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2019年10月16日 06:14:27    日报  参与评论()人

重庆星辰医学正规的吗重庆星宸美容几点开门Imagine that Britain’s Labour party had replaced Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband before they contested a general election. 想象一下,假如英国工党(Labour party)在大选之前把戈登.布朗(Gordon Brown)或埃米利班德(Ed Miliband)换了下来,In all likelihood, there would have been no Tory government, and therefore no referendum on the EU and therefore no exit from it.那么很可能,现在的英国政府将不会是保守党政府,退欧公投就不会举行,英国也就不会退欧。Imagine that Hillary Clinton had swung 100,000 votes across three US states Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania that elected and re-elected Barack Obama. 想象一下,如果希拉克林Hillary Clinton)在威斯康星州、密歇根州和宾夕法尼亚州这三个在上两次大选中都投票持巴拉克.奥巴Barack Obama)的州多赢得了10万张选票,The world would now be stifling a yawn at the resilience of mainstream politics against reactionary stresses.那么,世界现在将有些索然无味地目睹坚韧的主流政治又一次抵挡住了反动压力。Those of us who follow politics are suckers for the epic: when electorates do strange things, we want to believe we are living through a kink in history. 我们这些追踪政治动态的人都有史诗情结:当选民做了奇怪的事情,我们想相信自己正在经历着历史的转折。When the world’s two stablest democracies vote for change, it must be the end of liberalism or the hollowing out of the middle class or something comparably grandiose at work. 当世界上两个最稳定的民主国家投票持改变时,这一定是自由主义的终结、中产阶层空心化、或其他什么同样宏大的因素在起作用。To blame it on particularities, such as the left’s saintly patience with mediocre leaders in recent years, is somehow unsatisfying.把这怪罪到一些特殊状况(例如近年来左翼对平庸领导人表现出来的圣人般的耐心)的头上,似乎不能令人满意。Maybe this year will turn out to be a lasting twist in the world story from liberalism to non-liberalism. 今年或许将标志着世界历史从自由主义到非自由主义的一次持久转折。But the grounds for believing so amount to one close referendum and one even closer election. 但是,这一观点所基于的理由,也只不过是一次很悬的退欧公投和一次更悬的美国大选。The first is yet to be implemented, or even defined, and the second, whose implications are as ambiguous as the views of Donald Trump, that big-government free-marketeer, that Keynesian Reaganite, is reversible in four years time. 退欧尚未付诸实施,甚至尚未得到界定;而美国大选的影响尚不确定,唐纳德.特朗Donald Trump)这位大政府和自由市场、凯恩斯-里根主义的信奉者也可能在四年时间里转变观点。Americans have just elected a man who wants to cut taxes and repeal financial regulations. 美国人刚选出一个想减税和废除金融法规的总统,米利班德已由此推断出,旧的经济安排——他指的是自由主义——已经死了。From this, Mr Miliband has inferred that the old economic settlement, by which he means liberalism, is dead.The only intelligible lesson of 2016 is that William Goldman’s verdict on Hollywood Nobody knows anything, said the screenwriter applies to matters of state. 2016年唯一明白易懂的教训就是,编剧威廉.戈德William Goldman)对好莱坞的评判——没人懂任何事情——也适用于国家事务。Forecasting political events is as inexact a science as picking a commercial hit out of a dozen submitted screenplays, and less fun. 预测政治事件是一项不精确的科学,就像从十几个提交上来的剧本中挑一个能火的剧本一样,而且更不好玩。Having failed to predict these events, we should leave it a while before extrapolating from them the end of the postwar order of trading nations secured by American military guarantees, or even the post-1979 move to globalisation.如果没有预测到这些事件,我们应该暂且把它们放下,不要马上就由这些事件推断战后相互贸易的国家由美国保障的秩序走到了尽头、甚979年后开始的全球化进程走到了尽头。This confident account, aired as though it had aly happened in the days after Mr Trump’s election, has western nations tumbling like dominoes to autarky and a suspicion of all foreigners bar certain favoured strongmen. 