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During the cold war, military might and economic clout were the measures of power that mattered. Today in an increasingly interdependent world, among states where use of direct force against one another is all but unthinkable connections are equally important. The most connected states, wielding influence and controlling information flows, are more useful for making things happen in the world than those that simply possess enormous armies. 在冷战时期,军事实力和经济影响力是衡量国家实力的关键指标。如今,联系同样关键——在一个日益相互依存的世界里,各国之间直接动武几乎是不可想象的。与那些只是拥有庞大军队的国家相比,能够施加影响并控制信息流动、对外联系最多的国家更能成事Global flows of goods, services, finance, people and data “play an ever-larger role in determining the fate of nations, companies and individuals according to the McKinsey consultancy, which measures these factors in its “connectednessindex. “To be unconnected is to fall behind.Singapore, a small, open economy at the heart of global shipping and finance flows, comes top of the list the Netherlands, the US, Germany, Ireland and the UK follow. 咨询公司麦肯McKinsey)表示,全球商品、务、资金、人员和数据流动在决定国家、公司和个人的命运方面“扮演着越来越大的角色”。麦肯锡在其“联系度”指数中对这些因素进行了衡量。“孤立就会落后”。处于全球航运和资金流动核心的小型开放经济体新加坡名列榜首,荷兰、美囀?德囀?爱尔兰和英国紧随其后Energy still plays a big part in determining connectedness. As long as specific Middle Eastern countries are at the centre of the world’s energy flows, they exercise power over other nations vastly disproportionate to their geographical size or military and economic weight. The Opec countries proved this point in the 1970s, when energy production was much more concentrated. Today, Saudi Arabia is refusing to allow a deal to freeze oil production unless its regional rival, Iran, agrees to sign up. 能源仍然在决定联系度方面占据重要位置。只要中东国家仍处于全球能源流动的核心,它们就能够对其他国家施加与自身国土面积或者军事和经济实力极不匹配的影响力。在能源生产集中度高得多的上世纪70年代,欧佩克(OPEC)国家明了这一点。如今,沙特拒绝达成冻结石油生产的协议,除非其地区竞争对手伊朗同意签署协议In the next decade, however, influence over global digital flows will grow far more important. We will see the development of sophisticated tools to impose digital sanctions, blocking some commerce, information and communication but allowing the rest. 然而,在下一个十年,对全球数字流动的影响力将变得重要得多。我们将会看到复杂工具被开发出来,用来施加数字制裁,封锁一些贸易、信息和通讯,但允许其余的贸易、信息流动和通讯进行Meanwhile, the lens of connectedness offers a useful perspective on the debate over British membership of the EU. Brexit advocates want to make Britain an island on the edge of the union once more close enough to claim the benefits of connectedness but with sufficient autonomy to be truly sovereign. In fact, the connectedness index shows that the status quo provides highly beneficial codependence for both parties. 与此同时,从联系度的角度来看待英国退欧辩论,是一个有益的视角。主张英国退欧的人希望让英国再次成为欧盟(EU)边缘的一座岛屿——足够靠近以享受联系的益处,但又有足够的自治权,从而成为真正的主权国家。实际上,联系度指数表明,维持现状带来的相互依赖对双方都非常有利When the scores of all the member states are combined, the EU as a whole ranks third in the connectedness index, behind Singapore and the US. Without Britain the EU27 ranks fourth; Britain without the EU ranks third. 当综合所有成员国的得分的时候,欧盟在联系度指数中整体排名第三,落后于新加坡和美囀?不包括英国在内的欧7个成员国排名第四;脱离欧盟的话,英国排名第三The reason is that so many of the EU27’s flows are within the union: 45 per cent of goods trade; 52 per cent of services trade; 62 per cent of foreign direct investment flows; 72 per cent of people flows; and 77 per cent of data flows. The UK presents almost the opposite profile: 70 per cent of UK trade flows are with the rest of the world, outside the EU; 86 per cent of services trade; 63 per cent of FDI flows; and 62 per cent of people flows. So membership allows Britain to participate fully in the intra-union flows that create the world’s largest economy; and provides the EU27 with a vital link to the rest of the world. 理由是,欧盟27国中有许多流动是在联盟内部发生的5%的商品贸易2%的务贸易2%的外国直接投FDI)流动2%的人员流动,以及77%的数据流动。英国的情况几乎完全相反0%的商品贸易流动6%的务贸易3%的外国直接投资流动以2%的人员流动是在英国与欧盟以外的其他国家之间发生的。