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Donald J. Trump left little doubt on Monday that he intends to run on the same incendiary proposals on immigration and terrorism that animated his primary campaign, using his first speech after the massacre in Orlando, Fla., to propose sweeping measures against Muslims that paid little heed to American traditions of pluralism.在移民和恐怖主义问题上的煽动性主张推动了唐纳德·J·特朗Donald J. Trump)的初选,现在他将继续坚持这些主张的意图几乎已经毫无悬念:本周一,他发表了佛罗里达州奥兰多大规模击案发生后的首次讲话,建议对穆斯林采取一系列打压性的、无视美国多元化传统的措斀?Without distinguishing between mainstream Muslims and Islamist terrorists, Mr. Trump suggested that all Muslim immigrants posed potential threats to America’s security and called for a ban on migrants from any part of the world with “a proven history of terrorismagainst the ed States or its allies. He also insinuated that American Muslims were all but complicit in acts of domestic terrorism for failing to report attacks in advance, asserting without evidence that they had warnings of shootings like the one in Orlando.特朗普没有提及主流穆斯林和伊斯兰恐怖分子之间的区别,表示所有穆斯林移民都对美国的安全构成潜在威胁,呼吁禁止那些来自“有据可查存在”针对美国或其盟国“恐怖主义历史”的国家的人移民。他暗示,美国穆斯林如果不事先揭发国内的恐怖主义活动,就几乎属于同谋,毫无据地声称他们提前就知道奥兰多击案这类事情的风声。Mr. Trump’s speech, delivered at St. Anselm College in Manchester, N.H., represented an extraordinary break from the longstanding rhetorical norms of American presidential nominees. But if his language more closely resembled a European nationalist’s than a mainstream Republican’s, he was wagering that voters are stirred more by their fears of Islamic terrorism than any concerns they may have about his flouting traditions of tolerance and respect for religious diversity.特朗普在新罕布什尔州曼彻斯特圣安塞姆学院(St. Anselm College)发表的这次演讲,非同寻常地打破了美国总统提名人长期以来的措辞准则。不过,如果说他的言辞更像是欧洲的民族主义者,而不是共和党主流人士,那是因为他断定,相比于对伊斯兰恐怖主义的恐惧,选民不会太担忧他对宽容和尊重宗教多样性传统的蔑视。Mr. Trump, who drew criticism last fall, including a sharp rebuke from House Speaker Paul D. Ryan, for first suggesting a constitutionally questionable ban on Muslim immigration, on Monday described Islamic extremism as a pervasive global menace that was penetrating the ed States through unchecked immigration.特朗普去年秋天第一次建议禁止穆斯林移民时,招致了众多批评,包括众议院议长保罗·D·瑞安(Paul D. Ryan)的尖锐驳斥。这种建议在宪法上是站不住脚的。本周一,他把伊斯兰极端主义形容为一种遍及全球的威胁,而且由于对移民不加核查,这种威胁正在渗透进美国。Citing the Boston Marathon bombing in 2013 by two men with ties to Chechnya and instances of radicalization in Minnesota’s Somali immigrant community, Mr. Trump painted a bleak portrait of the country as under siege from within and abroad.特朗普描绘了一幅美国遭受内外夹击的惨淡景象,他提到2013年波士顿马拉松爆炸案中两名和车臣有关的作案男子,还提到了明尼苏达州索马里移民社区的激进化现象。“They’re trying to take over our children and convince them how wonderful ISIS is and how wonderful Islam is,Mr. Trump said, referring to the Islamic State, also known as ISIL. “And we don’t know what’s happening.”“他们试图给我们的孩子洗脑,让他们相信ISIS是多么美妙,伊斯兰教有多么美好,”特朗普说。“我们却不知道这样的事正在发生。”伊斯兰国缩写为ISIS,或者ISIL。He accused American Muslims of failing to “turn in the people who they know are bad,effectively blaming other Muslims for the shooting in Orlando and the attack last year in San Bernardino, Calif., that was carried out by a married couple inspired by the Islamic State.他指责美国穆斯林没有“揭发他们知道的坏人”,基本上就是在为奥兰多击案和去年的加利福尼亚州圣贝纳迪诺击案指责其他穆斯林。去年那起案件是一对夫妇受到伊斯兰国的激发后犯下的。“They didn’t turn them in,Mr. Trump said, “and we had death and destruction.”