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2019年07月21日 10:16:17|来源:国际在线|编辑:天涯新闻
Business商业报道The cigarette industry卷烟工业Running out of puff强弩之末Big tobacco firms are maintaining their poise, but quietly wheezing烟草巨头们都保持姿态,蓄势待发。CIGARETTE smoking is a health hazard of sufficient importance in the ed States to warrant appropriate remedial action.吸烟在美国是一项引起足够重视的健康危害,以保障适当的补救措施。It was 50 years ago this month that Americas surgeon-general sounded that warning, marking the beginning of the end of cigarette manufacturing—and of smoking itself—as a respectable activity.这是50年前的这个月美国卫生部部长发出的警告。这一警告的发出标志着卷烟制造业以及吸烟这一行为本身不再是一项让人尊敬的行为。Some 20m Americans have died from the habit since then.从那时起,大约有2千万美国人死于吸烟。But advertising restrictions, smoking bans and stigma have had their effect: the proportion of American adults who smoke has dropped from 43% to 18%; smoking rates among teenagers are at a record low.但是不论是广告限制或是严禁吸烟的标志都还是起到了作用:吸烟的美国成年人比例已经从43%下降到了18%,青少年的吸烟率也处于历史新低,In many other countries the trends are similar.这种趋势在其他国家也是相似的。The current surgeon-general, Boris Lushniak, marked the half-century with a report on January 17th, declaring smoking even deadlier than previously thought.现任卫生部部长,鲍里斯在1月17日发布的报道对过去的50年作了总结,指出吸烟比预期的更加致命。He added diabetes, colorectal cancer and other ailments to the list of ills it causes, and promised end-game strategies to stamp out cigarettes altogether.在吸烟导致的疾病里,他加入了糖尿病,直肠癌和其它病症,并且提出了终结策略来完全杜绝香烟。Were that to happen Americas three big tobacco firms, Altria, Reynolds and Lorillard, could be snuffed out, too.美国三大烟草公司,奥驰亚,雷诺和罗瑞拉德烟草公司会因此而被扼杀吗?Public-health officials plot the same fate for multinationals that supply other markets.卫生部的官员们为供应其它市场的跨国公司也安排了相同的命运。The hit list includes Philip Morris International, which along with Altria makes Marlboro, the top-selling global brand; Japan Tobacco; and British American Tobacco and Imperial Tobacco of Britain.这其中包括菲利普莫里斯国际公司,它和奥驰亚一起打造了万宝路这一全球最畅销的品牌,除此之外还有日本烟草公司、英美烟草公司和英国的帝国烟草公司。They are a hardy bunch, unlikely to be spooked.这些公司都是硬骨头,不太容易被震慑到。But the methods they have used to withstand a half-century of battering by regulators may be losing potency.但是他们采取的与监管部门周旋了半个世纪的方法可能会失去效力。In the rich world, where the economy is sluggish, smokers are trading down to cheaper puffs.在经济低迷的富裕国家,吸烟者开始选择便宜的产品进行交易,The regulatory climate in developing countries is becoming more hostile.发展中国家的监管环境也变得更加严苛。New technologies such as e-cigarettes promise to deliver nicotine less riskily.一些新的技术,比如电子香烟承诺提供危害风险更小的尼古丁。Big tobacco firms may master them, but it would be a radical shift, akin to converting the car industry from internal-combustion engines to battery power.大的烟草公司可能掌握这项技术,但是这将是一个根本性的转变。类似于汽车产业中从内燃机到电池电源的转变。David Adelman of Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, does not see anything thats upending the conventional tobacco business model.根士丹利投资的大卫阿德尔曼表示,并没有看到任何的颠覆了传统的烟草商业模式,But the model needs tweaking.但模型需要调整。Some reasons for Mr Adelmans confidence are sound. Advertising bans and the industrys pariah status deter would-be competitors.阿德尔曼先生有这样的信心是有理有据的,广告禁令以及烟草业所处的低贱地位都将阻止潜在竞争者的出现。When cigarette-makers raise prices, smokers cough up.当卷烟制造商提高价格的时候,烟民们就咳嗽起来。Global consumption keeps rising, thanks largely to population growth in poorer countries.