因此欧盟成员国身份使得英国可以完全参与联盟内部流动——这些流动创造了全球最大的经济体——并为欧7国提供了与全球其他国家的关键联系The picture is much the same in diplomacy. As US President Barack Obama explained in his recent interview with The Atlantic, much of his foreign policy has been aimed at substituting diplomacy for force as the principal tool for getting things done in the world. His engagement, for example, has prevented Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. 外交方面的情况同样如此。正如美国总统巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)最近在接受《大西洋The Atlantic)采访时解释的那样,他的许多对外政策的目的是用外交取代武力,作为在国际上促成事情的主要工具。例如,他的接触策略已经阻止了伊朗获得核武器Diplomacy is social capital; it depends on the density and reach of a nation’s diplomatic contacts. The Global Diplomacy Index, just published by Australia’s Lowy Institute for International Policy, ranks nations by the number of embassies, consulates and missions they have. The US comes first, then France, China and Russia then the UK, ahead of the other EU states. 外交是社会资本;它依赖于一国外交联系的深度和广度。澳大利亚洛伊国际政策研究所(Lowy Institute for International Policy)刚刚发布的全球外交指Global Diplomacy Index)按照各国拥有的大使馆、领事馆和使团的数量进行了排名。美国排名第一,随后是法国、中国和俄罗斯,接下来是英国,排在其他欧盟国家之前As part of Europe, Britain has the benefit of consulates and missions in many cities where it is not now represented. Given that the Foreign Office budget has fallen by almost 20 per cent in the past five years, tapping into this network matters. Once again, however, the EU would suffer from a British exit, losing the benefit of some of the world’s most talented diplomats. 作为欧洲的一部分,目前英国虽然在许多城市没有派驻使节,但仍同样享受有领事馆和使团的益处。鉴于英国外交部预算在过年里下降了近20%,利用这种网络至关重要。然而,欧盟同样将因英国退出而受损,不再享受拥有一些全球最有天赋的外交官的益处In sum, if connectedness is indeed a critical measure of 21st-century power, Britain and the EU would both lose substantially from Brexit. John Donne knew this 400 years ago. Everyone knows the line, “No man is an island Few remember the next words from his Devotions Upon Emergent Occasions. “Every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main; if a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less.总之,如果联系度真的1世纪实力的关键指标,英国和欧盟全都将因英国退欧而损失巨大。约#8226;多恩(John Donne)400年前就知道这一点。所有人都知道“谁都不是一座岛屿”这句诗,但很少有人记得多恩的祈祷文集《丧钟为谁而鸣:生死边缘的沉思录Devotions Upon Emergent Occasions)中接下来的文字。“每个人都是欧洲大陆的一小块,那本土的一部分;如果一块泥巴被海浪冲掉,欧洲就小了一”If British membership of the EU be washed away, the clod and the continent will both be diminished. Joined together, and connected to the rest of the world, they are mighty. 如果英国真的退欧,英国和欧洲都将被削弱。两者合在一起,并与其他国家紧密联系,它们都将是强大的。来 /201604/438554

Saudi Arabia is raising production and pressing ahead with a global expansion plan for its state oil company ahead of what could be the world’s largest ever stock market listing.沙特阿拉伯正在提高石油产量,并加紧推进其国有石油企业的全球扩张计划,为可能是全球史上规模最大的股票上市做准备。In some of the first comments on -Riyadh’s oil policy since a government reshuffle at the weekend, Amin Nasser, Saudi Aramco chief executive, emphasised the company’s willingness to compete with rivals, putting on notice rival oil producers from regional adversary Iran to the US shale sector.自上周末沙特政府改组后,沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司(Saudi Aramco,简称沙特阿美)首席执行官阿#8226;纳赛Amin Nasser)对本国政府的石油政策首次作出,他强调该公司愿意与对手竞争,此言向所有产油对手发出警告,包括地区竞争对手伊朗及美国页岩产业。“Whatever the call on Saudi Aramco, we will meet it,he said during a rare media visit to the group’s headquarters in Dhahran. “There will always be a need for additional production. Production will increase in 2016.”阿#8226;纳赛尔在达兰(Dhahran)沙特阿美总部对该公司罕见安排来访的媒体表示:“无论沙特阿美面对什么样的号召,我们都会去响应。总是会有额外产量的需要016年产量将会增加。”The industry is watching for any shifts in Saudi policy or crude output after the kingdom on Sunday replaced Alial-Naimi, the veteran oil minster, after more than two decades in office. Mohammed bin Salman, deputy crown prince, has hinted that Riyadh could easily accelerate output to more than 11m barrels a day as Iran tries to attract customers after years of sanctions.上周日沙特换下了任职0年的元老级石油部长阿里#8226;纳伊Ali al-Naimi),业内人士正在观察沙特政策或原油产量会发生何种变化。副王储穆罕默德#8226;#8226;萨勒Mohammed bin Salman)已经暗示,在多年制裁被解除的伊朗试图吸引客户之际,沙特可以轻松地将产出增至每日100万桶。