“他们没有举报这些人,”特朗普说,“于是我们就得到了死亡和毁灭。”Mr. Trump carefully his remarks from a teleprompter and offered more detail than his stump speeches generally contain, but his speech was still rife with the sort of misstatements and exaggerations that have typified his campaign.特朗普小心翼翼地读着提示器上的讲稿,这一次他给出了比平常那些巡回演讲更多的细节,然而其中依然充斥着不实和夸张的说法,而这在他的竞选中司空见惯。He repeatedly stretched the facts, for example, in describing the ed States as overrun by dangerous migrants. He claimed the country has an “immigration system which does not permit us to know who we let into our country,brushing aside the entire customs and immigration enforcement infrastructure. And he asserted that there was a “tremendous flowof Syrian refugees, when just 2,805 of them were admitted into the country from October to May, fewer than one-third of the 10,000 Syrians President Obama said the ed States would accept this fiscal year.例如他反复夸大事实,形容美国已经被危险的移民侵占。他宣称国家的“移民制度不允许我们知道,我们都在让什么人进入我们的国家”,视整个海关和移民执法体系如无物。他断言叙利亚难民正“源源不断流入”,可从去年10月到今年5月,总共只有2805人获准进入美囀?奥巴马总统曾表示本财年要接收一万名叙利亚难民,现在连三分之一都不到。Mr. Trump described the gunman in the Orlando shooting as “an Afghan,though he was born an American citizen in New York City to parents who had emigrated from Afghanistan to the ed States over three decades ago.特朗普称奥兰多击案中的手是“一个阿富汗人”,然而他是在纽约市出生的美国公民,父母是三十多年前移民到美国的阿富汗人。Mr. Trump assailed the presumptive Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, by name, accusing her of favoring immigration policies that would invite a flood of potential jihadists to the ed States, which he warned could be “a better, bigger, more horrible version than the legendary Trojan Horse ever was.”特朗普指名道姓地攻击了稳获民主党提名的希拉釷克林顿(Hillary Clinton),指责她持移民的政策会导致大量潜在的圣战分子涌入美国,他警告称那将“比传说中的特洛伊木马更厉害、更庞大、更恐怖”。Mrs. Clinton, speaking in Cleveland earlier in the day, argued that engaging in “inflammatory, anti-Muslim rhetoricmade the country less safe. Delivering the sort of conventional speech that most presidential contenders would offer in the wake of tragedy, she did not mention Mr. Trump by name. But, while saying the “murder of innocent people breaks our hearts, tears at our sense of security and makes us furious,she described proposals to ban Muslim immigration as offensive and counterproductive.当天早些时候克林顿在克里夫兰讲话时表示,使用“煽动性的、反穆斯林的言论”对这个国家的安全无益。多数在竞逐总统之位的人,在这个悲剧的时刻都会采取她这样的常规措辞,她在演讲中没有提到特朗普的名字。然而在说到“对无辜者的屠戮令我们心碎,冲击着我们的安全感,让我们怒不可遏”时,她表示有关禁止穆斯林移民的提议是令人反感的,只会起到反效果。“America is strongest when we all believe we have a stake in our country and our future,she said, calling to mind the bipartisan spirit that took hold after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, when she was a senator from New York.她说,“一个人人相信自己是国家与文化一分子的美国,才是最强大的美国,”她希望大家回想两党0011日恐怖袭击之后那种同仇敌忾的精神,当时她是来自纽约州的参议员。Mrs. Clinton has sought to present herself as the default choice of mainstream voters, including Republicans disturbed by Mr. Trump, and on Monday she stressed the importance of building relationships between law enforcement agencies and American Muslims.克林顿希望把自己塑造成一个主流选民的默认选项,这其中包括那些对特朗普感到不安的共和党人。她在周一强调,执法部门与美国穆斯林建立关系是十分必要的。“Our open, diverse society is an asset in the struggle against terrorism, not a liability,Mrs. Clinton said.“一个开放、多元的社会,是我们对抗恐怖主义的本钱,不是负累,”克林顿说。