a splash.詹姆斯·卡梅隆知道怎么制造轰动。Literally.确实是这样。On March 25th the director of The Terminator, Titanic and Avatar plunged into the Challenger Deep2 of the Mariana Trench, 500km from Guam.3月25日,这位执导过终结者、泰坦尼克和阿凡达的导演来到了距关岛500千米的马里亚纳海沟,一头扎进了挑战者深渊。When he reached the bottom, he sent a self-congratulatory tweet, and then tootled about for a couple of hours before taking Deepsea Challenger, his lime-green one-man submarine, back up the 11km to the surface.当他到达海底的时候,他发了一条庆祝自己的推特,接着又唠叨了大概两个小时,才上浮11千米将他石灰青色的单人潜艇-深海挑战者号带出海面。This venture certainly scores high in the jaw-dropping department.这次冒险在劲爆度这方面当然是拿下高分。The only other people to plumb the Challenger Deep—as its name suggests, the most profound point in the ocean—were Jacques Piccard and Don Walsh, who did so in 1960, in a vessel called Trieste.此外只有雅克·皮卡和唐纳德·沃尔什探索过挑战者深渊—正如其名,它是海洋的最深点—他俩于1960年驾驶里雅斯特号深海潜艇下潜至此处。The latest dive, however, was not very successful on the scientific front.然而,这新近一潜在科学层面却并不那么成功,It brought back no specimens.因为它没有带回任何标本。This was in sharp contrast to a less publicised mission, to the paltry depth of 2.5km, where the pressure is a mere 250 times that of the atmosphere.这与一项不太为人所知的行动形成了鲜明对比,后者只下潜到区区2.5千米,承受了250个大气压。This was organised by Ifremer, Frances oceanographic institute.这次行动是由法国海洋开发研究院组织实施,Its three-man craft, Nautile, not only brought back samples, but brought them back alive.派出三人潜艇鹦鹉螺号,不仅带回了标本,而且个个活蹦乱跳。That is no mean feat. Because creatures of the deep ocean have evolved to tolerate so much pressure, their cell membranes tend to liquefy when that pressure is released.那可真不简单。因为深海生物已经进化得能够耐受如此高压,一旦压力消失,它们的细胞膜就会溶解。To stop this happening Nautiles samples were transported in a special chamber called PERISCOP.为了不让这种情况发生,鹦鹉螺号上的标本被置于一个叫做潜望镜的特殊腔体中进行运输。This chamber, designed by Bruce Shillito and Gerard Hamel, of Pierre and Marie Curie University, in Paris, is a tank with a capacity of 2.7 litres which is capable of containing a pressure of more than 200 atmospheres.这个腔体由巴黎居里大学的布鲁斯?希利托和杰拉德·哈默设计,就是一个容量2.7升的水罐,能够承受200个大气压的压强。In 2008 PERISCOP was used to reel in a live fish from a then-record depth of 2.3km.2008年,潜望镜曾被用来从深海打回一条活鱼,2.8千米的深度在当时创了记录。The fish had been living near an underwater hot spring, known as a hydrothermal vent, in the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.那条鱼生活在中大西洋海脊的一个水下热泉附近,也就是所谓的深海热液喷口。This time, Nautiles mother ship, LAtalante, had spent three weeks trawling around a similar vent in the East Pacific Ridge as part of the MESCAL project, a collaboration between a dozen American and European oceanographic research institutions.这一次,鹦鹉螺号的母船亚特兰大号在东太平洋海脊一处相似的热泉附近网了三个星期鱼,这也是欧美十几个海洋研究所合作项目龙舌兰的一部分。On March 26th she sailed into Manzanillo, in Mexico, bearing a trove of specimens including a dozen or so Pompeii worms.3月26日,亚特兰大号满载着所获—包括大约十几只庞贝虫在内的众多标本,驶入了墨西哥的曼萨尼略港。These polychaetes are the most heat-tolerant animals known.这些多毛类环虫是已知最耐热的动物。They are able to live at 60C. Biologists would like to understand how they do it.它们能在60摄氏度的环境中生存。生物学家想要了解它们如何做到这点的。To help them find out LAtalante has been fitted with a second chamber, BALIST, into which PERISCOPs catch can be transferred.