Saudi Aramco, which pumps more than one in every eight barrels of crude globally, is at the centre of a reform programme being pushed by Prince Mohammed, who has emerged as the man holding the levers of power in Saudi Arabia. He believes a planned -initial public offering of less than 5 per cent of the company could value Saudi Aramco at more than tn.全球桶原油就有一桶以上产自沙特阿美,该公司是穆罕默德正在推动的改革计划的核心。穆罕默德已经掌握了沙特阿拉伯的实权,他认为将沙特阿美不%的股份按计划首次公开发行(IPO)后,该公司估值可超过2万亿美元。The reform plan Vision 2030 aims to end the country’s dependence on oil within 15 years, leveraging the assets of the state oil company to fund wide-ranging investments to diversify its economy.题为《愿030Vision 2030)的改革计划旨5年内结束沙特对石油的依赖,充分利用这家国有石油公司的资产以资助广泛投资,实现经济多元化。Saudi Arabia’s new oil minister Khalid al-Falih, former chief executive and -current chairman of Aramco, spoke of “stabilityin the kingdom’s oil policy on his first day in the job, but he also indicated a willingness use the country’s “maximum sustainable capacityto meet customer demand.沙特阿拉伯新任石油部长哈立德#8226;法立Khalid al-Falih)上任第一天即表示,沙特石油政策维持“稳定”,但他也表明愿意利用该国“最大可持续产能”满足客户需求。哈立德#8226;法立赫曾任沙特阿美首席执行官,现为该公司董事长。Last year Saudi Arabia’s crude output averaged 10.2m b/d, Mr Nasser said, the highest annual level on record. Any increase in 2016 could supplant high-cost output in other parts of the world, which has started to decline after almost two years of falling prices.沙特阿美现任首席执行官纳赛尔表示,去年沙特阿拉伯日均原油产量020万桶,为有记录以来最高年度水平016年沙特如果增产,就会挤压其他地区的高成本生产;经过近两年的油价下跌,其他地区产量已开始下降 /201605/442975

India will overtake the ed States as the worlds second-largest economy by 2050 according to a newly published report.根据一份新发布的报告,印度将在2050年取代美国成为世界第二大经济体。Experts at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) claimed emerging economies such as India China Brazil and Russia will boom at the expense of the advanced G7 nations such as the ed States Britain France and Germany.普华永道的专家声称,新兴经济体(印度、中囀?巴西和俄罗斯等)将以先进的G7国家(美囀?英囀?法国和德国等)为代价,繁荣发展。The report The long view: how will the global economic order change by 2050? compares 32 countries by ranking their GDP and Purchasing Power Parity which assesses the standard of living in each country and what people can buy on an average wage.报告《长期观点:050年全球经济秩序将如何改变?》比较了32个国家,将它们的GDP(国内生产总值)和PPP(购买力平价,用于评估每个国家的生活水平,以及在平均工资水平人们的购买力)进行了排名。According to PwC: China has aly overtaken the US to be largest economy based on GDP in PPP terms and could be the largest valued at market exchange rates before 2030.根据普华永道(的报告):”基于购买力平价(PPP)的国内生产总值(GDP),中国已经超越美国成为最大经济体,而如果根据市场汇率进行计算的话,中国将在2030年前成为世界第一。India could overtake the US by 2050 to go into 2nd place and Indonesia could move into 4th place by 2050 overtaking advanced economies like Japan and Germany.”在2050年,印度可能会超过美国成为第2,而印度尼西亚可能会移至第4,超过诸如日本和德国之类的发达经济体。By 2050 six of the seven largest economies in the world could be emerging markets.Russia will be the largest economy in Europe by 2050 according to the report.报告还指出,050年,世界7大经济体中的6个可能都是新兴市场。而俄罗斯将成为欧洲最大的经济体。“来 /201702/491494The US has formally accused the Russian government of attempting to meddle in November’s presidential election and blamed Russia for a series of cyber attacks, including the hacking of the Democratic National Committee.美国正式指控俄罗斯政府企图干1月的总统大选,并将一系列网络攻击归咎于俄罗斯,其中包括民主党全国委员DNC)遭黑客入侵事件。In a joint statement, the Department of Homeland Security and Director of National Intelligence on Election Security said it was now “confident that the Russian government directed the recent compromises of emails from US persons and institutions, including from US political organisations美国国土安全Homeland Security Department)和负责选举安全的国家情报总监(Director of National Intelligence)在联合声明中表示,现已“确定俄罗斯政府主导了最近美国人民、机构乃至美国政治组织遭到的邮件入侵事件。”“These theft and disclosures are intended to interfere with the US election process. Such activity is not new to Moscow,US authorities said. “We believe, based on the scope and sensitivity of these efforts, that only Russia’s senior-most officials could have authorised these activities.”