这种自信的描述——似乎它描述的事情在特朗普当选之后的这些天里真发生了一样——导致西方国家像多米诺骨牌一样一个接一个倒向了自给自足、倒向了对所有外国人的怀疑——只除了某些受青睐的强人。It holds out hope for high-minded Germany as the point of fixity in the storm, like one of its classy midfielders decorating a mindless game of football with some cultured passes.这种描述寄希望于高尚的德国能在风暴中保持岿然不动,就像优秀的德国中场球员用优雅的传球装点一场心不在焉的足球赛那样。This assumes rather a lot: that Mr Trump, who has aly softened his line on various subjects, meant what he said over the past 18 months; that what he said had a consistent anti-liberal theme; that EU exit will leave Britain less not more open as an economy; that European populism, from France to Italy, will break through over the coming year; that statist change in the west will not be offset by market reforms elsewhere. 这里包含了太大的假设成分:要假设已在各个不同问题上软化了自己立场的特朗普,会对自己在过去18个月里说过的话说到做到,并且他说过的话包含一以贯之的反自由主义主题;要假设退欧会让英国成为一个更封闭、而非更开放的经济体;要假设从法国到意大利的欧洲民粹主义,将在未来一年取得突破;要假设西方的国家主义变化不会被其他地方的市场改革所抵消。It is even presumptuous on the upside. 它寄以希望的地方看起来甚至是冒昧的——It counts on Germany, which was upset by revelations of American espionage two years ago, volunteering for the ugly burdens that are the lot of a hegemon.它指望对两年前披露出的美国间谍活动感到心烦的德国,主动承担起一个霸主必然免不了的讨厌负担。These hunches might be vindicated by events but what justifies the certainty in which they are couched? Who in 2008, as banks fell and governments acted, knew that right-of-centre parties would dominate the rich world eight years later? Why be sure of the shape of the rich world eight years from now?这些预感可能会被后面发生的事件实,但现在有什么理由把话说得如此确定呢008年,当纷纷倒下、政府采取行动时,谁知道中右翼政党将在八年后主宰富裕世界?现在凭什么能肯定八年后富裕世界会是怎样的状况呢?Perhaps the worst will happen. 或许最坏的情况确实会发生。Or perhaps mainstream politicians will crib enough from the populists to neuter their electoral appeal without changing the fundamentals of our societies. 抑或主流政治人士会从民粹主义者那里借鉴足够多的东西,在不改变我们社会基本面的情况下,平息选民的吁求。This implies less low-skilled migration and a further gumming-up of the aly glacial work of agreeing trade deals. 这暗示着低技能移民变少,原本缓慢的达成贸易协议的进程进一步陷入胶着。Or maybe America, which gave Mrs Clinton more votes than her opponent and gives Mr Obama lavish approval ratings, will revert to the mean in 2020 even without these accommodations.又或者,020年,即便没有这些调整,给了希拉里多于对手的普选票数、也给了奥巴马很高持率的美国,将回归中庸。There are many plausible futures and liberals seem to reach for the bleakest one as self-punishment for their hubris 关于未来会怎样,目前存在许多种有道理的可能性,而自由主义者们似乎触及的是其中最暗淡的一种,作为对冷战后骄傲自大的自我惩罚。After the cold war, when Francis Fukuyama sensed the endpoint of mankind’s ideological evolution. 冷战之后,弗朗西福山(Francis Fukuyama)感觉到了人类意识形态发展的终点。In jeering his account of history as something that stopped in 1989, we have exchanged one teleology for another: the triumph of liberalism for its impending extinction.在嘲讽他的历史在1989年终结的说法时,我们把一种目的论换成了另一种目的论:把自由主义取得胜利换成了它即将消亡。Yes, he erred. 是的,福山错了。But the lesson was the importance of predictive humility. 但是,这个错误带给我们的教训是,在预测未来时保持谦卑非常重要。It was the cue to accept human affairs as more of a dog’s breakfast than a knowable epic, not to sell our shares in the distressed asset called market democracy. 它提示我们要接受现实,即人类的事情就是乱糟糟的一团、而不是一部可知的史诗,不要急着抛售我们在一份名为市场民主的不良资产中持有的股份。There is no end of history and there is no end to our hysteria.历史没有终点,人类的歇斯底里也没有终点。来 /201611/480015重庆星辰整形整形多少钱 Sharply contrasting approaches to the Orlando shootings from the two main US presidential candidates yesterday exposed a yawning gulf in their responses to terrorism and underscored the divisive and combustible role it is set to play in the November election.