As Mrs. Clinton reached for the mantle of statesmanship, Mr. Trump’s speech amounted to a rejection of the conventional wisdom that he must remake himself for the November election as a more sober figure and discard the volcanic tone and ethnic and racial provocation that marked his primary campaign.克林顿试图担起治国者的职分,而特朗普的演讲则打破了人们的一个普遍看法,即他必须重塑自己,以一个更理智的形象面1月的大选,摒弃火山喷发般的腔调和对族群、种族问题的撩拨,虽然那些是他在初选中的特点。Yet Mr. Trump has showed little interest in assuaging those concerns. He used the hours after the Orlando massacre to claim prescience about the attack and to demand Mr. Obama’s resignation. Then, in a television interview on Monday morning, Mr. Trump darkly suggested that the president was sympathetic to Islamic terrorists.然而特朗普似乎并不打算平息人们的忧虑。在奥兰多惨案发生后几小时里,他宣称自己对袭击早有预见,并要求奥巴马辞职。在周一上午的一次电视采访中,特朗普甚至含沙射影地说总统同情伊斯兰恐怖分子。“We’re led by a man that either is not tough, not smart, or he’s got something else in mind,Mr. Trump said. “There is something going on.”“我们现在这个领袖,要么是不够强硬,要么是不够聪明,要么就是他有别的什么想法,”特朗普说。“感觉这里面有问题。”Some Republicans said Mr. Trump’s determination to play to his hard-line base was undermining his standing as a general election candidate.一些共和党人认为,特朗普如此坚持迎合自己的强硬派选民阵营,对他的大选是不利的。“He has to do what Reagan had to do. Reagan eventually had to make a sale that he was not a risk,said Thomas M. Davis III, a former Republican congressman, recalling the 1980 election. “There is time, but the way he’s going about it now doesn’t do it at all. It keeps him in the hunt, but it doesn’t get him elected.”“他必须像里根那样。里根最终让人相信,他不是一个危险人物,”前共和党众议员托马斯·M·戴维斯三Thomas M. Davis III)回忆980年的选举。“还有时间,但以他现在的样子,他根本没有那么去做。这能让他继续保持竞争力,但他不能靠这样当选。”John F. Lehman, a former Navy secretary and an adviser to John McCain’s and Mitt Romney’s presidential campaigns, said he anticipated that Mr. Trump’s standing would improve after the Orlando attack.前海军部长、曾任约翰·麦凯恩(John McCain)和米特·罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)竞选顾问的约翰·F·莱曼(John F. Lehman)说,他预计特朗普的地位在奥兰多袭击事件之后会有所改善。But he said Mr. Trump’s Muslim ban went “too farand questioned whether he had made any effort to learn about national security.但他说特朗普的禁穆斯林提议“过头了”,他还怀疑特朗普根本没有花时间去了解国家安全。Mr. Trump’s remarks may come as an acute disappointment to Republican leaders in Washington who have spent the days since he claimed the party’s nomination pleading with him to button down his campaign, only to see him intensify its racial tenor.特朗普的言论可能让华盛顿的共和党领导层倍感失望。在他宣布获得本党提名后的这些天里,他们一直在劝说他在竞选中有所收敛,结果看到他的种族言论反而更激烈了。It is enough to convince senior Republicans that talk of an eventual pivot is folly that he is unwilling or incapable of being reined in.这已经足以让资深共和党人相信,指望事情最终出现转机是愚蠢的——他没有管住自己的意愿或能力。“Everybody says, ‘Look, he’s so civilized, he eats with a knife and fork,’said Mike Murphy, a former top adviser to Jeb Bush. “And then an hour later, he takes the fork and stabs somebody in the eye with it.”“大家都在说,‘你看他多文明,在用刀叉吃饭呢,’”杰布·布什(Jeb Bush)的前高级顾问迈克·墨菲(Mike Murphy)说。“可过了一个钟头,他就用叉子捅了别人的眼睛。”来 /201606/449669