美国当局表示:“这些偷窃和泄露行为旨在干扰美国选举过程,俄罗斯政府对此类活动并不陌生。我们认为,基于这些行动的范围和敏感性,只有俄罗斯的最高级官员能够授权这些活动。”On Friday night, President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman dismissed the US allegations. “This is again some kind of nonsense,Dmitry Peskov told Russian news agency Interfax. “[Our] website experiences tens of thousands of attacks by hackers every day.”周五晚间,俄罗斯总统弗拉基米#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)的发言人驳斥了美国这一指控。德米特#8226;巴斯科夫(Dmitry Peskov)向俄罗斯通讯社国际文传电讯社(Interfax)表示:“(我们的)网站每天都遭到黑客数万次攻击。”The US has alleged that the hacking fits into patterns of other cyber attacks in Eurasia and Europe, as all were attempts to “influence public opinion美国声称这些网络攻击与欧亚大陆和欧洲遭到的网络攻击模式相符,它们都企图“影响公众舆论”。A breach of the Democratic National Committees emails and servers this year led to 20,000 internal emails being leaked on the eve of the Democratic convention, with many of the exchanges embarrassing. The DNC’s then chairwoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz resigned in the wake of the scandal, along with a handful of senior DNC staffers.今年民主党全国委员会的电子邮件和务器入侵事件,导致2万封电子邮件在民主党全国代表大会前夕遭到泄露,其中包含许多尴尬内容。这桩丑闻发生后,民主党全国委员会时任主席黛#8226;沃瑟#8226;舒尔Debbie Wasserman Schultz)连同几名资深员工宣布辞职。In a separate cyber attack, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was hacked, resulting in Democratic lawmakers mobile phone numbers and other personal information being leaked to the public.民主党国会竞选委员会(Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee)也受到网络攻击,导致民主党议员手机号码及其他个人信息被泄露给公众。In addition to blaming those two attacks on Russia, the US also said that some states had seen an increase in scanning and probing of their election related systems, suggesting that hackers may be trying to tamper with the actual US ballot machines.除了将上述两起攻击归咎于俄罗斯外,美国还表示国内有些州已观察到其选举相关系统受到的扫描和探测在增加,表明黑客可能在试图篡改美国的选票机。The US said it was not currently “in a position to attribute this activity to the Russian government But it also noted that the hacking activity appeared to originate on servers located in Russia. 美国表示目前还不能“将这一行为归咎于俄罗斯政府”,但它同时注意到这些黑客活动似乎起源于俄罗斯的务器。The US said that it would be “extremely difficult for someone, including a nation-state actor, to alter actual ballot counts or election results by cyber attack or intrusion citing the decentralised nature of the US election system and protections in place at the state and local level.美国以其选举制度的分散性以及国家及地方受到的保护为例,表示“对于个人,包括国家行为体来说,通过网络攻击或入侵来改变实际投票数或选举结果都是极其困难的”。来 /201610/469676

Now we can be sure. 现在我们可以确定了。Donald Trump will never tack to the middle. 唐纳#8226;特朗Donald Trump)永远不会向中间立场靠拢。Let Trump be Trump, is his team’s new motto, which is baffling since he has not tried anything else. 让特朗普做他自己,是其团队新的座右铭。这句话让人摸不着头脑,因为他从未尝试其它策略。By recruiting Stephen Bannon of Breitbart News, the far right conservative website, to run his campaign, Mr Trump has banished whatever doubts still lingered: his White House bid is chiefly about inciting white resentment. 通过聘请极右翼保守派网站Breitbart News的斯蒂芬#8226;班农(Stephen Bannon),特朗普打消了一切尚存的疑虑:他的竞选策略主要是煽动白人的怨恨。For the next 10 weeks, he will trigger every dark fear he can find. 在接下来的竞选阶段,他将唤醒他找得到的所有黑暗恐惧。It has been more than a generation since Richard Nixon ended America’s long national nightmare by resigning the presidency. Mr Trump’s version still has a way to go. 自理查德#8226;尼克Richard Nixon)以辞去总统之位来终结美国漫长的国家噩梦以来,已经过去了40多年。特朗普版的噩梦还将延续很久。There is little reason to think it would come to an end if he lost.如果他竞选失败了,我们也没什么理由认为这一切会随之结束。The former reality television star’s debt to Nixon is as much about psychology as ideology. 这位前真人秀明星与尼克松相像的地方既有意识形态层面的,也有心理学层面的。America’s 37th president collected resentments like philatelists do stamps. 身为美国7届总统的尼克松收集怨恨就像集邮家收集邮票。Nixon never met a grudge he did not want to nurse. 尼克松从未遇到过他不想耿耿于怀的愤怒。