美国两位主要总统候选人昨日对奥兰多击事件作出反差鲜明的回应,揭示了他们在如何应对恐怖主义问题上的明显鸿沟,并突显了这个问题将对11月大选产生的分裂和煽动作用。Donald Trump, the Republicanspresumptive presidential nominee, accused America’s Muslims of failing to report dangerous radicalisation in their areas and called for more US citizens to be armed, as he doubled down on a hardline approach that he hopes will cement his credentials as an uncompromisingly hawkish president-in-waiting.共和党推定总统候选人唐纳#8226;特朗Donald Trump)指控美国的穆斯林未能报告自己所在当地出现的危险的激进化现象,并呼吁更多美国公民携带武器。他变本加厉地押注于强硬立场,希望这将夯实他作为一个决不妥协的鹰派总统候选人的资质。Mr Trump also played to the conspiracy theorists on the Republican side of politics, using interviews yesterday to hint opaquely at links between Barack Obama, the US president, and Islamist radicals.特朗普还迎合了共和党方面的阴谋理论家,利用昨日的访谈含沙射影地暗示美国总统巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)与伊斯兰主义激进分子之间存在联系。Mr Trump said that the president “either is not tough, not smart, or he’s got something else in mind He cast aspersions on the president’s motivations, saying people could not believe that the president did not mention the words “radical Islamic terrorism “There’s something going on,he said.特朗普表示,奥巴马总统“要么是不坚强,不聪明,要么是他还有别的什么念头”。他对美国总统的动机提出质疑,称人民简直无法相信总统到现在还没有用“激进的伊斯兰恐怖主义”这个表述。“肯定有点不可告人的事情,”他说。Hillary Clinton for the Democrats by contrast warned against demonising Islam and demanded a dedicated team tasked with tracking down lone-wolf terrorists, as well as tougher gun control laws, as she adopted a more measured tone.与此形成对比的是,民主党方面的希拉里#8226;克林Hillary Clinton)警告各方不要妖魔化伊斯兰,并要求组建一专职团队追查“独狼”恐怖分子,并收紧管制法律。她采取了更有分寸的基调。Terrorism has the potential to play a highly unpredictable role in the November election as public anxiety rises following the attacks in Paris, Brussels and San Bernardino, California.恐怖主义问题可能在11月美国大选中扮演一个高度不可预测的角色,因为在巴黎、布鲁塞尔和加利福尼亚州圣贝纳迪诺遭遇恐袭后,公众焦虑上升。Mr Trump’s words reflect a calculation that his aggressive rhetoric paid dividends during the Republican primaries and will continue to do so when voters go to the polls this autumn.特朗普的话反映出这样的盘算,即他在共和党初选阶段期间咄咄逼人的言论收效不错,并将在今年秋天选民去投票的时候继续奏效。Norm Ornstein, an expert on US politics at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, said however it was unclear that the tough talking that benefited Mr Trump in the fractious environment of the primaries would work in the general election.然而,立场保守的美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)的美国政治专家诺#8226;奥恩斯坦(Norm Ornstein)表示,尚不清楚在四分五裂的初选阶段让特朗普受益的强硬论调,在大选中是否也能打动选民。“Trump represents an enormous risk and right now people are not willing to take that risk,he said. The property investor’s initial reaction was “ego-driven, raw and insensitive. There was nothing about the victims. It was just ‘thanks to all of you who say I was right all along on terrorism”“特朗普代表着一个巨大的风险,眼下人们不愿承担这个风险,”他说。身为房地产投资者的特朗普的第一反应是“自我驱动、缺乏经验和不够敏感的。没有对受害者表示任何哀悼,而只是‘感谢所有那些说我在恐怖主义问题上一向正确的人们’。”Elizabeth Zechmeister, political science professor at Vanderbilt University, said that terrorism left people “less trusting, more authoritarian, more willing to give up their rights and the rights of others, more hawkish The question, however, was what constituted strong leadership: Mr Trump’s belligerence or Mrs Clinton’s experience.范德堡大Vanderbilt University)政治学教授伊丽莎#8226;切赫梅斯Elizabeth Zechmeister)表示,恐怖主义让人们“信任度降低,更拥护威权,更愿意放弃自己的权利和其他人的权利,更加鹰派”。