由于贫困国家人口的快速增长,全球消费量不断上升。The cigarette giants pamper investors with big dividends and share buy-backs; they have flocked to tobacco shares.烟草巨头们放任投资者获得丰厚的分红以及股票回购,使得投资者纷纷涌向烟草股。But the going is getting tougher.但是这种发展趋势已是举步维艰。This month health officials in China, home to more smokers than any other country, called for a ban on smoking in public places.中国作为拥有比其他任何国家更多烟民的国家于本月由卫生部的官员发布了禁止公共场所吸烟的禁令。That would mainly affect state-owned China Tobacco, which has a near-monopoly.这将主要影响到在行业中几乎处于垄断地位的中国烟草国有企业。But multinationals shares wobbled anyway: the proposed crackdown could portend tighter regulation elsewhere.但是跨国公司的股份也是摇摆不定:打击的提议可能会预示着更为严格的监管。Britains government, after some wavering, may now go ahead and copy Australias requirement for cigarettes to be sold in ugly, scary plain packs.英国政府在几番举棋不定后最终决定采取与澳大利亚同样的做法,在烟草的包装上采用印有丑陋恐怖图案的普通包装。Such pleasure-pinching regulation strikes at one of the main ways cigarette companies boost profits: converting smokers to pricier brands.这种pleasure-pinching监管方式主要打击的是烟草公司获取利润的其中一种方式:促使吸烟者选择价格更高的品牌。Premiumisation is still happening in developing countries, where incomes are rising.消费品质优化仍然发生在那些收入增加的发展中国家。But elsewhere smokers are turning to cheaper brands or rolling their own cigarettes.但是在其他地方烟民们开始转而选择低价品牌或是自己卷烟。Many smokers will not trade back up once the economy improves, largely because smoking and advertising bans have robbed the habit of its air of glamour.当经济有所好转时,许多烟民也不会改变他们的选择,这很大程度上是因为吸烟和烟草广告的禁令已经夺走了烟草香味一贯的魅力。Euromonitor International, a research firm, forecasts that everywhere except in Asia and the Middle East prices will rise less from 2012 to 2017 than they did during the previous five years欧睿国际预测除了亚洲和中东地区外,从2012年到2017年烟草价格的上涨将低于过去5年来价格的上涨。Shane MacGuill of Euromonitor sees in all this a very serious threat to the long-term health of the tobacco industry.欧睿国际的巴蒂尔认为这些对于烟草业长期的健康发展是一个严重的威胁。This is spurring a quest for safer methods of supplying smokers with their nicotine fixes.这将促使该行业烟民们以更加安全的方式提供尼古丁。Most of the hype is about e-cigarettes, which give users a hit of vapour infused with nicotine but none of the other, nastier ingredients of tobacco smoke.这其中最有可能的方式就是电子香烟,这种香烟主要提供的是尼古丁蒸汽而不含其它物质,特别是烟草中的有害成分。In America, the fastest adopter, sales have jumped from nearly nothing five years ago to at least 1 billion in 2013.在美国最先采用这种方式的厂家,5年来其销售量实现了从零开始的激增,截止2013年已经达到至少10亿美元。At first, it looked as if e-cigarettes might lure smokers from the big tobacco brands to startups such as NJOY.起初的时候,电子香烟似乎已经诱导烟民们从大的烟草品牌转向诸如NJOY的新兴公司。But incumbents have been quick to see the threat.但是公司们也都迅速的意识到了这种威胁。Lorillard acquired Blu, now the biggest American brand, in 2012.罗瑞拉德烟草公司于2012年收购了蓝光这一现今最大的美国品牌。Altria and Reynolds are expected to launch e-cig ventures nationwide this year.奥驰亚集团和雷诺预计今年将在全国范围内推出电子香烟业务。Imperial recently acquired the e-cigarette operations of Dragonite, a Chinese firm that pioneered the technology.帝国烟草公司最近收购了一家名为叁龙的中国公司,因为该公司率先掌握了该项技术。Though not the first movers, tobacco companies have bigger war chests, more knowledge of smokers habits and better ties to distributors than the newcomers.虽然不是起步最早的,但是烟草公司比起新进的公司来说更具实力,它们更了解烟民们的习惯也有更多的分销渠道。Some pundits reckon Americans will puff more e-cigarettes than normal ones within a decade, but tobacco folk are sceptical.