Roger Ailes, the disgraced founder of Fox News, made his name by training Nixon to smile more and treat TV as his friend in his winning 1968 campaign. 福克斯新Fox News)不光的创始人罗#8226;艾尔Roger Ailes)当年成名,就是因为他968年总统竞选中训练尼克松增加微笑、把电视当作自己的朋友,最后赢得大选。It is no coincidence that Mr Ailes is now coaching Mr Trump for his televised debates with Hillary Clinton. 并非巧合的是,艾尔斯现在指导特朗普与希拉#8226;克林Hillary Clinton)进行电视辩论。He has his work cut out. 他的任务十分艰巨。Mr Trump may have borrowed Nixon’s 1968 playbook by running a fear-based campaign that appeals to law and order. 特朗普或许会借鉴尼克968年的剧本,搞一场以恐惧为本的竞选,呼吁法律和秩序。But today’s silent majority is way less white than it was back then. 但是如今沉默的多数派中的白人比例远不及当初。As an electoral strategy, Mr Trump’s campaign is flirting with suicide.以此作为竞选策略,特朗普无异于玩火。Yet it works as a media strategy. 不过,作为媒体策略,该策略行得通。Nixon believed people respond to fear rather than love. 尼克松认为,能唤起人们反应的是恐惧,而不是爱。They don’t teach that in Sunday school but it’s true, he said. 他们不会在主日学校教这些——但这是事实,他表示。He also harboured a deep hatred of the elites the professors, Ivy Leaguers and experts whom Spiro Agnew, his vice-president, called the effete core of impudent snobs. 他还对精英群体——被他的副总统斯皮#8226;阿格Spiro Agnew)称为无耻势利小人的软弱核心的教授、常青藤毕业生和专家——怀有深深的仇恨。Mr Trump is surrounded by people with the same Nixonian grievances. 特朗普的周围也尽是怀有尼克松式不满的人。His first mentor, Roy Cohn, the legendary New York lawyer, advised people that you should know the judge not the law. 他的第一个导师、具有传奇色的纽约律师罗伊#8226;科恩(Roy Cohn)曾发表高见称,与其了解法律,你还不如了解法官。Roger Stone, Mr Trump’s oldest friend with whom he speaks daily, believes hate is a stronger motivator than love. 特朗普每天都会交谈的的老朋友罗#8226;斯Roger Stone)认为,仇恨是比爱更强烈的动机。Paul Manafort, the former Trump campaign manager, who resigned on Friday, made his fortune as an adviser to paranoid strongmen around the world. 上月辞职的特朗普前竞选经理保#8226;马纳福特(Paul Manafort)凭借为世界各地的偏执狂强人担任顾问而起家。Mr Bannon’s website is dominated by conspiracy theories. 班农的网站充斥着各种阴谋论。Now he has a golden chance to turn his paranoia into a presidential campaign. 如今他得到了一个黄金机会,可以把他的偏执狂转化为总统竞选策略。What will it look like?那会是什么样的?Nixon’s ghost was aly visible in the Trump campaign’s content. 尼克松的魅影已经在特朗普的竞选内容中浮现。Unlike Ronald Reagan, Nixon was happy with big government he added more federal agencies than any president since. 与罗纳德#8226;里根(Ronald Reagan)不同,尼克松喜欢大政府——他增设的联邦机构超过之后任何一届总统。Mr Trump’s success with white middle-class voters derives partly from his pledge to leave federal entitlements, such as social security, in place. 特朗普成功赢得白人中产阶级选民的持,部分源自于他承诺保联邦福利,比如社会保障制度。Unlike Reagan, Nixon pursued a foreign policy based more on national interest than American values. 与里根不同,尼克松奉行的外交政策更多地是基于国家利益,而非美国价值观。Such pragmatism en-abled him to override the anti-communist hawks and do the historic deal with Mao’s China. 这样的务实主义使他得以顶住反对共产党的鹰派,与毛泽东主政的中国达成历史性协议。Mr Trump’s admiration for autocrats, such as Russian president Vladimir Putin and even North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, shows a similar disregard for US sensibilities. 特朗普对威权领导人——比如俄罗斯总统弗拉基米#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)、甚至朝鲜的金正Kim Jong Un)——的敬佩,展现了类似的对美国情怀的漠视。But it was Nixon’s cultural message, the stoking of white middle-class anger, that really feeds Mr Trump. 但是,真正滋养特朗普的是尼克松的文化信息——点燃白人中产阶级的愤怒。It will increasingly dominate what remains of his campaign.这将日益主导特朗普余下的竞选之路。Is there any way it could succeed? This is where Mr Trump and Nixon part company. 该策略可能成功吗?这便是特朗普和尼克松有所不同的地方。The latter was the political genius of his age. 后者是他那个时代的政治天才。Nixon certainly cashed in on white resentment against the civil rights reforms of the 1960s. 尼克松当然利用了白人对上世纪60年代民权改革的怨恨。But even at the peak of his southern strategy, he was careful never to express clear racist views. 但即便是在他南方战略的巅峰时期,他也小心翼翼地从不表达裸的种族主义观点。Mr Trump can barely finish a sentence without offending some ethnic group. 而特朗普几乎没有哪句话是不冒犯某个少数族裔的。Nixon also pivoted to the centre after winning the Republican nomination. 在赢得共和党总统提名后,尼克松转向了中间立场。