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2019年06月21日 01:05:33|来源:国际在线|编辑:赶集社区
After King Salman of Saudi Arabia came to the throne in 2015 and allowed his favourite son and deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, to seize the main reins of power in the kingdom, the country has embarked on an assertive foreign and regional policy. The ageing and frail king’s son has upstaged the crown prince and next in line of succession, interior minister Mohammed bin Nayef. That much everyone agrees. 沙特国王萨勒King Salman)2015年登上王位并让自己最喜爱的儿子、副王储穆罕默德#8226;#8226;萨勒Mohammed bin Salman)执掌王国主要权柄后,这个国家便走上了一条过分自信的外交和地区政策之路。老迈虚弱的国王的这个儿子抢走了王储及下一位继承人、内政大臣穆罕默#8226;#8226;纳伊Mohammed bin Nayef)的风头。这些是人人都认同的Prince Mohammed bin Salman has accumulated surprising power, in a system where the ruling family normally seeks a careful balance between factions. MbS, as he is known in diplomatic shorthand, aged only 30 in a regime long run by men in their 70s and 80s, is defence minister and economic tsar, as well as overlord of the closely tied areas of foreign and oil policy. 在一个统治家族通常寻求派系间平衡的体制中,穆罕默德#8226;#8226;萨勒曼亲王已经掌握了惊人的权力。在这个长期由七八十岁男性统治的政权中,只有30岁的穆罕默德#8226;#8226;萨勒曼(外交场合常缩写为MbS)既担任国防大臣,又是经济“沙皇”,同时还主导外交与石油这两个密切相联的领域的政策A linear summary of foreign and defence policy in his first year would probably highlight: the Saudi-led air war against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen launched last March; increased support for Sunni Islamist rebels fighting Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, which is backed by Iran, Hizbollah, the Lebanese Shia paramilitaries and Russia; the break-off of diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tehran; and, in recent weeks, severing ties with Saudi political, military and media allies in Lebanon. 他主导外交与国防政策第一年的突出表现包括:以沙特为首,去月对伊朗持的也门胡塞叛军进行空袭;加大对与叙利亚巴沙尔#8226;阿萨Bashar al-Assad)政权作战的逊尼派伊斯兰叛军的持力度,而阿萨德的持者包括伊朗、真主党(Hizbollah)、黎巴嫩什叶派准军事组织及俄罗斯;中断沙特与伊朗的外交关系;并在最近几周切断了沙特与黎巴嫩在政治、军事、媒体方面的盟友关系What it might skip over is the budding detente between the kingdom and Vladimir Putin’s Russia, ally to all that Saudi Arabia most detests in the region Iran, Hizbollah, and the Assad regime. 这里有可能忽略的是沙特与弗拉基米#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)执政的俄罗斯之间初现的关系缓和迹象,而俄罗斯是沙特在中东最痛恨的所有势力(伊朗、真主党、阿萨德政权)的盟友Alliances of convenience are hardly new to the Middle East. The will to power of entrenched regimes often coexists with pragmatism, making strange bedfellows of sworn enemies. But the present situation has reached unusual heights of visceral and violent antagonism in the proxy wars between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran across the region, above all in Syria. But, first, what has Saudi Arabia been up to? 对中东而言,结成“权宜联盟”并不是什么新鲜事。稳固政权的权力意志往往与实用主义并存,可以让不共戴天的仇敌变成伙伴。但当前整个地区(尤其是在叙利亚)逊尼派沙特与什叶派伊朗之间代理人战争的形势已经在出于本能的暴力对抗方面达到了不同寻常的高度。但首先,我们想问,沙特一直在忙些什么呢Riyadh is signalling a pullback from the war in Yemen. Saudi officials say they have destroyed a missile threat to the kingdom from their unruly southern neighbour. To many other eyes, it looks as if MbS bit off more than he could chew. Despite Riyadh unveiling an alliance of more than 30 Sunni nations to confront Iran’s designs, Egypt and Pakistan, which have the biggest armies, conspicuously declined to provide ground forces for the Saudi air war. In Syria, a Saudi threat to send in troops to support Sunni rebels proved empty. 