一些专家预测在未来的十年里,美国人将消费更多的电子香烟,但是烟民们对此却持怀疑态度。E-cigs account for just 1% of Americas cigarette market.在美国的烟草市场,电子香烟只占到了1%的份额。In Europe 7% of smokers had tried vaping by 2012 but only 1% kept it up.在欧洲,有7%的烟民都试过了这种 电子烟雾,但是只有1%的人到2012年还在使用。PMI has higher hopes for a new type of cigarette, which heats tobacco rather than burning it.PMI公司更希望有一种全新的香烟,这种香烟只是加热烟草而不点燃。Such cigarettes could deliver fewer toxins than conventional sticks and more pleasure than mere vapour.这种香烟比起普通香烟产生的毒素更少,而与电子香烟的烟雾相比又能使人更加愉悦。PMI says it will invest up to 500m in a factory in Italy to make them.PMI公司表示它们将投入5亿欧元到意大利一家生产这种香烟的工厂。Earlier efforts to hook smokers on heated tobacco flopped, so there is no assurance that PMIs versions will succeed.早期为了使烟民们使用加热烟草的努力都以失败告终,因而不能保PMI公司的这一思路能得以实现。And no one knows what sort of restrictions regulators will eventually place on reduced risk products, including e-cigarettes.并且每人知道对于包括电子香烟在内的降低风险产品会出台什么样的监管措施。If they can manage the transition to less harmful smokes, and convince regulators to be sensible, the tobacco giants could keep up the sort of performance that has made their shares such a fine investment over the years.如果这些公司能实现向低危害的烟草的转变,并且说监管机构意识到这种转变。那么这些烟草巨头们将能有实力继续为他们的投资者们提供丰厚的分红。But some analysts are not so sure.但是一些分析人士对此却不那么肯定。Many tobacco firms are struggling to deliver the consistency of the earnings-per-share model weve seen in the past, says David Hayes of Nomura. If that persists, investors may fall out of love with the industry.野村公司的大卫表示许多的烟草公司都在挣扎着想要继续沿用以前烟草按股数收益的经营方式。如果它们坚持,那么它们的投资者们可能会失去对该行业的兴趣。A half-century after the surgeon-generals alarm, they, and incorrigible puffers, are its last remaining friends.从卫生部部长发出警告的半个世纪以来,这些公司最后的朋友就只剩那些已经无药可救的烟民们了。 /201402/274795Business商业报道Telecom networks电信网络Twos company双巨头In an industry with a cost leader and a price leader, is there room for others?当一个行业里既有成本领导者又有价格领导者的时候,其它公司还有市场空间吗?REVOLUTIONS in technology bring benefits to millions,技术上的革新总是给数百万人带来好处,but the companies that make them happen do not always thrive.但是那些实现技术革新的公司却不一定会因此而兴旺发达。Even when demand is booming, competition to meet it can be brutal.即便是需求迅速膨胀,其市场竞争也会非常残酷。Makers of telecommunications networks know this only too well.通信网络设备制造商非常清楚这一点。They perform the unseen miracles that allow ever more people to talk, work and play on ever smarter devices just about anywhere,它们默默地创造着奇迹,让更多的人可以在任何地点通过更智能的终端聊天、工作和,but their rewards have been mostly meagre.但得到的回报却少的可怜。Merger and failure have thinned their ranks.频繁的并购和失败的经营导致这个行业的玩家不断减少。In Nortel, a Canadian equipment-maker, went bankrupt.在年,北电破产。This year Motorolas wireless-network division was bought by Nokia Siemens Networks, a Finnish-German joint venture created in 2007.同年,托罗拉的无线网络部门被诺西收购。Frances Alcatel and Americas Lucent merged in 2006.法国阿尔卡特和美国朗讯也早在2006年合并。None of these mergers has brought much success.然而这些兼并案例并没有获得多少成功。NSN has yet to make an annual profit.诺西的年度收益至今还是负的。On November 23rd it said it would shed 17,000 of its 74,000 workers and concentrate on mobile-broadband networks, for which demand is set to grow explosively, and on services,where it is relatively strong.在11月23日,诺西宣布将裁员17000人,将把经营聚焦于蓬勃发展的移动宽带网络业务和相对强劲的代维业务。