After more than a decade in power, RecepTayyip Erdogan has come to tower over Turkey. 在掌权十多年后,雷杰#8226;塔伊#8226;埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)终于凌驾于土耳其之上。The country has started to slip its westernmoorings. 土耳其开始脱离西方怀抱。A republic shaped to be secular andwesternised is in some respects beginning to resemble its Arab neighbours.当初以世俗化和西方化为设计宗旨的一个共和国,在某些方面开始变得就像其阿拉伯邻囀?Mr Erdogan, who five years ago, during theArab uprising, urged countries in the region to adopt secular constitutions,has now chosen identity politics —with sectarian trimmings. 年前的阿拉伯起义期间,埃尔多安曾敦促中东国家实行世俗宪法,现在他选择了带有宗派色的身份认同政治。Polarisation has brought the presidentunparalleled electoral success. 观点极化让这位总统在选举中获得空前成功。He has sharpened the Sunni, Islamist andTurkic identity of his Justice and Development party (AKP), and has worked tolock his opponents into separate blocs for the quasi-Shia Alevi and Kurdishminorities. 他在自己的正义与发展Justice and Development party, AKP)中增强了逊尼派、伊斯兰主义者和突厥人的势力,并努力将对手限定在准什叶派的阿列维人和库尔德人等少数群体。He has trampled on the rule of law and,after the shock of mid-July’s abortive coup, decreed emergency rule.在今月中旬的未遂政变之后,他践踏法治,颁布了紧急法令。Turkish officials can and do point out thatFrance —the European state the Turkish republic arguably has most copied —alsodeclared a state of emergency after last November’s jihadi assault onParis. 土耳其官员们可以(而且确实)指出,法国(可以说是土耳其共和国模仿最多的欧洲国家)在去年11月圣战主义者袭击巴黎之后也宣布进入紧急状态。But the emerging reconfiguration of Turkey’s armedforces and security services may be heading towards models more familiar to theArabs and Iranians.但土耳其武装部队和安全部门正在浮现的改组表明,它们正趋向阿拉伯和伊朗模式。Mr Erdogan and his government wereprofoundly shaken by the plot, which they blame on followers of FethullahGulen, leader of a shadowy Islamist cult allied to the AKP for a decade butlocked in an escalating power struggle with its leaders for the past fiveyears. 埃尔多安及其政府因政变而遭受深远冲击——他们指称是一个隐居的伊斯兰主义团体领导人法士#8226;葛兰(Fethullah Gulen)的追随者们发起了政变。这个团体曾与AKP结盟十年,但在过年与AKP领导人的权力斗争日益升级。Almost half of Turkey’s generalshave been arrested or cashiered as Gulenist infiltrators since the coup, inpurges that have ensnared more than 100,000 people. 自政变以来,土耳其近半数将军被视为葛兰分子而被捕或者革职,这场大清洗让0万人受到牵连。Turks across the political spectrum areshocked not just at the violence of the mutineers, who killed 240 people, butalso because, as one liberal analyst puts it, It is very hard for us to graspthat our national army was in fact somebody else’s army.不同政治见解的土耳其人都感到震惊,不仅仅是因为导40人丧生的暴乱活动,还因为像一位自由派分析师所说的那样,我们很难理解,我们国家的军队怎么成了某个外人的军队。Mr Erdogan, by contrast, emboldened bysurvival and sensing an opportunity, called the coup a gift from God enablinghim to cleanse the army.相比之下,埃尔多安因幸免于难而变得大胆起来,并察觉到一个机遇,他将此次政变称为安拉赐予的礼物,让自己能够清洗军队。Among Turkey’s neighbours, insecure rulershave developed a model whereby a well-armed national guard (in Saudi Arabia),republican guard (in Saddam Hussein’s Iraq or Ba’athist Syria) or revolutionaryguard (in Iran) serve as a counterweight to the regular army and as praetoriansfor the regime. 在土耳其的邻国当中,缺乏安全感的统治者发展出如下模式:成立全副武装的国民卫队(在沙特阿拉伯)、共和国卫队(在萨达#8226;侯赛Saddam Hussein)的伊拉克或者阿拉伯复兴社会Baathist)掌控的叙利亚)或者革命卫队(在伊朗),将其作为政权的御林军,抗衡正规军队。Given the extent of hostile penetration ofTurkey’s army, and the length of time it will take to replace the purgedcommanders with loyal cadres, some observers are wondering if Mr Erdogan is nowmoving towards a version of this praetorian model, based on the police.鉴于土耳其军队遭到恶意渗透的程度,而且用自己人取代被清洗出去的将军们需要花费很长时间,一些观察家揣测,埃尔多安是否正以警察为依托,组建某种版本的御林军。The police is becoming a paramilitary forcewhose first duty is to protect the regime, says one leading analyst. 一位领先分析师表示:警察正成为一首要职责为保护政权的准军事力量。