利雅得正在发出从也门冲突抽身的信号。沙特官员表示,他们已将这个桀骜的南部邻国带来的导弹威胁摧毁。在许多其他人看来,穆罕默德#8226;#8226;萨勒曼似乎有些眼高手低。尽管利雅得打造了一个由30多个逊尼派国家组成的对抗伊朗的联盟,但拥有最庞大陆军的两个国家埃及和巴基斯坦都明显拒绝为沙特的空袭提供地面部队持。在叙利亚,沙特威胁出兵持逊尼派叛军也被明只是虚张声势The diplomatic break with Iran, and rupture with Lebanon, came after the Saudi execution in January of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, a dissident Shia cleric. Riyadh reacted after the Saudi embassy in Tehran and consulate in Mashhad were attacked by mobs. Lebanon’s foreign minister, a Hizbollah-aligned Christian, declined to condemn the events acting as more papist than the Pope given that the Iranian government itself did so. The Saudis have cancelled bn in aid to Lebanon’s army, stopped paying local Sunni allies and associated media, and closed the Beirut office of Al Arabiya, a TV network owned by members of the royal family. 沙特月处决了持不同政见的什叶派教士谢赫尼米#8226;尼米Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr)之后,沙特与伊朗的外交关系中断,与黎巴嫩也出现关系破裂。这是沙特驻德黑兰大使馆、驻马什哈德领事馆遭暴徒袭击后,利雅得的反应。黎巴嫩外长(一名站在真主党一边的基督徒)拒绝谴责这两起事件,要知道连伊朗政府也发出了谴责。沙特取消了对黎巴嫩军队30亿美元的援助,停止向黎巴嫩当地逊尼派盟友及相关媒体提供资金持,并关闭了沙特王室成员拥有的电视网络——阿拉伯卫星电视Al Arabiya)驻贝鲁特办事处Yet, at the same time, Prince Mohammed bin Salman has forged what Arab officials describe as a “functional and substantiverelationship with President Putin, covering Syria, possible Saudi arms purchases from and investment in Russia , and joint attempts to stabilise oil prices by freezing output. 然而,与此同时,阿拉伯官员表示,穆罕默#8226;#8226;萨勒曼亲王与普京总统之间已经建立了“起作用的、实质性的”关系,涵盖叙利亚危机、沙特有可能从俄罗斯购买武器并在俄罗斯投资,以及共同设法通过冻结产量稳定石油价格On Syria, US- and Russia-led peace efforts are still stymied by Moscow’s insistence that President Assad must be part of any transition out of war which Washington and Riyadh are ostensibly resisting. But when MbS met Mr Putin last October at the Russian Grand Prix at Sochi, he told him: “We do not care about the Assads, we care about Iran,according to an Arab official in contact with the deputy crown prince. Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said afterwards: “We now have a much clearer vision of how to move along the path of political settlement.叙利亚问题方面,美国和俄罗斯领导的和平努力仍受阻于莫斯科坚持阿萨德总统必须成为任何从战争向和平过渡进程的一部分,而华盛顿和利雅得对此都明确表示反对。但去年10月在索契举行的俄罗斯大奖Russian Grand Prix)上见到普京时,穆罕默#8226;#8226;萨勒曼对普京说,“我们并不在乎阿萨德家族,我们在乎的是伊朗,”——一位与副王储有联系的阿拉伯官员转述称。俄罗斯外交部长谢尔#8226;拉夫罗夫(Sergei Lavrov)后来表示:“关于如何推进政治解决,我们现在有了更清晰的视角。No such settlement is likely when talks on peace resume next week in Geneva. Despite Mr Putin’s partial withdrawal from Syria last month, Russia-backed Assad forces are still on the offensive not just against Saudi-backed rebels but now also against the jihadis of Isis, from whom they recaptured the city of Palmyra last week. 下周在日内瓦恢复和平谈判时,不大可能达成这样的政治解决方案。尽管普京上月从叙利亚撤出了部分军队,但得到俄罗斯持的阿萨德军队仍在发动进攻——不仅打击沙特持的叛军,如今也打击“伊斯兰国ISIS)圣战分子,并且上周从ISIS手中夺回了巴尔米拉城Some Arab sources say the Russian leader even informed MbS about his new Syrian policy before he told Mr Assad. 一些阿拉伯消息源表示,俄罗斯领导人甚至将自己新的叙利亚政策先告知穆罕默#8226;#8226;萨勒曼,然后才知会阿萨德Mr Putin may be signalling to Mr Assad that, unless he engages with evolving plans to end Syria’s war, Moscow could dump him. Russia, at the head of the Iran-backed axis in Syria and Iraq, is also now intersecting with the US-led coalition against Isis. Both coalitions are backing Syrian Kurdish militia fighting Isis across northern Syria. Russia’s ally Iran is de facto co-operating with the US in Iraq. 