It had aly sold a microwave-technology business; and on November 29th it announced the sale of another small unit.诺西已经出售了自己的微波业务部门;并于11月29日宣布售出了另一个小业务单元。Alcatel-Lucent reported falling revenues and negative cashflow in the third quarter.据报,阿朗在3季度销售额下跌,现金流为负。Investors are said to be impatient with its boss, Ben Verwaayen.投资者也开始对阿朗的老板本. 韦华恩失去耐心。Must all struggle?难道都是在苦苦挣扎么?All but two, it seems.似乎有2家是例外。Telecoms equipment is a scale game,通信设备制造业是一个规模游戏。says Richard Windsor of Nomura, an investment bank. Network-builders need scale to support the hefty fixed costs of research and development.一位来自野村券的分析师理查德.温莎说道。You can be either the cost leader or the technology leader.网络建造者需要规模效应来撑沉重的研发固定成本出。他说:你可以是成本领先者或是技术领先者。If youre neither of those, youre in a spot of bother.但如果你两头都不搭,那你就有麻烦了。The technological pace is set by Ericsson, a Swedish company that scoops more than a third of global mobile-infrastructure revenues, according to Gartner, a research firm.爱立信,这家技术研究型公司引领着技术的步伐; 据高德纳调查,这家来自瑞典的公司攫取了全球三分之一的移动基础网络建设收入。It boasts 27,000 patents and was part of a six-firm consortium that paid .5 billion for a load of Nortels patents in July.它声称拥有27000项专利,同时也是在7月份为收购北电专利付45亿美元的财团成员之一。Anyone mobile phones or networks needs an agreement with us, says Hans Vestberg, its boss.爱立信的老板汉斯?卫翰思宣称:任何一家设计手机或是网络的公司都需要和我们签订协议。The cost leader is Huawei, a Chinese firm.而成本领先者则是一家中国公司, 华为。Its global market share went up from 4.5% in 2006 to 15.6% in 2010, reckons Gartner, despite the political obstacles it faces in America.尽管它在美国市场遭遇了政治障碍; 但据高德纳估算,它的全球市场份额依然从2006年的4.5%增长至2010年的15.6%.Even Ericsson feels the price pinch.即使是爱立信也在为价格头疼不已。Its revenues have risen this year after falling in and 2010,虽然其收入在经历, 2010两个财年的下滑后,今年有所回升,but its margins have been slimmer.但利润却变少了。Mr Vestberg explains that Ericsson has been building new networks for mobile operators and modernising old ones.卫翰思先生解释道,这是因为爱立信在为移动运营商建设新网络同时改造旧网络。That means winning open tenders and taking an initial hit to margins.这就意味着它每赢得一个公开招标就开始一次对利润的冲击。Mr Windsor says that the companies caught in the middle lack the margins either to invest on Ericssons scale in Ramp;D or to fight Huawei on price.温莎先生称:这些公司都遭遇了利润瓶颈,既无法做到像爱立信对研发的投资规模,又不能和华为打价格战。NSN was loth to compete on prices before Rajeev Suri became its boss in , says Bengt Nordstrom of Northstream, a consulting firm.据北流咨询公司的本格特?诺德斯特姆称,在年拉吉夫?苏瑞担任诺西的老板以前,诺西根本不愿意开打价格战。Its market share is down to around a sixth, even with Motorola;它以前从母公司继承了1/4的全球市场份额,it inherited a quarter from its parents.而现在其市场份额连同托罗拉算在一起,已下降到了1/6。Now Mr Suri is taking an axe to costs, though he has not said exactly what he will chop.如今苏立先生大刀阔斧削减成本,尽管他并没有明确表示要砍掉哪一部分。He thinks others will also have to narrow their ambitions.他认为其它公司同样将会采取收缩战略。Life will get no easier for those squeezed between the Swedes and the Chinese.那些被瑞典人和中国人夹在中间的公司日子会不好过。Ericssons scale and technical edge are handy when, say, talking to mobile operators wanting to handle lots of data faster and without interference.对于那些想要获得更快处理海量数据和抗干扰技术能力的运营商,爱立信凭借所拥有的规模和技术优势可以手到擒来。And for those for whom cheap kit is paramount, Huawei will still be hard to beat.而对于那些以设备价格低廉为至上原则的运营商市场里,华为则难逢敌手。 /201305/238287