但问题是,哪些质素构成强有力的领导:特朗普的好战还是希拉里的经验?“I think what we’re going to see in the campaign down the road is the candidates are going to try to project their own image of strength, resolution and resolve and push on the other candidate to reveal weakness,she said.“我认为在下一阶段的竞选中,我们将看到两位候选人试图树立自己强有力、坚决和坚定的形象,同时迫使对方暴露弱点,”她说。Mr Trump’s aggressive approach also carried security risks, analysts warned. Max Boot, a senior fellow in national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the US had done a better job than Europe in assimilating its Muslim population and that Mr Trump could undermine that record.分析人士警告,特朗普咄咄逼人的姿态还带有安全风险。美国对外关系委员会(Council on Foreign Relations)国家安全问题高级研究员马克斯#8226;布特(Max Boot)表示,美国在接纳和同化穆斯林人口方面一直比欧洲做得更好,而特朗普可能破坏这个记录。“He is turning Muslims into the enemy; it is very dangerous,he said. “We need those relations to be strong to get the kind of intelligence to stop terrorists before they strike.”“他正在把穆斯林推向敌人一边;这是非常危险的,”他说。“我们需要与穆斯林建立联系,才能变得强大,获得能够在恐袭发生之前制止恐怖分子的情报。”The killings also reignited America’s debate over gun control. Mr Obama said yesterday that the US needed to think about the risks it was taking by being “so lax in how we make very powerful firearms available to people in this country奥兰多屠杀事件也再度引燃美国围绕管制的辩论。奥巴马昨日表示,美国需要深思“我们国家让人们这么容易获得火力强大的械”给自己带来的风险。Mr Trump, on the other hand, told CNN that if more people in the Pulse nightclub had been armed with guns the same kind of tragedy would not have taken place because they could have returned fire.另一方面,特朗普对美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)表示,如果脉Pulse)夜总会当时有更多人带着,他们就可以开还击,这场悲剧就不至于这么血腥。Stephen Craig, director of the political campaigning programme at the University of Florida, said Mr Trump was unlikely to win votes if he continued to talk about the attacks in an inflammatory way. “He’s not saying intelligent things,he said. “As much as anything it’s ‘Oh my God what would this guy do with the nuclear codes?’”佛罗里达大University of Florida)政治活动课程主任斯蒂#8226;克雷Stephen Craig)表示,如果特朗普继续以煽动性的方式谈论恐袭,他就不太可能赢得选票。“他的话不可理喻,”他“除了其他事情外,人们会想‘天哪,让这家伙掌握核武器发射密码不知道会发生什么?”There were signs in polls taken before the Orlando killings that many voters are uneasy with Mr Trump’s ability to handle a crisis and the responsibilities of the presidency. A national survey taken by Gallup in May found 48 per cent of people thought Mrs Clinton “would display good judgment in a crisisversus 39 per cent for Mr Trump.在奥兰多恐袭之前进行的民意调查中,有迹象表明许多选民对特朗普处理危机和总统职责的能力感到不放心。盖洛普(Gallup)月进行的一项全国调查发现,48%的人认为希拉里“将在危机中展现良好的判断力”,只有39%的人对特朗普作出这样的评判。来 /201606/449275The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague released a stinging rebuke to China in last week’s ruling on the arbitration case brought by the Philippines. 海牙常设仲裁法院上周在菲律宾对中国提起的仲裁案的裁决中,发布了对中国强烈的指责。Philippine presidents Benigno Aquino III and Rodrigo Duterte both risked their relations with China by initiating and in the latter case not acquiescing to Chinese demands that they withdraw the case. 菲总统贝尼尼奥阿基诺三世和罗德里戈·杜特尔特都发起并在随后的诉讼中没有默许中国的关于他们撤销诉讼的要求,将与中国的关系置于险地。The Philippines should be strongly supported by the ed States and our allies in this moment of need including through U.S. naval enforcement of the ruling and U.S. ratification of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. 在这一时刻,菲律宾应得到美国和我们的盟国的大力持,包括通过美国海军执行裁决和美国对联合国海洋法公约的正式批准。来 /201607/455991重庆星辰地址电话