A western ambassador says: I think they’re verytempted to do it. 一位西方大使表示:我认为他们渴望这么做。After all, what saved them was a police onsteroids and special forces; they know how close they came that night, sodefinitely they’re thinking of balancing off the army.毕竟,救了他们的是就像嗑了药的警察,还有特种部队,他们知道那天晚上他们距离失去一切有多近,因此他们肯定想制衡军队。Additional measures include moving theparamilitary gendarmerie from defence to the interior ministry, the dissolutionof the presidential guard and a widely anticipated purge of the nationalintelligence service.其他措施包括将准军事的宪兵队由国防部改为内政部管辖,解散总统卫队,并如广泛预期的那样清洗国家情报部门。Turkish officials say they are doing nomore than copying how, say, Italy manages its carabinieri or Spain its GuardiaCivil. 土耳其官员们表示,他们只不过是复制其他国家的做法,比如说意大利对其宪兵队的管理,或者西班牙对其国民警卫队的管理。The answer to why the police are the heroesof July 15 [the date of the coup] is that there had aly been a purge ofGulenists inside the police and police intelligence in the previous year and ahalf, says one. 一位官员称:警方为何成5日(政变日)的英雄的在于,在过去一年半里,警察和警方情报部门内部已经对葛兰势力进行了清洗。There is no change in the model.换句话说,模式没有改变。One commentator and former AKP supportersays: The police aly have the upper hand in terms of trust —of societynot just of Erdogan. 一位曾经持AKP的员表示:警方已经在取得社会信任(不只是埃尔多安的信任)方面占据优势。Their greater prominence, including massivedeployments of thousands of officers in Ankara and Istanbul last month, istherefore natural. 因此他们的地位上升是自然的,包括上月在安卡拉和伊斯坦布尔投入数千警力。So, too, some analysts argue, is a firmergovernment grip on the army, which is being gradually stripped of theprivileges and power that defined the military as a caste and once made it thefinal arbiter of political power.一些分析师辩称,政府加强对军队的控制也是自然的。如今军队正被逐步剥夺特权和权力,过去这些特权和权力让军队成为一个社会阶层,一度让其成为政治权力的最终仲裁者。This may all sound natural in the voice ofprofessional civil servants or AKP sympathisers. 如果这话从职业公务员或者同情AKP的人士嘴里说出,听上去可能非常自然。But the voice we are more likely to behearing is Mr Erdogan’s. 但我们更可能听到的是埃尔多安的声音。And the concentration of power around him,especially if it is going to acquire a permanent paramilitary layer, may notseem natural once the coup panic subsides.一旦政变引起的恐慌消退,围绕他集中的权力似乎就不会那么自然了,尤其是如果这种集权将要获得一层永久的准军事力量的话。来 /201610/472906

BEIJING (AP) Hillary Clinton privately said the U.S. would ;ring China with missile defense; if the Chinese government failed to curb North Koreas nuclear program a potential hint at how the former secretary of state would act if elected president.希拉釷克林顿私下表示美国会用“防御导弹包围中国”,如果中国政府不能有效遏制北朝鲜的核计划,这很可能暗示着这位前国务卿如果能当选总统后会采取的行动Clintons remarks were revealed by WikiLeaks in a hack of the Clinton campaign chairmans personal account. The emails include a document excerpting Clintons private speech transcxts which she has refused to release.克林顿的讲话因克林顿竞选主席的个人账户被黑客攻击,被维基解密所披露。这封电邮包含了一个她不愿公开的私人演讲文档A section on China features several issues in which Clinton said she confronted the Chinese while leading the U.S. State Department.当面对中国领先美国国务院时,她说的一段有关中国特性的几个问题 /201610/471797