Scotlands referendum endgame苏格兰公投的收官之战A war of attrition消耗战The peculiar smallness of Scotlands independence debate关于苏格兰独立的辩论似乎太渺小了RESEMBLING nothing so much as a pair of irritable golfers yelling at each other in the clubhouse bar, on August 25th the leaders of Scotlands pro- and anti-independence camps collided in the second of two televised debates. If passions are high as the referendum campaign enters its final leg—with unionists ahead in polls but wary of a late nationalist surge—this reflects the stakes. A “yes” vote on September 18th would terminate Britains 307-year-old political union.除了一对的脾气暴躁的高尔夫球手在俱乐部对骂之外,恐怕再没有任何场景能同八月二十五日的的电视辩论相媲美了。随着公投进入最后关头,民众热情高涨,与联合主义者提前进行投票的同时,又在警惕着后期民族主义的激增—这种状况反应了公投中各利益方的关系。9月18日的苏格兰独立公投或许可能结束英国307年的的政治联盟Filter out the noisy interruptions, though, and both Alex Salmond, Scotlands nationalist premier, and Alistair Darling, the unionist former chancellor of the exchequer, make dry points. Neither lingered on the overall case for or against the union, though Mr Darling banged on about currency whenever he could. For much of the debate they tussled over domestic policy areas like health care and housing benefits. A contest between two starkly different futures for Britain came to resemble one over todays public services.除却令人恼怒的打断,苏格兰民族党领导人亚历克斯·萨尔蒙德和身为联合主义者的前财政大臣阿里斯泰尔·达林都分别直截了当地提出自己主张的要点。无论人民是在大氛围下左右摇摆或者是明确持抑或反对苏格兰独立,达林先生都尽其所能随时宣扬着英联邦的货币政策。而双方在辩论中就许多国内政策问题诸如卫生保健和住房福利打得如火如荼。这使得两种截然不同的英国未来之间的较量逐渐向今日公共政策的改革靠拢。Another recent debate involving lesser figures in Dalkeith, near Edinburgh, suggests why the campaigns are so keen to occupy this ground. The church where it was held contained a cross-section of the electorate: from teenagers to pensioners, some in tracksuits, others in collar and tie. From the altar, an actuarial “no” campaigner brandished charts depicting the risks of independence. They clapped. Then his “yes” opponent lamented “Scotlands plundered oil”. They clapped again. Many cheerily applauded both sides.最近的另一项辩论涉及到在爱丁堡附近的Daikeith中一些并不重要的区域,并且说明公投运动为何如此热衷取得这片区域的持。那里的教区选民跨度颇大—从轻狂少年到耄耋老者,有工薪阶层也有精英人士。在这里,当反对独立的阵营剖析苏格兰独立的种种风险的时候,人们会鼓掌表示赞同;当独立主义者们宣扬着“苏格兰石油被英国掠夺”的时候,人们依旧鼓掌附和以表持。这其中很多人都摇摆不定犹疑不决。The latest Scottish Social Attitudes survey suggests that about one-third of Scots are committed to independence and another third think devolution need go no farther than it has aly. The referendum will be decided by the rest—pragmatists who would prefer greater autonomy without quitting the ed Kingdom altogether. Wise to this, the two sides have tried to convey that this is more-or-less what voting for them would achieve in practice, while seeking to push the other lot off the “devo max” territory. Hence the debates apparent smallness.最新的关于苏格兰社会态度的调查显示,约有三分之一的苏格兰人致力于独立;另外三分之一的苏格兰人认为维持如今的自治水平,不必走得更远 。苏格兰公投将由那些想要得到更大自主权而不是脱离英联邦的实用主义者一锤定音。对于此种状态,明确的做法是,两大阵营都在试图传达着一个讯息—这些实用主义者通过自己的投票或多或少会实现什么,并且同时寻求促使其他人脱离“放权最大”的舒适区域。因此,辩论相比起来就是显而易见的渺小。The three main unionist parties—Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives—have each published proposals for further devolution. The Tory report, published in June, was the most striking: a party that has long stood for political centralisation offered Edinburgh full control of income tax. And the nationalist government has alighted on similar ground from the opposite side. Last November it published a 670-page manifesto insisting that an independent Scotland could share the pound, stay in the EU and remain closely integrated with the rest of Britain. Over the next few weeks campaigners from both camps will assure voters that their particular brand of semi-detachedness holds the solution to their day-to-day gripes.