为了帮助生物学家找出所以然,亚特兰大号安装了一个附加的腔体十字弓,潜望镜捕获的生物可以转移进去。Researchers on board ship were thus able to study the worms alive for several weeks.这样,载驳船上的研究人员就能够在数周时间中研究活体虫子。For the unfortunate worms, however, Manzanillo was the end of the line.但是,对于这些不幸的虫儿来说,曼萨尼略就是它们生命的终点。They were killed, frozen and transported back to France.它们被杀死,冷冻后运回到法国。Future trophies may be luckier.以后的战利品也许不会这么倒霉。Ifremers researchers are searching for a way to keep deep-sea animals alive indefinitely, so that their entire life cycles can be studied.法国海洋开发研究院的研究人员们正在寻求一种能使深海动物无限期存活的方法,如果成功,动物的整个生命周期都可以加以研究。This means building high-pressure, onshore fish tanks.这意味着需要建造若干陆基的、能耐高压的养鱼水罐。On April 7th the Océanopolis, a big aquarium in Brest, will unveil two such chambers.4月7日,在法国布雷斯特的大型水族馆-海洋之都,两个这样的腔体就将揭幕。Each Abyss Box3 , as the contraptions are known, costs 100,000 and contains 16 litres of seawater held at 180 atmospheres.这些精巧的设计被叫做箱中深渊3,每个耗资10万欧元,能以180个大气压容纳16升海水。Crucially, each has a window: a glass visor 15cm across and 8cm thick.最为重要的是,每个箱子都有一个15厘米宽、8厘米厚的玻璃盔甲观察窗。At the moment, one of the boxes is inhabited by 43 deep-sea shrimps.此时此刻,一个箱子里面住了43只深海虾,另一个里面是3只螃蟹。The other houses three crabs. Both come from Atlantic vents located around 1.8km below the surface.这些住客都是来自大约1.8千米深处的大西洋海底泉口。It will be the first time members of the public who are not James Cameron have had a chance to behold such creatures alive.对于詹姆斯·卡梅隆之外的公众而言,将首次有机会目睹这些生物的活体。 /201307/248328上饶韩美整形打瘦脸针多少钱Books and Arts; Book Review;History of diplomacy;Dealing with the enemy;文艺;书评;外交往事;应敌之策;George Kennan invented the American post-war policy of “containment” of the Soviet Union. His biography, 30 years in the making, fills in the detail;乔治·凯南是战后美国对苏“遏制”政策的始作俑者。他这本耗时30年而成的传记,充满了“遏制”政策的点点滴滴;George F. Kennan: An American Life. By John Lewis Gaddis.乔治·凯南:大国之策 约翰·加迪斯著。Three decades ago George Kennan— former American ambassador to Moscow, multilingual diplomat and conceptualiser of “containment”, the heart of his countrys foreign policy towards the Soviet Union—agreed to allow an American cold-war historian, John Lewis Gaddis, to serve as his biographer. Kennan had decamped from public service to the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton more than 20 years earlier and was aly 78 years old. When he began giving Mr Gaddis interviews and stacks of personal papers in 1981, their understanding was that the biography would appear in the presumably not-too-distant future after the elder mans passing.三十年前,乔治·凯南—前美国驻莫斯科大使,掌握多种语言的外交官,美国对苏外交核心“遏制”政策的始作俑者—同意由美国冷战历史学者约翰·加迪斯为其撰写传记。那时,已78岁高龄的乔治·凯南,早退出政界在普林斯顿高级研究院从事研究已超过二十个年头。1981年起乔治·凯南开始与约翰·加迪斯会面并给予后者大堆个人资料,两人商定乔治·凯南的传记将在其过世后不久的将来面世。Decades of interviews later, Mr Gaddis, who is now 70, had become accustomed to his students “speculating sombrely about which of us might go first”. Even Kennan felt sorry for “poor John”; in 2003 he lamented the “serious burden” of his own “unnatural longevity”. It was only in 2005, when death finally claimed Kennan at the age of 101, that Mr Gaddis could begin thinking about publishing this long-awaited biography.