Mr Trump is doing the opposite. 特朗普截然相反。Not only is Mr Trump moving further to the extreme for the general election a tactic for which there is no precedent in US presidential contests he also mocks standard practice, such as setting up professional operations in the swing states. 他在迎接大选之际进一步走向极端——该策略在美国总统竞选中是史无前例的——还嘲笑常规惯例,比如在摇摆州建立专业竞选运作。Mr Bannon, like Mr Manafort, has no campaign experience. 和马纳福特一样,班农也没有竞选经验。Mr Trump is an outsider, advised by outsiders, appealing to voters who see themselves as outsiders. 特朗普是个局外人,其顾问是局外人,吸引的选民自认为是局外人。Nixon would be aghast. 尼克松对此会感到错愕。This is not how you win elections.这不是赢得竞选的方式。But it is a great way to leverage your brand. 但是,这是一个品牌运作的极好方式。Many have doubted whether Mr Trump really expected to win the Republican nomination, let alone have a shot at the presidency. 很多人都怀疑特朗普是否真的期待过自己能赢得共和党提名,更不用说有机会迎接大选了。They suspected his candidacy was just another way of boosting the Trump name. 他们猜测,特朗普竞选总统只是另一种推广其品牌的方式。In the process, Mr Trump found a huge market of people who respond to white identity politics. 在竞选过程中,特朗普发现了白人身份认同政治的巨大市场。In their view, Fox News has become the establishment. 在这个白人群体看来,福克斯新Fox News)已经成为体制的一部分。Its ousted founder, Mr Ailes, is at a loose end. 该机构被驱逐的创始人艾尔斯现在闲着。Mr Trump has 11m Twitter followers, which is a multiple of Fox’s nightly audience. 特朗普在Twitter上拥100万粉丝,是福克斯夜间观众的数倍。What better response to defeat than to monetise your base by launching a Trump News Channel? Stranger things have happened. 面对失败,有什么能比从你的持者获益——开设特朗普新闻频道——更好的回应方式吗?更奇怪的事都发生了。Such a venture would convert all those resentments into hard cash. 这样的项目将把所有那些怨恨转化为现金。As a media baron, Mr Trump could also play chief thorn in the side of Mrs Clinton’s administration.作为媒体大亨,特朗普还可以扮演希拉里政府首席刺儿头的角色。There would be a certain poetry to that. 这种局面将有一些诗意。Mrs Clinton worked as a legal aide to the Watergate committee that brought down Nixon. 当年希拉里在迫使尼克松下台的水门事件调查委员会中担任法律助理。All politics is personal in Mr Trump’s world. 在特朗普的世界里,一切政治都是个人层面的。What more fitting way of completing the circle than avenging the ghost of Nixon?还有什么能比为尼克松的魅影报仇更适合的方式来完成这个轮回呢? /201609/465594WASHINGTON President Barack Obama has started initiatives to study the brain and gene-based diseases. He has led attacks on the Ebola virus and antibiotic resistance. Last month, he wrote an academic article in a prominent medical journal.华盛顿——美国总统贝拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)发起了研究大脑和遗传类疾病的计划。他领导着针对埃拉病毒和抗生素耐药性的攻坚战。上个月,他还在一本一流医学期刊上发表了一篇学术论文。But the science event many in the White House remember most powerfully was the kid with the marshmallow cannon.但对白宫许多人而言,最令人印象深刻的科学事件,要数那个带来了棉花糖大炮的小男孩。“So would it, like, hit the wall up there?Obama asked during the 2012 White House Science Fair when he came upon Joey Hudy, 14, standing before his homemade Extreme Marshmallow Cannon.“那么,它会击中那边的墙壁吗?”在2012年的白宫科学White House Science Fair)上遇4岁的乔伊·胡迪(Joey Hudy)时,奥巴马这样问道。胡迪当时站在自己制作的“超级棉花糖大炮”前。“Yeah,Joey answered.“是的,”胡迪回答。“Would it stick?”“它会黏在上边吗?”“I don’t know.”“我不知道。”“Let’s try it,Obama said with glee.“让我们试试吧,”奥巴马兴高采烈地说道。And so, for what may have been the first time since the British burned the house down in 1814, a fast-moving projectile hit the State Dining Room wall. The marshmallow did not stick.于是,一枚高速射出的炮弹击中了国宴厅的墙壁——自英国人在1814年火烧白宫之后,这种事或许还是第一次发生。棉花糖炮弹并未黏在墙上。Obama has changed in many ways since winning the presidency. His hair is speckled with gray. He is more skeptical of military solutions to intractable foreign problems. His teenage daughters, he has said many times, no longer think he is cool.赢得总统大选以后,奥巴马在很多方面都发生了变化。他的头发染上了霜华。他愈发怀疑能否以军事手段解决棘手的外交问题。再有,他说过好些遍,两个十几岁的女儿再也不觉得他有多酷了。But another change that has received far less attention has been Obama’s embrace of science.但还有一个关注度小得多的变化,那就是奥巴马开始涉足科学领域。