联合主义的三大主要党派—工党、自由民主党和保守党,已经分别就进一步放权发出声明。六月发布的保守党的报告最引人注目---即主张长期保留爱丁堡对所得税的完全控制的政治权力。而苏格兰政府也在相反的方面化解了窘境—在其去年十一月出版的670页的宣言中,独立的苏格兰可以继续享用英镑,留在欧盟并密切保持其与英国其他部分的整合。在接下来的几个星期,两个阵营的活动家们为了确保选民数量,他们向投票者承诺,两大阵营可以在尽其所能来帮助选民解决日常困扰。This is remarkable, and lamentable. A victory for the nationalists would send tremors far beyond Scotland. It would trigger calls for David Cameron, the Conservative prime minister, to resign. It would change the arithmetic, and quite possibly the outcome, of next years general election. It would embolden separatists in Spain, Belgium and elsewhere. The difference between the campaigns pitches to voters may be relatively modest, but that between a “yes” and a “no” is vast.结果显著却又可悲的。民族主义者的胜利所带来的震颤要远远超出苏格兰的范围。这或将触发保守党首相卡梅伦的辞职,并且也会改变立法,甚至让明年的大选变数重重。并且这也将鼓励西班牙、比利时以及其他地方分离分裂主义者。虽然选民与阵营之间的差异是温和的,但是在“是”与“否”之间,差异是巨大的。 /201409/326980

At first glance, astronomers and cancer researchers may not seem to have a lot in common.乍一看,天文学家和癌症研究者似乎没有什么共同点。After all, astronomers spend their time gazing at distant stars and galaxies, while oncologists fight tumors.毕竟,天文学家致力于观察遥远的星体和星系,而肿瘤学家则治疗肿瘤。But at the University of Cambridge in the UK, astronomers and cancer researchers have joined forces.但是,在英国的剑桥大学,天文学家和癌症研究者已经开始合作了。Specifically, astronomers there repurposed image analysis algorithms they use to spot distant galaxies to help oncologists diagnose aggressive tumors.具体来说,天文学家改进了过去曾用于观测遥远星系的影像分析法,来帮助肿瘤学家诊断恶性肿瘤。Here is how it works如何实现Astronomers use the algorithms to analyze faint, indistinct images captured by large telescopes.天文学家用这种影像分析方法分析由大型望远镜捕捉到的微弱,模糊的星体图像。Powerful computers help identify these images as galaxies, stars, planets, and other celestial bodies.强大的计算机可以帮助辨认这些图像是星系,恒星,行星还是其它天体。When cancer researchers study tumors, they stain samples to pick out subtle differences that clue them in to what types of proteins a given tumor harbors.当癌症研究者研究肿瘤时,对样本染色,进而辨别出微小的差异,染色可以显示出肿瘤样本的蛋白质类型。Identifying the proteins helps researchers know if a tumor is especially aggressive.鉴别蛋白质可以帮助研究人员确定肿瘤是否是恶性的。This process typically involves individual scientists peering at tumor samples under microscopes, which is time consuming and laborious.这一过程通常需要专业的科学家在显微镜下观察肿瘤样本,既费时又费力。But using reconfigured image analysis algorithms to identify tumor proteins can speed the process up significantly.但是使用改良后的图像分析方法鉴别肿瘤蛋白质,速度就显著加快了。To test the process, the researchers used the adapted algorithms on samples from more than 2,000 breast cancer patients.为了测试这种方法,研究人员对2000多名乳腺癌患者的样本使用改良后的算法分析。They found that computer analysis was just as accurate at detecting specific proteins as scientists peering through microscopes.他们发现,电脑分析和科学家通过显微镜的观察在鉴别特定蛋白质时同样精确。And the computer was much faster.而且计算机的速度更快。The researchers plan to further refine the computerized method by testing it on samples from more than 20,000 breast cancer patients.研究人员计划通过测试20000多名乳腺癌患者样本,进一步改进计算机算法。 /201311/264391

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