普京可能在暗示阿萨德,除非后者参与制订结束叙利亚内战的计划,否则莫斯科可能将他抛弃。在伊朗持的包括叙利亚和伊拉克的轴心联盟中处于领导地位的俄罗斯,如今正在与美国领导的联军共同打击ISIS。这两大联盟都持在叙利亚北部与ISIS作战的叙利亚库尔德民兵。俄罗斯的盟友伊朗实际上正在伊拉克与美国进行合作But Saudi Arabia’s warming ties with Russia surely speak of the waning regional influence of the US, with which the kingdom has been closely allied for 70 years. After Barack Obama started a thaw in US relations with Iran through last year’s nuclear deal, and Mr Putin stormed into a Syrian war the US president has sought to avoid, the Saudis seem to have decided to work with Moscow, in the belief that it can influence Tehran. Syria, in all its gore, is the cockpit of the current Middle East. 但沙特与俄罗斯关系回暖肯定会导致美国在该地区影响力减弱,而美国与沙特之间的亲密盟友关系已经延0年之久。巴拉克#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)通过去年签署的核协议开启了美国与伊朗的关系缓和,普京高调介入了奥巴马力图避免卷入的叙利亚内战,此后,沙特似乎已经决定与莫斯科合作,相信莫斯科可以影响德黑兰。饱受创伤的叙利亚仍是当前中东的斗鸡场。来 /201604/436311

A mystery over recent sightings of Chinese military vehicles patrolling inside Afghanistan deepened last week as Beijing denied its troops were in Afghanistan but confirmed it was undertaking “joint counter-terrorism operationswith Kabul.近期,有人看到中国军车在阿富汗境内巡逻。上周,此事引发的谜团有所加深——中国否认其军队在阿富汗境内,但实了中国正与阿富汗执行“联合反恐行动”。The disclosure comes as China steps up its involvement with its western neighbour amid a gradual withdrawal by US forces from the war-ravaged country.上述消息传来之际,随着美国军队逐渐撤出饱受战争蹂躏的阿富汗,中国开始加大对这个西部邻国的介入力度。Ren Guoqiang, a spokesman for the Peoples Liberation Army, was asked about reports of Chinese troops inside Afghanistan at a defence ministry press conference on Thursday. He flatly denied any military involvement but said that “the law enforcement authorities of the two sides have conducted joint law enforcement operations in border areas to fight against terrorism according to an official transcript of the remarks made available Friday.在上周四举行的中国国防部记者会上,国防部新闻发言人任国强被问及有关中国军队出现在阿富汗境内的报道。根据上周五公布的官方文字实录,任国强断然否认了任何军事介入,但他表示,“中阿两国执法部门确实根据双方的执法合作协议在边境地区开展了联合执法行动,目的是共同打击恐怖主义”。“The report that the Chinese military patrolled in Afghanistan is false,he said. An effort Friday to clarify whether there were any Chinese non-military patrols on the Afghan side of the border was met with the same response.“有的外国媒体报道中国军队车辆进入阿富汗境内巡逻,这与事实不符,”他说。上周五,记者要求澄清在中阿边境的阿富汗一侧是否有中国非军事力量参与巡逻时,得到了相同的回答。Col Ren was referring to a number of eyewitness reports and photos appearing to show Chinese military vehicles patrolling inside Afghanistan in recent months.任国强上校针对的是一些目击者的说法,以及似乎显示最近几个月阿富汗境内有中国军用车辆在巡逻的照片。The first photos were published on November 3, when Wion, an Indian news website, reported the presence of Chinese military vehicles in the Wakhan corridor, a mountainous strip of land between the Pamir and Karakoram mountain ranges that extends all the way to the border with China.第一张照片发表于去年11日,当时印度新闻网站Wion报道称,中国军用车辆出现在帕米尔高原和喀喇昆仑山脉之间的山谷地带——瓦Wakhan)走廊。该走廊一直延伸至中阿边界。In February, the Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, a think-tank, published a report citing “overwhelming evidenceincluding statements of diplomats, as well as an unnamed Chinese official, that Chinese troops were patrolling inside Afghanistan, though the article also cited a denial by Sediq Sediqi, a spokesman for Afghanistan’s ministry of internal affairs.2月,智库Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst发表了一份援引“压倒性据”的报告,其中包括一些外交官和一位未具名中国官员的说法,称中国军队在阿富汗境内巡逻。