自两人会面后的几十年里,如今已古稀之年的约翰·加迪斯已经习惯了让他的学生们“严肃地预测一下我们两个谁会先走一步“。即便是乔治·凯南也对约翰·加迪斯心怀愧疚;2003年他曾为自己的“超然长寿”带来的“不堪重负”而悲叹不已。2005年,101岁的乔治·凯南终于等到了生命的终点,也是从那时起,约翰·加迪斯才可以开始考虑出版这本经历了漫长等待的传记了。The extraordinary length of the books gestation meant that much changed between conception and publication. Had it appeared in the mid-1980s, the context would have been cold-war stalemate; in the early 1990s, celebration; a decade ago in 2001, concern about terrorism. Because “George F. Kennan: An American Life” finally arrives in the uneasy year of 2011, its context is economic misery and questions about the future of American dominance in international affairs.这本书无与伦比的超长“妊娠期”意味着其起初构思与最终出版之间的多次变更。在书中,80年代中期的背景主要是冷战僵局;90年代早期是庆祝冷战胜利;2001年之后的十年主要涉及反恐。熬到了经历漫长艰辛最终出版的2011年,背景则又成了经济困局和对美国将来是否能主导全球事务的疑问。Mr Gaddis is unequivocal on this topic. He told the New York Times in 2004 that “American imperial power…has been a remarkable force for good, for democracy, for prosperity.” He has also expressed his admiration for the former presidents, Ronald Reagan and George Bush junior, and their versions of “grand strategy”, a topic he now teaches at Yale University. All of these developments have naturally given rise to much speculation. Could Mr Gaddis, who admits that he speaks no foreign languages, get on top of the mountain of material and do credit to such an international polymath? Would his own views emerge along with Kennans? The 784-page answer to both these questions is yes.约翰·加迪斯对每一个话题都不含糊。2004年他曾告诉《纽约时报》的记者:“美利坚帝国有种非常不平凡的力量,一种使之优秀、民主、繁荣的力量。”同时他也表达了对前总统里根和小布什以及他们的“伟大战略”的敬佩之意,这也是他在耶鲁大学教授的课题。这些言语自然引起了人们进一步的猜测。承认自己不懂外语的约翰·加迪斯,能否征堆积如山的资料,为乔治·凯南这样的国际大家赢得赞颂?他的观点是否来自乔治·凯南?这部厚达784页的作品肯定的回答了这两个问题。Mr Gaddis has mastered the sources that came his way over the decades. The resulting biography is engaging and lucid. The first half of the book almost has the sweep of a novel. Readers join Kennan in Germany as the Nazis rise; in Norway in 1931 as the awkward young man meets the parents of his fiancée, to whom he would remain married for 73 years; in the Soviet Union in 1933 as he establishes the first American embassy; in Czechoslovakia as Adolf Hitler arrives and the world descends into another war; and back in Moscow again in 1945 when he receives skin-crawling personal compliments from Joseph Stalin on his Russian language skills. The chapter detailing Kennans breakthrough—achieved by redesigning American foreign policy at a stroke, via his 5,000-word “Long Telegram” from Moscow to Washington, DC, in 1946—is particularly gripping. As he himself put it: “My reputation was made. My voice now carried.”约翰·加迪斯掌握着几十年里符合自己观点的资源,所创作出的传记引人入胜又清晰明了。传记的前半部读起来几乎就是一部小说的翻版。读者们一起与乔治·凯南在纳粹兴起时造访德国;1931年在挪威,一起与这位笨拙的青年会见之后陪伴了他73载未婚妻的父母;1933年与之一起建立美国第一个驻苏联大使馆;和他一道与希特勒一起来到捷克斯洛伐克并目睹了第二次世界大战;之后又一块在斯大林对其俄语技巧令人起鸡皮疙瘩般的恭维下于1945年返回莫斯科。而描写乔治·凯南事业取得重大突破的章节—在1946年通过其从莫斯科发往华盛顿的5,000字“长电”,一举改写了美国外交政策—尤为精。就如同乔治·凯南自己给自己的评价一样:“功成名就,四海扬声。”