He began an annual tradition of science fairs, arguing that if he celebrates the nation’s top athletes at the White House, he should do the same for the best young scientific talent. He often mentions the students he has met at the fairs, including Elana Simon, who at age 12 survived a rare form of liver cancer and before graduating high school helped discover its genetic cause.他创立了每年举办科学展的传统,他的理由是,既然他会在白宫祝贺美国的顶级运动员,就应当为最优秀的年轻科学人才做同样的事情。他经常提及自己在科学展上遇到的学生,其中包括埃莱娜·西蒙(Elana Simon),她2岁时成为一种罕见肝癌的幸存者,并在高中毕业前帮助发现了这种疾病的遗传基因。Obama’s presidential science advisory committee has been the most active in history, starting 34 studies of subjects as varied as advanced manufacturing and cybersecurity. Scientists on the committee said they worked so hard because Obama was deeply engaged in their work.奥巴马总统的科学顾问委员会是有史以来最活跃的,总共启动4项研究,涉及从尖端制造技术和网络安全的多种课题。该委员会的科学家说,他们如此勤奋工作是因为奥巴马深度参与其中。In a recent interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, Obama listed science as one of the few subjects he intends to pursue after the presidency.近日接受《彭商业周刊Bloomberg Businessweek)采访时,奥巴马表示,科学是他在总统任期结束后想要追寻的几个目标之一。“The conversations I have with Silicon Valley and with venture capital pull together my interests in science and organization in a way I find really satisfying,Obama said. Of the potential breakthroughs in genomic sequencing, “That’s just an example of something I can sit and listen and talk to folks for hours about,he said.“通过与硅谷人士以及一些风险资本家交谈,我对科学和组织的兴趣被点燃了,这让我有一种真正的满足感,”奥巴马说。谈及基因测序取得突破的可能性,他说,“这就是那种可以让我坐下来倾听和交谈几个小时的话题。”Obama has always loved science fiction he was a “Star Trekfan as a kid, and grew up ing comic books like “Spider-Man.His favorite movie last year was “The Martian,according to the White House.奥巴马一直都很喜欢科幻小说——他从小就是《星际迷航Star Trek)的拥趸。《蜘蛛侠Spider-Man)之类的漫画书陪伴他长大成人。来自白宫的消息称,他去年最爱看的电影是《火星救援The Martian)。After Leonard Nimoy, the actor who made the character Spock famous in the original “Star Trekseries, died last year, Obama released a statement: “Long before being nerdy was cool, there was Leonard Nimoy.”出演最初的《星际迷航》电视剧,并让斯波克(Spock)一角闻名遐迩的演员伦纳德·尼莫伊(Leonard Nimoy)去世后,奥巴马发表了一份声明:“早在书呆子气被视为一种酷之前,我们有伦纳德·尼莫伊。”Obama described Spock with many of the same adjectives often used to describe Obama: “Cool, logical, big-eared and levelheaded, the center of Star Trek’s optimistic, inclusive vision of humanity’s future.”人们常常用来形容奥巴马的很多言辞,都被奥巴马用来描绘斯波克:“酷,有逻辑,耳朵大,头脑清醒,是《星际迷航》关于人类未来的乐观包容愿景的核心。”“I loved Spock,Obama concluded.“我爱斯波克,”奥巴马总结道。Obama’s ing lists are peppered with science and science fiction titles such as Elizabeth Kolbert’s “The Sixth Extinction,Atul Gawande’s “Being Mortaland Liu Cixin’s “The Three-Body Problem.”奥巴马的阅读书目中,穿插着一些科学读物和科幻小说的名字,比如伊丽莎白·科尔伯特(Elizabeth Kolbert)的《第六次灭绝The SixthExtinction),阿图尔·加万Atul Gawande)的《身为凡人Being Mortal),以及刘慈欣的《三体》。But Obama’s grasp of real science before becoming president was sketchy. He once admitted to a room full of scientists to not doing “well enough in chemistry or physics to impress you much on those topics.And some scientists who met Obama before the presidency said they were not wowed by his grasp of their fields.但当上总统前,奥巴马对真正的科学只有粗略的了解。有一次,他在一屋子科学家面前承认,他的“化学或物理”并未“好到在谈论这类话题时能让你们印象深刻的程度”。和出任总统前的奥巴马有过接触的一些科学家说,那时候,他对他们所在领域的了解,是让他们不以为然的。“His views at the time were just sort of developing,said Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton.“当时,他的观点在某种程度上还处于形成阶段,”普林斯顿大Princeton University)地球科学及国际事务教授迈克尔·奥本海默(Michael Oppenheimer)说。But he was always enthusiastic, several top government scientists said. Within days of his election in 2008, Obama became enmeshed in selecting those who would serve on his science advisory board.但政府的几位首席科学家说,他一直充满热情008年当选总统不久后,奥巴马就开始沉迷于为他的科学顾问委员挑选成员。“I was really surprised by the avidity of his interest,said Dr. Harold Varmus, who was a chairman of the board in its early days and was the director of the National Institutes of Health during the Clinton administration.“他的兴致勃勃让我十分惊讶,”曾在奥巴马的科学顾问委员会运行之初担任主席、还在克林顿治下担任过国立卫生研究院(National Institutes of Health)院长的哈罗德·瓦默Harold Varmus)士说。