It is fitting that a man who lost so much money in the casino business will meet his final showdown in Las Vegas. 对一个在生意上亏掉很多钱的人来说,在迎来最后的决战是恰当的。At this point Donald Trump’s third and final televised debate with Hillary Clinton on Wednesday the odds are stacked against him. 就目前而言——唐纳德#8226;特朗Donald Trump)将于本周三(北京时间周四)与希拉#8226;克林Hillary Clinton)进行第三轮、也是最后一轮的电视辩论——形势对特朗普不利。Having squandered his near parity with Mrs Clinton in September, Mr Trump has launched a breathtaking electoral blitzkrieg.特朗普没有把握住今年9月与希拉里几乎势均力敌的机会,但他已经发起了惊人的选举闪电战。Is it the last gamble of an undisciplined narcissist? Or does scorched-earth Mr Trump pose a threat to US democracy?这是一位不守规矩的自恋狂的最后一搏?抑或是采取焦土策略的特朗普对美国民主构成了威胁?Anyone concerned about America’s future role in the world should be relieved Mr Trump is the challenger. 任何关心美国未来在世界的角色的人都应该感到欣慰的是,特朗普是挑战者。Imagine the state of the race were he capable of staying on message. 如果他能够做到有的放矢,想象现在选情会是什么样子吧。Instead of denigrating the women who have made allegations of sexual misconduct against him, Mr Trump would be focusing on his case for Americanism versus Mrs Clinton’s globalism. 特朗普会着重阐述持美国主义的理由,来对决希拉里的全球主义,而不是贬低那些对他提出性骚扰指控的女性。He might have a serious chance of winning.那么他胜算可能很大。Those who think Mr Trump owes his likely defeat to his brand of nationalist populism should beware of drawing hasty conclusions. 那些认为特朗普因民族民粹主义标签而可能败选的人别急着下结论。The chief obstacle to Mr Trump’s victory is his character. 特朗普取胜的主要障碍是他的性格,He just cannot help himself.他只是克制不住自己。His advisers have pleaded with him to stay focused on the main themes. 他的顾问们请求他紧紧围绕主要议题。The Trump campaign’s strategy is to suppress turnout for Mrs Clinton by depicting her as a creature of internationalist corporate elites. 特朗普团队的策略是将希拉里刻画为国际主义企业精英的傀儡,从而拉低她的持率。The campaign’s other plank is to boost Mr Trump’s turnout by making the case that only a renegade outsider can fix a corrupt Washington.特朗普团队的其他策略是通过阐明只有叛逆的局外人才能解决华盛顿的腐败问题,从而提升特朗普的持率。It is a straightforward argument. 这种观点简单直接。But Mr Trump is unable to stick to it for more than a few minutes. 但特朗普对这种观点连几分钟也坚持不了。Invariably he gets drawn into horrifying tirades against his female accusers. 他总是令人震惊地长篇累牍地攻击指控他性骚扰的女性。Believe me, she would not have been my first choice, he said of one alleged victim.他在谈及一位据称遭受他侵害的女性说道:相信我,她不会是我的第一选择。As a result, he has lost the support of his party. 结果是,他失去了共和党党内的持。For the first time, the Republican National Committee is spending zero dollars on television advertising for the party’s White House nominee, according to Politico. 据Politico表示,美国共和党全国委员Republican National Committee)首次没有为该党总统候选人的电视广告出一分钱。Instead, the party’s resources are going to congressional races. 共和党把资源投向了国会选举。Likewise, its leaders have broken precedent by dissociating from their presidential candidate.同样,该党领导人史无前例地与他们的总统候选人保持距离。Most Republicans acquiesced with Mr Trump America first message. 大多数共和党人暗中同意特朗普传达的美国优先论。They also shared his revilement of Mrs Clinton as most still do. 他们也认同特朗普对希拉里的抨击——大多数人仍在继续抨击。They even tolerated the wall with Mexico. 他们甚至容忍特朗普提出的在美墨边境修建隔离墙的主张。What caused Republicans to un-endorse Mr Trump in the past week was the way in which he talks about women.在过去一周让共和党人不再为特朗普背书的是他谈论女性的方式。Yet his official message is also veering into fantastic self-parody. 然而,特朗普传达出的正式信息也在转向奇特的自我调侃。There is a powerful case to be made that Mrs Clinton stands for business as usual. 我们完全有理由说,希拉里像往常一样代表企业利益。Most Americans do not like the direction in which their country is headed. 大多数美国人不喜欢美国的走向。Most distrust Mrs Clinton. 大多数人不信任希拉里。Even now, after all that has happened, Mr Trump still attracts the support of about 40 per cent of likely voters. 即便在发生这么多事情之后,特朗普仍吸引了大约40%的潜在选民的持。