Before this, Kennan was a promising young officer in the American foreign service; after it, he joined the top ranks of American strategists. His arguments convinced the Truman administration that efforts to continue wartime co-operation with Russia were fruitless. America should recognise the Soviet Union as a new kind of enemy, one seeking to destroy “our traditional way of life”. Rather than fighting a conventional war, America would need to contain Soviet hostility firmly and consistently over the long term. As America resisted Moscow more and more, Kennan felt it was crucial that his country maintain the “health and vigour of our own society” and not become a garrison state.而在那之前,乔治·凯南不过是美国外交界里颇有前途的小青年,之后则位列顶级战略家之层。他的论据实了杜鲁门政府继续与苏联战时合作的努力终究无果。美国应当把苏联做为一个新的,一个试图摧毁“我们传统的生活方式”的敌人来认识,应当放弃传统的战争方式,坚决地包纳苏联的敌意并长期持之以恒。随着美苏争霸的愈演愈烈,乔治·凯南意识到,对美国来讲最关键的是保持“我们这个社会的健康与活力”而不是变成一个堡垒式的国家。After the “Long Telegram”, Kennan returned to Washington and founded the State Departments influential Policy Planning Staff. But, according to Mr Gaddis, his prestige had peaked by 1948. After that, Kennan became increasingly sidelined for opposing what he judged to be excessive militarisation of his containment strategy. Yet he continued to condemn overly militarised policies for the rest of his life.“长电”之后,乔治·凯南返回华盛顿,组建了国务院颇具影响力的机构政策计划处。不过根据约翰·加迪斯的讲述,其名望在1948年达到了顶峰。之后由于抵制其认为的过度军事化遏制政策而逐步边缘化。而乔治·凯南终其余生都在谴责过度军事化的政策。Kennan took particular offence at the attitude of the Reagan administration, which he viewed as “simply childish, inexcusably childish, unworthy of people charged with the responsibility for conducting the affairs of a great power in an endangered world.” Nor did the end of the cold war change his mind. In 1992 Kennan made a point of stating that “nobody ‘won the cold war”. It had been a long, costly tragedy, “fuelled on both sides by unreal and exaggerated estimates of the intentions and strength of the other side.”对于里根政府,乔治·凯南的态度尤其地冒犯,他认为里根“简单幼稚,无法理解地天真,根本不配担负起在有危险的世界指导一个超级大国事务如此之重任。”冷战结束后他也没有改变自己的看法。1992年乔治·凯南曾阐述自己的观点,认为“冷战无赢家”。这场旷日持久,代价高昂的悲剧,“将对另一方意图和力量进行了不现实和扩大估算的双方同时埋葬。”Mr Gaddis disagrees. He closes his study by condemning Kennan for having “blinded” himself to the fact that, in Mr Gaddiss opinion, Reagan brought Kennans “strategy to its successful conclusion”. If Kennan were alive, he would probably still disagree, and not without reason. If the elder mans concern for the costs of bellicose foreign policy, rather than the younger mans enthusiasm for imperial exercise of American power, had dominated the last decade, it would have made for a sounder grand strategy. In ways that this biography seems not entirely to appreciate, Kennans far-sighted opposition to American over-militarisation makes his personal career history less gripping than his legacy.约翰·加迪斯对此并不认同。在传记结尾他责备了乔治·凯南对事实的“视而不见”,按照约翰·加迪斯的观点,是里根的采纳“成就”了乔治·凯南的战略。但是如果乔治·凯南还健在,他可能还会反对,而且还自有道理。如果这位老人担心的是好战外交政策所付出的代价,而不是在其后的十年起决定性作用的青年人对美国超级力量运用的热情,那么它将会是一个更加合理的宏伟战略。如此来看这部传记对乔治·凯南也不全是赞誉,乔治·凯南颇有远见地反对美国过度军事化使其个人职业生涯的精程度比其传记略逊一筹。 /201304/236955上饶市第二人民医院做双眼皮开眼角多少钱

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