Researchers on the campus of the National Institutes of Health were abuzz for months after Obama’s visit there in December 2014, when he spoke extemporaneously about a lab he had just visited using such terms as “gel electrophoresis,“microplateand “multiparameter flow cytometer.The crowd gave a quiet science roar.奥巴马曾0142月到访国立卫生研究院,此后好几个月,那里的研究人员都在谈论他的来访。当时,他即兴谈及刚刚去过的一个实验室,口中不时冒出“凝胶电池”、“微孔板”、“多参数流式细胞术”之类的词语。人群发出了科学界特有的那种不甚响亮的惊呼。“I’d seen his speech, so I knew his remarks were impromptu,said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “Boom, he starts talking like a fundamental basic scientist, and he just blew everybody away.”“我看过他的演讲,因此我知道他的发言是即兴的,”国家过敏及传染性疾病研究所(National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases)所长安东尼·S·福奇(Anthony S. Fauci)士说。“忽然间,他开始像个地地道道的基础科学家一样说话,让所有人都大为惊讶。”来 /201608/458134In an election season where cybersecurity has been a major issue from Hillary Clinton’s email server to the hacks, believed to be tied to Russia, that compromised her campaign chairman and the Democratic National Committee 前阵子希拉里的邮件务器被黑客攻破,让她的竞选主席和民主党全国委员会陷入尴尬境地,导致网络安全问题成了本次美国大选的一大关注点。据认为入侵务器的黑客行动与俄罗斯有关。a group of computer scientists stumbled upon evidence possibly connecting a Donald Trump mail server to a separate server belonging to Russia’s Alfa Bank. 据《Slate》杂志报道,近日一群电脑科学家无意间发现了特朗普的邮件务器可能与俄罗斯阿尔法的一个独立务器相连接的据。The discovery, reported by Slate, came just as the New York Times reported that the FBI found no direct link between the Trump Organization and the Russian government.而就在此前《纽约时报》刚报道称美国联邦调查局没有发现特朗普组织与俄罗斯政府之间存在直接联系。Following revelations about the DNC hacks over the summer, a group of computer scientists wanted to look into whether the Trump campaign had been similarly compromised by hackers.就在今夏曝出民主党全国委员会被黑的丑闻后,一群电脑科学家想调查一下特朗普的竞选活动是否也同样遭到黑客的攻击。We wanted to help defend both campaigns, because we wanted to preserve the integrity of the election, 其中一位网络安全专家告诉《Slate》杂志的富兰克林.弗尔说,我们想帮助守卫竞选双方的网络安全,因为我们想保持大选的公正性。one of the cybersecurity experts told Slate’s Franklin Foer upon condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of his work.因为他工作性质的关系,这位专家没有透露自己的名字。In the act of trying to uncover any malware that might be affecting Trump servers, a scientist who asked to be referred to by the pseudonym Tea Leaves detected what he thought was Russian-originating malware that had the destination domain Trump in its name.为了捕获可能影响特朗普务器的任何恶意软件,一位化名为茶叶的科学家探查到他认为是源于俄罗斯的恶意软件,软件目标域名包含特朗普。Tea Leaves ended up finding that the Alfa Bank, a Moscow-based financial institution whose leaders have ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, had a server that was irregularly pinging a server registered to the New York-based Trump Organization.茶叶最后发现阿尔法是一家总部在莫斯科的金融机构,它的高管们与俄罗斯总统普京有联系,而且该有一个务器与总部在纽约的特朗普组织注册的一个务器之间有不规则的共振。Computer logs indicate there were thousands of digital contacts. 电脑日志显示,这两个务器间有数千条数据联系。The logs suggested that Trump and Alfa had configured something like a digital hotline connecting the two entities, shutting out the rest of the world, and designed to obscure its own existence, Foer writes.弗尔写道:日志显示,特朗普和阿尔法已经安装了某种类似于数据热线的东西,将两台务器连在一起,这样便可以把世界上的其他所有人屏蔽出去,不让人发现任何痕迹。But according to the latest report, no clear evidence of wrongdoing was found.不过,根据最新报道,并没有发现特朗普有不正当邮件往来的任何确切据。A US cybersecurity firm hired by a Russian bank to investigate allegations of a secret line of communication with the Trump Organization said on Tuesday there was no evidence so far of substantive contact, email or financial links.一家俄罗斯雇佣了一个美国网络安全公司去调查与特朗普组织有联系的这条秘密线路,并于周二表示到目前为止尚未发现任何表明二者有实质接触、邮件往来或经济联系的据。Mandiant, which is owned by the California-based company FireEye, said it examined internet server logs presented to the bank by media organisations investigating the link and found nothing suspicious.这家公司名叫Mandiant,隶属于总部位于加利福尼亚州的火眼公司。Mandiant公司表示它查看了调查这一线路的媒体机构呈给的网络务器日志,没有发现任何可疑的据。来 /201611/475746

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