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重庆星辰皮肤有整形美容吗Republican elders who had lined up to heap opprobrium on Donald Trump during his corrosive campaign came out one by one yesterday to congratulate him as the party emerged transformed from his victory.昨日,曾在唐纳德.特朗Donald Trump)具有腐蚀性的竞选中公开指责他的共和党元老们,一个接一个地出面向特朗普表示祝贺。该党在特朗普获胜后转身。From the Bush family, which had a contentious relationship with Mr Trump, former President George HW Bush called the winner to wish him luck. 在曾与特朗普关系不佳的布什家族,前总统乔治#8226;HW#8226;布什(George HW Bush)给这位获胜者打了电话,祝他好运。Jeb Bush, who once called his former rival the chaos candidate, said he would pray for the billionaire.曾在初选期间称特朗普为混乱候选人的杰布什(Jeb Bush)表示,他将为这位亿万富翁祈祷。Mitt Romney, who had called Mr Trump a phoney, a fraud, sent his best wishes. 曾把特朗普称为骗子、假货的米特.罗姆Mitt Romney)向特朗普发出最美好的祝愿。And Paul Ryan, the top-ranking official in Congress who refused to defend Mr Trump during his campaign, said the Republican heard a voice out in this country that no one else heard.国会中最资深的共和党官员保罗.瑞安(Paul Ryan)表示,共和党人特朗普听到了这个国家发出的其他人没有听到的心声。在特朗普竞选过程中,瑞安拒绝给予持。Mr Ryan held a press conference yesterday. 昨日,瑞安举行了一场记者招待会。As he attempted to heal a rift between his party establishment and Trump-inspired populists, an effort that began when he called Mr Trump and his running mate Mike Pence to congratulate them on Tuesday night.他试图修复共和党建制派和受到特朗普鼓舞的民粹主义者之间的分歧,这种努力开始于周二晚,当时他给特朗普和他的竞选拍档迈彭斯(Mike Pence)打了祝贺电话。But his assertion that Donald Trump will lead a unified Republican government only served to highlight doubts about whether that will be the case and whether Mr Ryan himself, a one-time golden boy and 2012 vice-presidential candidate, will survive.但他的唐纳德.特朗普将领导一个团结的共和党政府的断言,恰恰凸显出人们对于这是否将成为现实,以及曾经的金童012年副总统候选人瑞安本人能不能坐稳职位的疑问。Mr Trump’s alleged sexual assaults and divisive attacks on women, Mexicans and Muslims alienated him from two groups: mainstream Republican lawmakers and ultraconservatives. 特朗普据称存在的性侵行为,以及对于女性、墨西哥人和穆斯林的制造分裂的攻击,使他疏远了两大群体:主流共和党议员和极端保守主义者。So did his hostility to free trade, his aversion to reforming the expensive social security system and his support for fiscal plans that would send the national debt soaring.他对自由贸易的敌对、不愿改革代价高昂的社会保障体系,以及持将让国家债务剧增的财政计划,也起到了这一效果。But his barnstorming victory, which consolidated Republican control of Congress and carried many vulnerable lawmakers to comfortable wins, leaves many in the party with the choice of embracing Mr Trump or being left out in the cold.但他在选举中的大胜巩固了共和党对国会的控制,让许多地位脆弱的议员轻松获胜,使得共和党内许多人面临要么接受特朗普、要么遭到冷落的选择。Stephen Myrow, a former George W Bush administration official now at Beacon Policy Advisors, said that whatever reservations Republicans such as the Bushes had once harboured were now irrelevant.乔治#8226;W#8226;布什(George W Bush)政府官员、现供职于Beacon Policy Advisors的斯蒂芬.迈洛(Stephen Myrow)表示,无论布什家族等共和党人对特朗普曾有哪些保留意见,这些如今都无关紧要了。Senator John McCain, who rescinded his endorsement of Mr Trump over his vulgar comments about groping women, told supporters after being re-elected in Arizona: I promise you, I will work as hard as I ever have, use all my knowledge and experience and relationships, and extend an open hand to our new president.参议员约麦凯John McCain)曾因特朗普有关猥亵女性的粗俗言论而收回自己的持。在亚利桑那州再次当选之后,麦凯恩告诉持者们:我向你们承诺,我将一如既往地努力工作,运用我的全部知识、经验和关系,并向我们的新总统伸出合作之手。来 /201611/477168 重庆市第一人民医院好?重庆星辰美容医院是正规医院?

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