Mrs Clinton’s lead is between five and nine percentage points. 希拉里领个百分点。A cardboard cut-out might have given her a run for her money. 一个硬纸板剪成的希拉里图片表明她难以轻松获胜,Mr Trump is hell-bent on playing a real live monster.而特朗普铁了心要扮演一个真正的怪物。His latest conspiracy theory could have been lifted from the Protocols of the Elders of Zion an early 20th century forgery that stirred up anti-Semitic hatred. 他最近提出的阴谋论可能模仿《锡安长老会纪要The Protocols of the Elders of Zion)——那0世纪初的伪造之作,它激发了对犹太人的仇恨。It is one thing to say that Mrs Clinton is cosy with the elites who have rigged the game in their favour. 说希拉里与操纵大选的精英们关系密切是一回事。There is plenty of truth to that. 这在很大程度上是真的。It is preposterous to claim she plots secretly with global bankers to rob America of its sovereignty. 但宣称希拉里与全球家密谋剥夺美国的主权地位就很荒唐了。In Mr Trump’s paranoid imaginings, the Clintonsco-conspirators include the Republican establishment, corporate America, neoconservatives and Pope Francis. 在特朗普的偏执型妄想中,希拉里的合谋对象包括共和党建制派、美国企业、新保守主义者以及教皇方济各(Pope Francis)。It must be a huge meeting room.会议室必须非常大才能容纳下这么多人。What will the next three weeks look like? Mr Trump’s only sliver of hope lies in an improbable string of accidents that would derail Mrs Clinton’s campaign. 接下周的情况如何?特朗普的唯一一线希望在于发生一系列让希拉里的竞选脱轨的事件,这基本上不太可胀?This might include a serious health scare. 这些事件可能包括希拉里出现严重的健康问题。If she were to collapse again in public, as she did with pneumonia last month, it would revive doubts about her stamina.如果希拉里再次当众摔倒——就像她上月因肺炎而摔倒一样——人们就会对她的精力产生怀疑。Mr Trump has laid the ground for this. 特朗普已经为此做了铺垫。On Saturday he said they should both take drugs tests before the final debate. 上周末,特朗普说,他们在最后一场辩论之前应该进行毒品测试。Likewise, if there were a Paris or Nice-scale Islamist terrorist attack in the US, it might panic swing voters into the arms of the strongman. 同样,如果美国发生巴黎或尼斯那种规模的伊斯兰恐怖袭击活动,选民们就会惊慌失措地转向持强人政治。Or if WikiLeaks revealed a bang-to-rights case of the Clintons taking money for political favours, it would boost Mr Trump’s global conspiracy.或者如果维基解WikiLeaks)据确凿地曝出希拉里接受政治献金的新闻,就会持特朗普的全球阴谋论。Even these may not be enough. 发生这些事件可能还不够。The one thing that is theoretically within Mr Trump’s control is that which is least likely to happen running a stable campaign that conveys his fitness to govern. 就理论而言,特朗普能够控制的一件事情是,按部就班地竞选,传递只有他才适合治理这个国家的信息——但这也是最不可能发生的。There is a higher chance of Mrs Clinton hosting The Apprentice. 相比之下,希拉里主持《飞黄腾达The Apprentice,又译《学徒的可能性还更大一些。Yet little comfort should be drawn from his likely demise. 然而,特朗普的可能出局应该不会带来多少慰藉。At some point a more self-possessed version of Mr Trump might pick up the baton.在某个时候,一个更有自制力的特朗普可能会捡起指挥棒。In the meantime, he is unleashing demons. 与此同时,特朗普正在放出魔鬼。Their big victim is the Republican party. 共和党深受其害。Mr Trump has exposed a weak establishment that no longer leads its rank and file, but is terrified of following it.特朗普让人们看到一个疲弱的建制派,他们不再引领基层党员,而是害怕贴近基层。The Republican Humpty Dumpty is in pieces. 笨拙臃肿的共和党成了一盘散沙。He has also opened up cracks in US democracy. 特朗普也让美国民主产生裂痕。By predicting a rigged election, Mr Trump has sown doubts about the whole system. 特朗普预测选举受到操纵,从而让人们对整个体系产生怀疑。It is a habit Mr Trump perfected with his casinos. 特朗普在他的上完善了这一习惯。He racks up huge losses. 他遭受巨亏。Everyone else is stuck with the bill.其他所有人都不得不付账单。来 /201610/472550


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