不过,这篇文章也引用了阿富汗内政部发言人塞迪克?塞迪Sediq Sediqi)的否认说法。Justin Bronk, an analyst at the Royal ed Services Institute in London, said that a denial by Beijing that the Chinese military was involved might not rule out a military-style operation by police. “Clearly in a place like Afghanistan, law enforcement and military patrols are rather blurred termshe said.位于伦敦的英国皇家联合军种研究院(Royal ed Services Institute)的分析师贾斯布朗Justin Bronk)说,北京方面对于中国军队介入的否认,可能并不排除使用警力展开军事性行动的可能性。“很显然,在像阿富汗这种地方,执法和军事巡逻这两个说法之间的界限相当模糊,”他说。He said published photos of the alleged patrols showed two types of Chinese vehicles the Dongfeng EQ 2050, similar to the US Humvee, and the Norinco VP 11, a mine resistant vehicle. Both are military vehicles, said Mr Bronk, but could be used in a law enforcement capacity.布朗克表示,公布的所谓巡逻照片显示了两种中国车辆——类似于美国军用悍马(Humvee)的东风猛士EQ2050越野车以及北方工业公Norinco)的VP 11防雷越野车。他说,两者都是军用车辆,但可以用于执法行动。If an agreement on joint patrolling exists, it would not the first such arrangement of extraterritorial law enforcement that China has with a border state. Since December 2011, China, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand have completed dozens of joint police patrols on the Mekong river, aiming to crack down on crime in the region. Those patrols follow the brutal murder of 13 Chinese sailors on a stretch of the Mekong by suspected drug smugglers in Oct 2011.如果存在关于联合巡逻的协议,那么这不是中国首次与邻国达成的境外执法安排。自20112月以来,中国、老挝、缅甸和泰国已在湄公河地区完成了数十次联合警察巡逻,旨在打击该地区的犯罪活动。在巡逻之前的20110月,涉嫌走私毒品者在湄公河地区残忍地杀害了13名中国船员。The motivations for China to deepen its involvement in Afghanistan are several. Beijing fears contagion from Islamic extremism, while Chinese companies also hold key mining and hydrocarbons concessions across Afghanistan.中国更深介入阿富汗事务的动机有很多个。北京方面害怕伊斯兰极端主义势力的蔓延,而中国企业也在阿富汗境内拥有关键的采矿和碳氢化合物特许经营权。“Chinas main focus is counter-terrorism,said Andrew Small, an expert on China at the German Marshall Fund. He added that the Turkistan Islamic Party, a separatist organisation that China has linked to terror attacks, was believed to have its headquarters in Badakhshan, the Afghan province neighbouring China.“中国的主要焦点是反恐怖主义,”德国马歇尔基金German Marshall Fund)中国问题专家安德斯莫Andrew Small)表示。他接着说,中国认定分裂主义组织突厥斯坦伊斯兰党(Turkistan Islamic Party,又称“东突厥斯坦伊斯兰运动”,中文简称:东伊运)跟恐怖袭击有关联,据信该组织的总部设在阿富汗与中国相邻的省份巴达赫尚省(Badakhshan)。Often accused of being a “free riderthat benefits from the security provided by US forces in Afghanistan, China has also been forced to respond to the likelihood of an eventual US withdrawal from the country.中国的动机还包括应对美国最终撤出阿富汗的可能性。人们常常指责中国是驻阿美军提供的安全保护的“免费搭车者”。“It’s impossible to see what China is doing outside the context of the US drawdown, which forced China, reluctantly, to face up to the fact that it will have to take on greater responsibility for security in its western periphery,said Mr Small.“如果去掉美国撤军的背景,就不可能理解中国在做什么。美国撤军迫使中国不情愿地面对一个事实,即它必须对西部周边的安全承担更大责任,”斯莫尔说。In 2014 former US President Barack Obama announced that US forces would leave Afghanistan by the end of his term in office, though due to the worsening security environment 8,400 have stayed on since a partial drawdown was completed in December.2014年,时任美国总统的巴拉克?奥巴Barack Obama)宣布,美国驻军将在他任期结束前撤离阿富汗。不过,由于安全环境的恶化,去年12月完成部分撤军以后,400人一直未撤走。来 /201702/494593

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